From left to right: Prof Kishore Mahbubani, Distinguished Fellow, Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore; Ms Wu Ye-Min, Regional Director, South and Southeast Asia, Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue; Dr. Michael Vatikiotis, Senior Advisor, Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue; Assoc Prof Francesco Mancini, Vice Dean (Executive Education) and Associate Professor in Practice, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.
Southeast Asia, once a region marred by conflict, has transformed into a model of peace and stability, offering valuable lessons for the rest of the world. This was one of the key takeaways from a recent session on global peace and conflict at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy’s (LKYSPP’s) Festival of Ideas 2024. The session featured panellists ranging from former diplomats, to policy advisors and academics who discussed the persistence of global violence, while also highlighting Southeast Asia’s peaceful trajectory over the past 45 years.
However, as LKYSPP Vice Dean (Executive Education) and Associate Professor in Practice
Francesco Mancini noted in his opening remarks, the global picture is far less encouraging. “If I can put this in a rather unsophisticated way — what is going on?” he asked the audience. “Why do we see this persistence of violence in so many parts of the world and why does building a durable peace seem to be so elusive?”
Professor Mancini’s thought-provoking questions set the stage for three distinguished panellists to explore these issues: Kishore Mahbubani, former dean at LKYSPP and distinguished fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Asia Research Institute; Dr Michael Vatikiotis, Senior Advisor at the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue; and Wu Ye-Min, Regional Director for South and Southeast Asia at the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue.
The Long Peace in Southeast Asia
Professor Kishore Mahbubani began by reflecting on Southeast Asia’s transformation from a region of conflict to one of enduring peace, citing 45 years of peace in East Asia, despite having some of the largest interstate wars in the world. He emphasised that this long peace, particularly in Southeast Asia, offers important lessons on maintaining stability amid regional tensions.
Professor Mahbubani credited the peace in Southeast Asia to the success of regional organisations like ASEAN, which has played a pivotal role in facilitating dialogue and preventing conflict. According to him, this framework has fostered an environment in which disputes can be managed diplomatically, rather than through violence.
Despite this positive outlook, Professor Mahbubani also acknowledged the ongoing challenges posed by conflicts around the world. However, he remained hopeful that ASEAN and regional leaders could continue to play a constructive role in the cause of peace through initiatives like the Asian Peace Program.
The Role of ASEAN and Regional Diplomacy
Dr Michael Vatikiotis echoed Professor Mahbubani’s optimism regarding Southeast Asia’s peaceful trajectory but also proffered his view of the challenges facing the region. Southeast Asia has benefited from comparative peace and stability, he stated, while adding, “there are flash points in this region that could lead to broader conflict, and these mostly stem from the US-China dynamics.” He pointed to the territorial disputes in the South China Sea as an area of concern, noting that rising tensions between the United States and China could destabilise the region if not carefully managed.
Dr Vatikiotis highlighted the importance of ASEAN in maintaining regional peace but cautioned against overestimating its ability to resolve internal conflicts like those in Myanmar. He explained that ASEAN’s “main goal is to prevent interstate conflict rather than resolve internal conflicts and state fragmentation, which is what we see in Myanmar today.” Despite these limitations, Dr Vatikiotis praised ASEAN’s ability to foster multilateral diplomacy and informal interactions among Southeast Asian leaders, which have helped to prevent conflicts from escalating.
He also pointed to Indonesia as a key player in regional peacemaking efforts. Indonesia has a strong history of third-party peacemaking, having mediated conflicts in Cambodia, the Philippines, and more recently in Myanmar. He emphasised that Indonesia’s commitment to upholding international law and promoting dialogue has made it a respected actor in regional peace efforts.
The Global Context: A Bleak Outlook
While Southeast Asia’s experience offers hope, the global situation remains dire, as Ms Wu Ye-Min pointed out. “Violence is at an all-time high since the end of the World War,” she said. “110 million people were displaced last year due to conflict, and military expenditure worldwide has increased, and last year we saw it surpassed $2 trillion.”
Ms Wu underscored the devastating impact of conflict on global development, emphasising that war sets back entire generations by destroying infrastructure, destabilising economies, and preventing access to education. “If we want peace, we ultimately need to invest in peace,” she said, echoing the sentiment that greater investment in peacemaking is crucial. She called for more funding for peace initiatives, arguing that governments and international organisations need to prioritise peacemaking efforts as much as they do military spending.
Lessons for a Durable Peace
All three panellists agreed that the key to building a durable peace lies in a combination of diplomacy, regional cooperation, and investment in peacebuilding efforts. Professor Mahbubani urged Southeast Asia to continue its role as a model for peace, stressing the importance of supporting regional dialogue and conflict resolution mechanisms. “We in Asia must do more to support the cause of peace,” he said.
Dr Vatikiotis echoed this sentiment, calling for Southeast Asian countries to resist pressures to choose sides in the US-China rivalry. “Southeast Asians are loath to choose (sides) and prefer to form a balance that enables countries to benefit from relations with all the great powers,” he said. By maintaining this neutrality, Southeast Asia can continue to serve as a peaceful and stable region amid growing geopolitical tensions.
Ms Wu called for a global shift in priorities. “We need to act more urgently to counter the increasing violence we are seeing,” she said. Her call for greater investment in peace was a reminder that building a durable peace requires not only diplomatic efforts but also financial commitment from the global community.
As the world grapples with rising violence and instability, Southeast Asia’s 45 years of peace offer valuable lessons in maintaining stability through regional cooperation, diplomacy, and investment in peacemaking. While the challenges are immense, the region’s experience shows that with the right strategies and commitment, peace is not only possible, but sustainable.
This article is produced as part of a series in conjunction with
Festival of Ideas 2024.