---

Guest Column

Food security has become a critical challenge for ASEAN, encompassing concerns about food availability, accessibility, utilisation, and stability—all fundamental to regional development and social stability. As climate change intensifies and geopolitical tensions rise, ASEAN's food systems face mounting pressure.

Recent years have witnessed unprecedented disruptions to global food supply chains. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed significant vulnerabilities through border closures, labour shortages, and transport restrictions, which severely impacted the movement of agricultural products. The Russia-Ukraine conflict further destabilised global food networks, as these two countries jointly account for 25–30 percent of global wheat exports and 15 percent of corn exports. More recently, the escalating US-China trade tensions and proposed tariffs have threatened to further distort market prices, affecting the availability and affordability of essential commodities across Southeast Asia.

Climate change presents another challenge to regional food security. Increasingly frequent extreme weather events have endangered agricultural production across the region. Cropland area in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Vietnam is projected to decline by more than 10 percent by 2028 due to climate impacts if no action is taken. Rice production is projected to decline by 19 percent in Vietnam and 7 percent in Thailand, compared to 2021 levels. Additionally, studies have found that even a 1 percent rise in temperatures could increase food prices by 1–2 percent in four ASEAN countries and by as much as 6 percent in the Philippines.

ASEAN's heavy reliance on imports for critical commodities makes it especially vulnerable to international trade disruptions. Despite the growing regional demand for these commodities, domestic production remains insufficient to meet the rising needs. Furthermore, uneven technological adoption across member states complicates coordinated responses. Recognising these vulnerabilities, ASEAN has implemented several measures, including the ASEAN Comprehensive Recovery Framework adopted in 2020, and expanded the ASEAN Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve. However, as the region navigates this complex food security landscape, policymakers must balance immediate crisis management with long-term strategic planning.

Given this background, it is necessary to discuss a fundamental question: How can ASEAN ensure food security amidst increasing global supply chain disruptions? Specifically, what innovative and sustainable solutions should ASEAN put in place to enhance its food security? To address these questions, the Centre on Asia and Globalisation (CAG) invited four experts for its 14th Counterpoint Southeast Asia (CSA) public webinar on 18 March 2025: Elyssa Kaur Ludher (ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute; MORROW Intelligence), Genevieve Donnellon-May (The Red Line; Oxford Global Society; Indo-Pacific Studies Center), Mae Chow (Centre on Asia and Globalisation, LKYSPP, NUS), and Jose Ma Luis Montesclaros (S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU).

Elyssa Kaur Ludher emphasises the need for ASEAN to transition from policy to tangible action as the Vision and Strategic Plan on Food, Agriculture, and Forestry 2016-2025 concludes. She identifies four priority areas for implementation: increasing intra-regional trade, which is currently stagnant at under 30 percent; enhancing cross-sector enablers like research and development for climate-smart agriculture and digital inclusion; diversifying food stockpiles beyond rice; and protecting regional environmental commons, such as the coral triangle.

Genevieve Donnellon-May presents a multifaceted strategy centered on building resilience through diversification. She recommends transforming the ASEAN+3 Emergency Rice Reserve into a comprehensive regional food reserve system that includes staples beyond rice, such as wheat, soybeans, and maize. She also emphasises the importance of deepening partnerships with agricultural powerhouses like Australia and New Zealand while encouraging stronger intra-ASEAN trade to shield the bloc from external shocks.

Mae Chow focuses on three strategic areas: strengthening local food systems through improved production and reduction of food waste, fostering regional trade and cooperation through the removal of trade barriers, and leveraging technological innovations, particularly Artificial Intelligence (AI). She highlights that AI could increase global food productivity by up to 67 percent and reduce food prices by nearly 50 percent by 2050, providing a transformative tool for ASEAN to enhance climate resilience and supply chain efficiency.

Last but not least, Jose Ma Luis Montesclaros revisits ASEAN's principle of "collective self-resilience" as a foundational framework for regional food security. He examines how ASEAN member states can balance their dual mandates: contributing to regional food security while also protecting their domestic constituents from food-related threats. He proposes upgrading existing mechanisms, like the ASEAN Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve, and developing coordination mechanisms for production to provide farmers with consistent price and demand signals.

A key takeaway from this issue is that ASEAN must move beyond policy frameworks to achieve a coordinated implementation across multiple fronts. The complementary perspectives presented in the essays in this issue highlight the multidimensional nature of food security. While ASEAN has made significant progress through initiatives such as the ASEAN Food Security Information System, the current trajectory of climate impacts and geopolitical tensions necessitate more robust regional cooperation. Therefore, looking forward, ASEAN's pursuit of food security will require balancing the sovereign responsibilities of individual states with the imperative for collective action. Strengthening production capacities, diversifying supply sources, enhancing intra-regional trade, leveraging digital technologies, and protecting ecological commons will be essential components of resilient regional food security architecture.

The challenge ahead lies not in conceptualising solutions but in mobilising the political will, financial resources, and institutional capacities necessary for effective implementation across diverse national contexts. By embracing the principle of collective self-resilience and adopting a multi-pronged approach, ASEAN can build a more secure and sustainable food future for its population amidst increasing global supply chain disruptions.

Barbora Valockova is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Centre on Asia and Globalisation (CAG) at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore.

---

The views expressed in the article are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy or the National University of Singapore.

Image Credit: istock/AEKKARAT DOUNGMANEERATTANA

---