China-India Brief #168

Guest Column

India and the Quad: Future Directions and International Relations Theory

By Baohui Zhang

Image credit: Flickr/U.S. Indo-Pacific Command

The deadly June 15 clash between the militaries of China and India has led to a significant rise in tensions along their border. Both sides have deployed increasing amounts of military assets in the region to prepare for worst-case scenarios. In this context, India has increased its internal balancing efforts by strengthening existing military capabilities, most notably through recent orders of military hardware from Russia, including jetfighters, missiles, and main battle tanks.

In addition, New Delhi has also been exploring the option of external balancing by deepening its security cooperation with regional partners. In particular, the Quadrilateral mechanism, the so-called Quad, that includes the United States (US), Japan, Australia, and India, has gained attention as a potential way for India to boost its position vis-a-vis China. Many of India’s security pundits have urged the government to pursue a more proactive approach toward the Quad. Arun Prakash, former chief of the Indian Navy, argued in an op-ed for The Indian Express that “The time for ambivalence is over and while India will have to fight its own territorial battles with determination, this is the moment to seek external balancing. A formal revival and re-invigoration of the Quad is called for.”
 
It seems that New Delhi has been responding to the call. During a virtual meeting on September 11, senior Indian and US government officials “agreed to further strengthen consultation through United States-India-Australia-Japan quadrilateral consultations.” Moreover, it has been reported that India has invited Australia to take part in the annual Malabar naval exercise, which previously included only India, Japan and the US. 

However, support for the Quad has not been unanimous within India. An editorial in The Hindu pointed out that while border conflicts “have convinced New Delhi that new strategies will be required to deal with Beijing”, India needs to act cautiously with the idea of reformulating its relations with the Quad. One reason is that the Quad may not offer real solutions to India’s security problems. As the editorial argued, “India is the only country in the Quad that shares a land boundary with China, and it is unclear how the militarization of the Quad in the Indo-Pacific waters would alleviate the territorial threat it faces.” 

In fact, skepticism over India’s relationship with the Quad is nothing new. From its inception, the Quad has presented itself as a possible strategic quagmire for India. Aayush Mohanty, in a 2018 study of India’s internal and external balancing options, questioned the security commitment of India’s three Quad partners. Since India is the only country among the Quad that shares a land boundary with China and has no formal military alliance with the US, “This raises the question of whether or not when push comes to shove, will the other members of the ‘Quad’ put their weight behind it?” Therefore, Mohanty urges caution on the part of India: “if this security dialogue ever takes a turn towards a military alliance, India should not engage at all” and do nothing more than “ensure the rule of law is upheld in the international order”.

The question is whether the recent tension between China and India have fundamentally changed the security context of New Delhi’s strategic calculations, making the Quad option more appealing and urgent, just as some have urged? This article suggests that international relations (IR) theory can offer important insights into the future direction of India’s relationship with the Quad.

Various perspectives from realist IR theory for instance, predict caution on the part of India and the continuation of its current strategic contours in the coming years. Under neorealism, Kenneth Waltz argued that the anarchic order of international relations motivates states to use both internal and external balancing to achieve security. More recent studies have taken this idea further, proposing that great powers typically prioritize internal balancing over external balancing. The reason is that internal balancing is the more reliable option for them. Commitment has always been an issue for members of alliances. For member countries to refuse to render help at a critical moment is not uncommon. Therefore, great powers, which typically possess vast aggregates of power, prefer to increase their own military capabilities to achieve security. In contrast, small countries which have more limited internal balancing options have to rely on external balancing to gain security. 

India is a rising great power with rapidly expanding national capabilities. It already possesses vast conventional military power and is also a nuclear-armed country. In this context, the lure of external balancing is not attractive enough to fundamentally change India’s current security contour. This means that India will continue to emphasize internal balancing and its future relations with the Quad are unlikely to become ‘militarized’. 

The level of analysis issue in IR theory also sheds light on India’s future options. While Waltz’s neorealism (or structural realism) focuses on the effects of the anarchic international order, other approaches emphasize unit-level factors that also affect state behavior and policies. Therefore, not all countries respond similarly to the same structural incentives due to variations at the state-society level. For example, not all countries follow the same balancing logic when confronted with similar systemic pressures imposed by the anarchic order.

A particular state-level factor that is widely believed to exercise important effects on state security behaviours are the strategic cultures of different countries. Strategic culture represents a set of ideas that shapes a country’s understanding of security and ways to achieve security. India is well known for its strategic culture of emphasizing non-alignment, which has shaped its foreign policy for many decades. Ideas can have great staying power even when the external security context of a country has changed significantly. The reason is that ideas are essentially institutions and are thus subject to great inertia.

