Centre on Asia and Globalisation
Major Power Relations
Globalisation and Trade
Geopolitics and Technology
International Relations of Southeast Asia

Geopolitics and Technology

Emergent and disruptive technologies (EDTs) such as cyberspace and artificial intelligence feature prominently in narratives, espousing a revolution in international affairs. Citing developments in terms of connectivity, efficiency, and scale, advocates assert significant influence over geopolitics. Nevertheless, no small amount of uncertainty exists surrounding the benefits and perils that emerge from the increased adoption of EDTs. Continued claims of their revolutionary potential without a clearer understanding of how EDTs drive policy or vice versa risk greater instability within an increasingly fragile international system. Consequently, CAG seeks to understand better how technologies such as cyberspace and artificial intelligence are employed to pursue a state’s strategic objectives and its implications for the international system.

First among these is a multi-method study tackling how cybersecurity features in bilateral alliances in the Indo-Pacific – specifically with the United States. The focus on the Indo-Pacific reflects the reality that cyber conflict is an enduring component of regional strategic competition. Furthermore, these conflicts occur in the context of highlighting salient rivalries such as the South China Sea dispute. Considering this, the project utilizes in-depth case studies when investigating how cybersecurity evolved from a question of law enforcement to a national security issue worthy of inclusion as an alliance obligation. Complementing this, the project also addresses whether the distinct nature of cyber conflict affects the willingness of the public to support the commitments expected of their country. We achieve this by conducting cross-national public opinion surveys between 2021 and 2023. Although the project is ongoing, the initial findings have been published in outlets such as the Journal of Peace Research and International Interactions.

The second project attempts to unpack the mechanisms that drive trust in AI-based decision-support systems (DSS) during times of crisis. While still in its nascent stages, this project responds to the growing adoption of these AI-based solutions by military and political leaders despite the uncertainty surrounding their use. The risks associated with these solutions were made apparent in the ongoing conflict in Gaza when a report claimed that Israeli operations had put too much trust in their Lavender DSS, resulting in significant civilian casualties.