In the brutal world of geopolitics, great powers are like crocodiles and small states need to be very careful even when they appear to smile.

Border tensions between Thailand and Cambodia flare with rhythmic predictability. Every few years, a clash, standoff, or troop movement reignites nationalist sentiment and triggers hurried diplomacy. Quick fixes follow—some bilateral, some externally encouraged—but calm rarely endures. The pattern is clear: the conflict recurs because the system governing it remains unchanged.

Aware that US containment of China is a persistent feature of Washington’s foreign strategy rather than a temporary political gesture, China has made sure to be prepared since US President Donald Trump’s first term. Academic Gu Qingyang observes that China is reshaping the rules of engagement, driven by shifts in the external environment and the domestic need to ensure economic recovery.

International cooperation can advance, even when the most powerful players are at odds