Climate change is transforming the South China Sea into a human security frontier, displacing vulnerable coastal communities and driving irregular maritime movement across borders. ASEAN’s current maritime governance overlooks climate mobility and integrating it into regional rules and institutions is essential to prevent escalating humanitarian crises from devolving into strategic instability.

Grey-zone friction over fisheries and maritime access currently poses the greatest risk of escalation in the South China Sea. Southeast Asian states should prioritise technology-enabled, issue-specific maritime governance and selectively partner with non-escalatory external actors, like the European Union (EU), to strengthen surveillance and enforcement capacity without attempting to resolve sovereignty disputes.

Henry Kissinger, the late US secretary of state, once reportedly remarked that “to be an enemy of America would be dangerous, to be a friend would be fatal”. That observation, while made in the context of America’s allies in the Vietnam War, has gained fresh resonance at the recently concluded Munich Security Conference, where current Secretary of State Marco Rubio artfully delivered a message that was, to all intents and purposes, an iron fist in a velvet glove.

As China solidifies its position as ASEAN’s largest trading partner, what does this mean for the future of regional power dynamics? With China’s regional influence expanding amid intensifying rivalry with the United States, the future of Southeast Asia’s regional order has become a focal point of debate. Researchers Dr Selina Ho from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and Dr Terence Lee from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies examined how ASEAN elites perceive China’s role—uncovering critical insights into who shapes the rules, and who holds real authority in the region.