Since 2 April, the trade offensive launched by the US under the leadership of US President Donald Trump has been dizzying in its shifting strategies and changing bargaining chips. This trade conflict has also rapidly shifted focus, from a global scope to China.
Trump said that no country should retaliate against the global reciprocal tariffs, otherwise there would be even harsher penalties. This strategy may have been effective against some countries, but he underestimated China — a prepared and patient opponent.
In response to Trump’s tariff pressures, China has adopted a longer-term and more systemic approach, rather than reacting with short-term compromises or bargaining tactics. As one of the earliest and most sustained targets of Trump’s tariff policies, China has accumulated valuable experience over the past eight years. More importantly, it has significantly enhanced its economic strength, technological capabilities, and influence in globalisation. China’s strategy is thus not confined to immediate economic damage control; it also aims to build a foundation for its own long-term international competitiveness.
China has responded to US tariffs and the transactional and non-rule-based policies of the Trump administration based on international rules and broadly recognised values, countering promptly and clearly asserting its position. When the Trump administration imposed punitive tariffs in retaliation, China did not back down and hit back with equivalent countermeasures, reflecting the principled nature of China’s responsive strategy. Undoubtedly, this provoked Trump into shifting the focus of his tariff offensive to exerting pressure on China.
Shift in focus At the moment, the US has announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs on other countries, yet it has further increased the punitive tariffs on Chinese goods from 104% to 145%. The intentions behind this may be as follows.
First, the high tariffs have had a significant negative impact on the US stock market and economy, compelling the Trump administration to make certain concessions in order to ease domestic economic pressure.
Second, the US is attempting to prevent China from forming a united front with other countries affected by the reciprocal tariffs, aiming to undermine potential alliances between China and others — including the European Union (EU), Japan and South Korea — to avoid getting isolated itself. It tends to adopt a strategy of division and fragmentation, dealing with countries individually to gain the upper hand in negotiations. The US is thus determined to prevent the emergence of a strategic alliance against itself.
Third, the US has shifted its strategic focus toward China, which it views as the greatest strategic counterbalance. By concentrating its pressure on China, it hopes to force China into submission and, in doing so, send a warning to other countries not to follow China’s example in resisting US pressure.
Will the Trump administration’s extreme tariffs of up to 145% lead to a complete loss of control in the trade war, escalating into a full-blown US-China trade war and triggering a severe deterioration in bilateral relations, along with a deep decoupling of the two economies? Will the competition and conflict between the two countries continue to intensify?
These pressing questions have sparked widespread concern, fueling market panic and causing significant volatility across global markets. Many world leaders have voiced their worries about how such unstable policies could harm the global economy.
China’s message to the world In response to the US’s escalating tariffs, China has also begun to take countermeasures, such as reducing the number of Hollywood films it imports.
However, the US-China trade war will not spiral completely out of control, mainly because China’s countermeasures are not merely about tariffs or short-term punishment, but about their long-term strategic significance. China is using this opportunity to showcase to the international community its commitment to principles and adherence to norms in international relations, in order to enhance its global image, win broader international support, strengthen its soft power, and secure greater space for future development and global recognition of its values.
This strategy also reflects China’s pursuit of a more effective way to respond to US pressure. If China were to keep backing down, it would face ongoing suppression from the US, which would likely continue seeking excuses to curb China’s development. By emphasising its principles and bottom lines, China aims to make the US realise this point and drop the idea of striking at China in future, so as to fight for a more stable long-term environment for growth.
China’s strategic focus is to occupy the moral high ground. By upholding international rules and order, it highlights the contrast between its approach and that of the Trump administration, which is seen as undermining the global system. The US-initiated global tariff war has severely disrupted the international order, causing it to lose its moral authority. For China, this presents a rare opportunity to establish itself as a responsible global power and defender of international norms. As a result, while the US faces a trade deficit, it is also suffering a growing deficit in global trust.
Back to the negotiating table The US tariff war will undoubtedly exert some pressure on China’s economy, which is already grappling with multiple challenges. Thus, China is likely to continue adopting a restrained and reactive stance, rather than proactively escalating the trade war. Its reciprocal countermeasures are largely defensive and aimed at mitigating harm. The goal is not to provoke greater conflict, but to build a global consensus, rally more countries against US unilateralism, and create a wave of international resistance to American bullying.
China is striving to reshape its image as a protector of international balance and the global trade system. Notably, in addition to retaliatory tariffs, China has released a government white paper and introduced a new vision for building a community of shared future with neighbouring countries, emphasising its sense of international responsibility and constructive global role.
As long as China can effectively counter the US and shape a favourable image within the international community, it considers its strategic objectives to have been met. China’s ultimate goal remains to bring the US back to the negotiating table. After all, the US is still the most powerful country in the world, while China’s domestic economy faces numerous challenges and issues. China needs more time to consolidate its national strength and is in no hurry to break the deadlock, nor can it afford an early and total rupture in relations with the US.
Many of the Trump administration’s more destructive policies are unlikely to be sustainable in the long run, as they will face resistance both domestically and from the international community. Although the future trajectory of the US remains uncertain and a return to the past may be impossible, some eventual adjustment and return to a more rational path is inevitable. Thus, China chooses to exercise strategic patience, staying composed to outlast changes, trusting that time will tell.
Long-term effects China’s core national interests go far beyond international trade — they lie in achieving national modernisation and unification. Therefore, it will keep “struggling without breaking” when it comes to the US. As long as China succeeds in establishing a new image as a defender of the multilateral trading system, it will secure ample room for future development and play a leading role in the emerging global order, while the US’s relative role will diminish.
On the other hand, the negative impact of the extreme US-initiated tariff war on its own economy is becoming increasingly difficult to bear. Meanwhile, China has made long-term preparations and still holds strategic cards it can play in retaliation, such as targeting US service exports. So, the US will not pursue a complete decoupling from China, as China today is too strong to be ignored. The US also faces inherent limitations in its own strength and fears widespread global condemnation, and losing its moral authority on the international stage.
Moreover, Washington must consider the potential backlash of exerting excessive pressure on China, as such actions could provoke strong nationalist sentiments within China, fostering greater domestic unity and ultimately leading to a situation that would be disadvantageous to the US in the long term. Ultimately, given the current balance of comprehensive power between China and the US, neither side is willing to bear the risk of unilaterally escalating the conflict.
In the unfolding US-China trade war, the stance of third-party actors such as the EU is also crucial. Both China and the US are actively working to win over these external forces, which in turn makes their respective strategies more measured and cautious.
This article was first published on ThinkChina on 11 April 2025.