Guest Column
Sino-Indian Frontier Dilemma: A Potential Stalemate?
By Nazia Hussain
Image credit: flickr/BMN Network
After nine months and nine rounds of Corps Commander-level talks, the ground situation in the Sino-Indian frontier region remains locked in a stalemate with neither side willing to vacate positions gained from strategic advances made last year, or reach any consensus on pulling back troops—currently at 100,000 personnel—along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbours hit a historic low with the deadly border clashes in May 2020 in the Galwan Valley—an area between Indian-controlled Ladakh and Chinese-controlled Aksai Chin. At least 20 Indian soldiers were killed while Beijing has declined to confirm casualties on its side. The two countries accused each other of incursions into the disputed territory and contended that shots had been fired by the other side along the border for the first time in 45 years.
Ensuing rounds of high-level military talks proved inconclusive due to disagreements over the conditions of disengagement. While India has been advocating disengagement and de-escalation along all points of friction in eastern Ladakh, China insists the Indian army first pull back troops deployed on strategic heights on the south bank of the Pangong Tso—a glacier lake that stretches from Tibet to Ladakh. Ahead of the ninth round of military talks, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said that India will not reduce troops along the friction points “unless China reduces the deployment of troops on its side”.
The latest round of military talks between the Indian Army and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) took place last month which stretched into a 16-hour marathon culminating in a joint statement that the talks had been “positive and constructive” with both sides agreeing to hold the 10th round at an early date to “jointly advance de-escalation.” The statement, however, failed to produce any tangible results. This does not come as a surprise seeing the hardening of positions on both sides—earlier this year, Indian Army Chief M. M. Naravane stated that India was “ready for the long haul” and its troops were prepared to hold their ground in eastern Ladakh “for as long as it takes”. Meanwhile, the PLA has moved back at least 10,000 soldiers from depth areas to rear positions, likely owing to extreme weather conditions, but no changes have been reported on its frontline deployments.
The Boundary Question
While high-level military talks are important to keep the channels of communication open, future episodes of skirmishes along the LAC will likely continue so long as the boundary question remains unresolved. According to Indian government reports, there had been 1,025 instances of Chinese troops “transgressing” into Indian territory between 2016 and 2018. Even as the ninth round of talks were to be held between the two militaries, reports emerged of a fresh scuffle on January 20 between Chinese and Indian troops along the disputed border at Naku La which connects the Indian state of Sikkim with Tibet. Although the Indian Army downplayed the incident as a “minor face-off” and the PLA claimed there was no record of this incident in their front line patrol logs, failure to clarify the LAC will perennially cast a shadow on bilateral relations. An early settlement of the boundary question serves the fundamental interests of both countries. As such, Beijing and New Delhi would do well to renew boundary talks aimed at delimitation of the border. The last round of border talks were held in December 2019.
New Points of Contention
As the boundary question hangs over bilateral relations between the two countries, new points of contention have only added layers to the already complex relationship. Reports about the construction of a new Chinese village of more than a hundred homes between August 2019 and November 2020 along the border with India’s northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh—which China considers a part of southern Tibet—have raised new potential flashpoints. The eastern sector of the disputed LAC has a higher density of inhabitants and an escalation of tensions in this area would prove deadly as compared to current hostilities in the relatively sparsely-populated western sector.
Water issues also threaten to become another geopolitical flashpoint in Sino-Indian relations. Beijing’s announcement of plans to build a mega dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo river, otherwise known as the Brahmaputra in India, is worrying for New Delhi. The trans-boundary river originates from Tibet and flows into Arunachal Pradesh, passing through the plains of Assam into Bangladesh before merging with the Bay of Bengal. Damming the river could potentially lead to water scarcity or trigger flash floods in India as a lower riparian state. While most experts agree that the volume of water in the Brahmaputra as it flows through Arunachal Pradesh and beyond comes from catchments on the Indian side, the perception that China could seriously affect the water flow remains.
Moreover, although the two countries have a hydrological data sharing agreement in place, India remains apprehensive that China may stop sharing data of water flow levels from its dams as it did during the Doklam stand-off in 2017. The data is crucial to warn downstream areas in the event of floods. Though data sharing resumed in 2018, New Delhi is concerned of a repeat.
Geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific
Apart from contentious bilateral issues, the geopolitics of the day also have a hand in charting the future trajectory of Sino-Indian relations. The current border hostilities may simmer down eventually, but both countries remain wary of the other’s intentions. Beijing is concerned about New Delhi’s increasingly close ties with Washington and contents of the recently declassified 2018 document on America’s Indo-Pacific strategy confirm these concerns. The document noted the US’s intention to provide “support to India through diplomatic, military, and intelligence channels—to help address continental challenges such as the border dispute with China and access to water, including the Brahmaputra and other rivers facing diversion by China.”
Moreover, China regards India’s role in the Indo-Pacific and the Quad—which Beijing perceives is a China-containment strategy—as geo-strategic posturing. India, on the other hand, remains worried about Chinese influence, particularly through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), over South Asian nations traditionally thought to be in India’s sphere of influence.
Despite the current geopolitical climate wherein New Delhi may want to seek support of like-minded countries, India is unlikely to abandon its traditional foreign policy of non-alignment which allows it a broader strategic playing field. India still prefers to avoid taking a confrontational stand, especially when it remains active in multilateral arrangements such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and the BRICS grouping. Under the circumstances, Sino-Indian relations may very well remain locked in a stalemate with both sides unwilling to give concessions but also reluctant to escalate tensions owing to their own strategic calculations.
Nazia Hussain is a Senior Analyst with the Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS) at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore. Her research interests include multilateral security cooperation in ASEAN; Indian Ocean security; sub-regional cooperation in South Asia; and Sino-Indian relations. Nazia holds a Masters in Asian Studies from RSIS.
The views expressed in the article are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy or the National University of Singapore.
News Reports
Bilateral relations
China, India armies disengage, ‘breakthrough in returning to peace’
Global Times, February 10
Frontline troops of the Chinese and Indian armies stationed at the southern and northern banks of the Pangong Tso began simultaneous, scheduled disengagement on Wednesday (February 10), according to Wu Qian, a spokesperson at China’s Ministry of National Defense.
India, China agree to continue engagement on UNSC agenda amid LAC standoff
Livemint, February 9
The Indian delegation briefed the Chinese side on India’s priorities during its UNSC tenure, a statement said.
Chinese envoy: More people-to-people exchanges can inject positive energy in Sino-Indian ties
CGTN, February 9
China and India must look to enhance people-to-people exchanges in the future to infuse positive energy into bilateral ties, the Chinese envoy to New Delhi said in a video message on Monday (February 8).
India has transgressed LAC more often than China: V.K. Singh
The Hindu, February 7
“Let me assure you, if China has transgressed 10 times, we must have done it at least 50 times,” said the Union Minister and former army chief.
India’s Military Sees Small Budget Rise Despite China Standoff
Bloomberg Quint, February 2
India increased its defense spending by about 1%, throwing the timing of its military modernization program into doubt while it faces a protracted standoff with China along their disputed Himalayan border.
China says border issue with India will not be linked with bilateral ties
Livemint, January 31
The border issue between China and India shall not be linked with bilateral relations, said Zhao Lijian, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson.
News Reports
China and India in the Region
Biden calls India's Modi, seeks to strengthen regional security through “Quad” grouping
Reuters, February 9
Biden spoke to Modi on Monday (February 8) night in his first call since taking office last month and noted that India-U.S. ties were held together by a shared commitment to democratic values.
Russia, China, and Iran to hold joint naval drills in Indian Ocean soon - RIA
Today Online, February 8
Russia plans to hold joint naval drills with Iran and China in the Indian Ocean later this month, the RIA news agency cited Moscow's ambassador to Tehran as saying on Monday (February 8).
US, Japan, Australia, India plan summit amid China's growing clout, says Sankei newspaper
The Straits Times, February 7
Australia, Japan, the United States and India plan to hold a summit to strengthen ties amid China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region, the Sankei newspaper reported, citing unidentified government officials.
India approves 100,000 Covishield doses for China ally Cambodia
The Times of India, February 5
The move has taken India’s vaccine diplomacy deep into Southeast Asia
To counter China, India willing to share military hardware with Indian Ocean Region allies
Livemint, February 4
“India is ready to supply various types of missile systems, light combat aircraft, helicopters, multi-purpose light transport aircraft, warship and patrol vessels, artillery gun systems, tanks, radars, military vehicles, electronic warfare systems and other weapons systems to IOR countries,” according to Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh.