Thus, India’s strategic culture still matters and counters forces operating at the international systemic level. While the rise of China has significantly shifted the global balance of power, India’s non-alignment tradition is expected to exercise continuing restraint on how it responds to the balancing imperative. In this context, India is expected to continue prioritizing internal balancing, which preserves its strategic independence, rather than jumping on the bandwagon of external balancing.

Finally, IR scholars point out that instead of seeking alliances, states now tend to pursue alignments, which is the formation of strategic partnerships to achieve common objectives. When war was an instrument to gain power, conquest was considered a viable state strategy. Other countries inevitably faced life and death scenarios in that context and hard balancing, in the form of defensive alliances against predatory states, was an important state strategy for survival.

Today however, conquest has become a less viable option and countries, including the great powers, use non-military means to gain power, influence, and status. These include, for example, improving their economic competitiveness, technological innovation, and roles in international institutions.

As a result, great powers no longer pose fundamental security threats to each other. In this context, they resort to soft balancing, rather than hard balancing, to maintain a favourable international environment for their national interests. Alignments, as represented by strategic partnerships, are instruments of soft balancing.

The Quad is essentially a form of alignment. It is a coordinated network of strategic partnerships, not an alliance. Rather than seeking ‘militarization’ of the mechanism, India’s future relations with the Quad and the nature of the Quad itself will continue to reflect the soft balancing dynamics of twenty-first century international relations.

Baohui Zhang is Professor of Political Science and Director of Centre for Asian Pacific Studies at Lingnan University, Hong Kong.

The views expressed in the article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy or the National University of Singapore.

News Reports

Bilateral relations

India-China dispute: India hands over soldier who crossed border
BBC, October 21

A Chinese soldier has been handed back by Indian authorities after he strayed across a contested border in the Himalayan region, army officials said.

India-China prep for 8th round of border talks. Accident is the big concern
Hindustan Times, October 19

Neither side is impatient over resolution at the friction points in Ladakh, but have decided to keep the dialogue channels open at both the military commander level and diplomatic levels, senior officials said.

China insists Indians vacate Chushul heights, India says clear Pangong north
The Indian Express, October 17

Sources said Delhi is insisting on simultaneous withdrawal of forces from the Pangong north bank — where Chinese troops have crossed the point which India says marks the LAC — and advanced Indian positions on the south bank to mutually agreed locations.

‘New arms race’: border roads put India and China on route to conflict
South China Morning Post, October 10

An infrastructure ‘arms race’ along China and India’s disputed Himalayan border has put the two countries on a collision course. Both sides are trying to ‘strengthen and enhance their tactical advantage’, says one.

India test-fires 10 missiles in 35 days. It is not a coincidence
Hindustan Times, October 10

The DRDO’s effort to fast-track development of ‘Made in India’ strategic nuclear and conventional missiles comes against the backdrop of China’s refusal to step back from the LAC.

China-India relations go far beyond bilateral ties: Chinese ambassador
Xinhua, October 1

China-India relations go far beyond the bilateral scope and have great regional and global significance, Chinese Ambassador to India Sun Weidong has said.

China makes it official, wants to revert to 1959 LAC India has rejected many times
The Print, September 29

China has said it abides by the Line of Actual Control (LAC) as proposed by Premier Zhou Enlai in 1959 — the first time in decades that it has clearly spelled out its stand on the notional Sino-India boundary.

News Reports

Pandemic Cuts America's Lead Over China as Most Powerful Nation in Asia
Bloomberg Quint, October 20

China is closing in on the U.S. as the most powerful country influencing the Asia-Pacific, as America’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic tarnishes its reputation, according to the Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index. India comes in at fourth place on the index after Japan.

With eye on China, India sends an invite to Australia for Malabar naval exercise
Livemint, October 19

New Delhi’s invitation to Australia is also expected to pave the way for the eventual formalization of the Quad grouping.

With an eye on China, India hands over submarine to Myanmar
The Times of India, October 16

India has handed over one of its diesel-electric submarines to Myanmar to counter China’s strategic inroads in the region.

Taiwan Thanks 'Friends in India' on National Day as Posters Erected outside Chinese Embassy
The Wire, October 11

The move came after the Chinese embassy issued a ‘letter’ to the Indian media with instructions to not use certain terms that would violate the ‘One China’ policy.

“They Need US To Be Their Ally”: Mike Pompeo On India Amid China Standoff
NDTV, October 10

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has urged closer ties with India as he warned of China's growing might on its doorstep, amid a flurry of diplomacy between the world's two largest democracies.

With eye on China, India and Japan discuss strengthening of security ties and supply chains
The Print, October 7

Indian and Japan, in an effort to bypass China, also discussed encouraging ASEAN to play a bigger role in terms of business and trade in the Indo-Pacific region.

