The escalating conflict in the Middle East is no longer a localised crisis; it has become a critical force reshaping the structure of the global economy. Unlike past energy shocks, its impact goes beyond supply disruptions or price volatility.

For China, the implications of the conflict in Iran extend far beyond a mere energy shock; it represents a veritable watershed moment.

Philippine domestic divisions and public “word wars” with China risk undermining Manila’s credibility as 2026 ASEAN Chair and eroding ASEAN centrality at a critical moment. Effective leadership will require projecting internal coherence, rallying broader ASEAN unity among claimant and non-claimant states, and converting the Code of Conduct pledge into concrete, legally grounded diplomatic progress.

Expert urges caution when turbulence is mistaken for transformation