News Reports
Trade and Economy
Foreign firms look to reduce reliance on China, poll shows
South China Morning Post, February 7
Strategy known as ‘China Plus One’ sees companies boosting operations in Vietnam, India and elsewhere.
India suspends anti-dumping duty on some steel products from China
Reuters, February 1
India said on Monday (February 1) it will temporarily withdraw duties on some steel products imposed to stop dumping mainly from China, after a spike in domestic prices hit job-creating small and mid-sized manufacturing companies.
In annual budget, India vows to boost spending to revive economy
Al Jazeera, February 1
India to double healthcare spending, increase cap on foreign investment in insurance to boost the industry.
China still ‘largest source of critical items’ for India
The Hindu, January 31
“The trade deficit is not in dollars, it is in overdependence,” said Sanjay Chadha, Additional Secretary in the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
News Reports
Energy and Environment
India to overtake EU as world's third largest energy consumer by 2030: IEA
Business Standard, February 9
IEA forecast India accounting for the biggest share of energy demand growth over the next two decades.
Nearly 5 Deaths Per Minute In India Due To Fossil Fuels Burning: Report
NDTV, February 9
In 2018, more than 8.7 million people around the globe died from fossil fuel pollution, the report estimates.
Rescuers search for about 170 missing after India glacier disaster, many believed trapped in tunnel
Channel News Asia, February 8
Rescuers searched for more than 170 people missing in the Indian Himalayas on Monday (Feburary 8), including some trapped in a tunnel, after part of a glacier broke away, sending a torrent of water, rock and dust down a mountain valley.
Govt inspectors accuse China's energy agency of negligence in environmental protection
The Straits Times, January 30
A Chinese central government inspection team has accused the country's energy administration of negligence in environmental protection, failing to control new coal power capacity in key polluted areas.
Analyses
India should prioritise a denial strategy in the Indian Ocean
The Interpreter, February 9
By Arzan Tarapore, Research Scholar on South Asia, Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University; and Senior Nonresident Fellow, National Bureau of Asian Research
The stand-off with China in the Himalayas has raised a broader debate about India’s strategic outlook.
Are Indian politicians serious about ousting Chinese vendors, apps?
Global Times, February 8
By Dai Yonghong, Director, Institute of Bay of Bengal Studies, Shenzhen University
Chinese smartphone vendors in 2020 grew their market share in India despite the headwinds caused by New Delhi from border clashes to economic conflicts.
China does not like the coup in Myanmar
East Asia Forum, February 6
By Enze Han, Associate Professor, Department of Politics and Public Administration, University of Hong Kong
Since the military coup in Myanmar on 1 February 2021, there have been reports and allegations that China approves of or is able to spin the military takeover to its advantage. This is unlikely to be true.
Why Tensions Between China and India Won't Boil Over
The National Interest, February 2
By Rafiq Dossani, Director, RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy; Senior Economist, RAND Corporation; and Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Leadership on both sides could help by focusing on the long-term gains in a spirit of give-and-take.
China’s vision of hegemony: the view from India
The Strategist, February 1
By Vijay Gokhale, former Indian foreign secretary and ambassador to China
The balance of power in the Indian Ocean is undergoing a significant change as countries from outside the region begin to establish a permanent presence there.
Books and Journals
Making India Great: The Promise of a Reluctant Global Power
HarperCollins, January 2021
By Aparna Pande, Director, Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia, Hudson Institute, Washington D.C.
India will be the world’s most populous country by 2024 and its third largest economy by 2028. But the size of our population and a sense of historical greatness alone are insufficient to guarantee we will fulfil our ambition to become a global power. Our approach to realize this vision needs more than just planning for economic growth. It requires a shift in attitudes.
In Making India Great, Aparna Pande examines the challenges we face in the areas of social, economic, military and foreign policy and strategy. She points to the dichotomy that lies at the heart of the nation: our belief in becoming a global power and the reluctance to implement policies and take actions that would help us achieve that goal.
The New India holds all the promise of greatness many of its citizens dream of. Can it become a reality? The book delves into this question.
Compiled and sent to you by Centre on Asia and Globalisation and the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore.
Have any feedback or comment? Email us
cag@nus.edu.sg
Subscribe