Neighbourhood First: India to invest USD 6 bn for setting up a Petroleum refinery in Myanmar
Financial Express, October 6

India has proposed to construct a petroleum refinery in Thanlyn region near Yangon, and is planning to invest USD 6 billion.

Nepal warms to India on territory spat, cools to China
Nikkei Asian Review, October 5

Nepali textbook with contentious map dropped amid talk of Chinese incursion.

China to be the only economy with positive growth in 2020, says IMF report
CGTN, October 19

China continues to be the only economy in the world to show positive growth in 2020, according to the IMF. Brazil and Russia are predicted to contract 5.8 and 4.1 percent respectively, while India's economy could shrink 10.3 percent.

India may pip Japan to become 3rd largest economy by 2050 after China, US
Financial Express, October 11

Huge declines in the number of workers were forecasted in China and India even as the latter was expected to still have the largest working-age population in the world by 2100.

Double-digit rise in exports helps India nearly halve trade gap with China
Business Standard, October 8

Exports to China saw sustained double-digit growth for the fourth straight month in August, led by eightfold rise in iron and steel shipments.

India may pip China, Vietnam to become mobile export hub: Report
Deccan Herald, October 8

India may soon pip China and Vietnam to become a mobile export hub as Apple, Samsung and domestic players such as Lava Group are planning to ramp up manufacturing in the country, according to a report by Business Standard.

Despite drop in emissions, India still world’s highest sulphur dioxide producer
The Hindu, October 9

India’s sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions has recorded a significant decline in 2019 compared to 2018, according to a report from Greenpeace India and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

Indian green energy firms tasking deal advisors to call out China connection early
Livemint, October 7

Given long deal making duration, Indian promoters cautious about finding any such encumbrances later to avoid potential setback for fund raising exercise.

India to overtake China as world’s largest LPG residential market by 2030
Financial Express, October 6

India is expected to overtake China as the world's largest cooking gas LPG residential sector market by 2030, Wood Mackenzie said.

Pressure on big emitters as China sets bold climate target amidst pandemic
CGTN, October 1

China announced an ambitious climate pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, putting pressure on big emitters, including the U.S., India and Russia, to revise their carbon emission target.

Bangladesh wins and loses in China-India rivalry
Asia Times, October 14

By Bertil Lintner, journalist, author and strategic consultant

Bangladesh is in the middle of rising Indian and Chinese competition for South Asian influence, a position that could benefit or imperil the Muslim majority developing nation of over 161 million people.

Engaging Quad partners on reforming China-centred economic globalisation is a rare opportunity for India
The Indian Express, October 13

By C. Raja Mohan, Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore

India’s current focus is on drawing foreign investment into domestic manufacturing; but Delhi has been unable to clinch bilateral trade deals or articulate the case for rejigging the global economic order.

Can the 'Quad' be transformed into an Asian NATO?
CGTN, October 6

By William Jones, Washington-based political analyst and a non-resident fellow of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies

After a whirlwind tour of Europe to rally the European countries around his anti-China crusade – with mixed success, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo now turns his attention to the Asia-Pacific.

Chinese anxiety over Tibet fuels rising tensions with India
Nikkei Asia, October 5

By Brahma Chellaney, Geostrategist

Xi Jinping appears to have underestimated New Delhi's capacity to fight back.

India Doesn’t Need the Quad to Counter China—and Neither Do Its Partners
Foreign Policy, October 5

By Salvatore Babones, Associate Professor, University of Sydney

The nascent pact with Australia, Japan, and the United States is pointless. It should be quietly disbanded.

China-India: Talk is cheap, but never free
The Interpreter, September 29

By Oriana Skylar Mastro, Center Fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI)

Temper the negotiation hopes. States often worry a willingness to talk will communicate weakness to an adversary.

Navigating India-China Rivalry: Perspectives from South Asia
South Asia Discussion Papers, September 2020

Edited by C Raja Mohan, Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore and Chan Jia Hao, Research Analyst at the Institute of South Asian Studies in the National University of Singapore.

The papers in this volume bring together perspectives on how the region has manoeuvred between the historically dominant power of the region, India, and a rising power, China, on South Asia’s doorstep. Not all countries responded in an identical fashion to the shifting dynamic between India and China over the last seven decades or more. Each of them has a unique history of ties with India and China. The authors in this volume capture the nuances and variations of their approaches to the emerging rivalry between India and China. Seven essays capture the views of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. These are followed by reflections on the approaches of China and India on the changing regional political dynamic. Together, these papers provide important insights into what promises to be a consequential structural change in South Asian geopolitics. 

Authors include: Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Suhasini Haidar, Athaulla A Rasheed, Pramod Jaiswal, Touqir Hussain, Chulanee Attanayake, Archana Atmakuri, Ren Yuanzhe, Wu Lin, and S D Muni