The first half of 2024 saw rising geopolitical tensions, fragmenting economies and a shifting world order as major powers battle for influence. These posed challenges for governments and intergovernmental organisations, including the ones in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
Professor Danny Quah, Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKYSPP) put it this way: "The world is fraught, geopolitically, not just in the region, but the entire world. ASEAN's role in the emerging regional architecture will be critical for the livelihoods and wellbeing of many of us who live here."
He shared this view at the S.T. Lee Distinguished Lecture by ASEAN Sec-Gen, Dr Kao Kim Hourn on
ASEAN's role in the evolving regional architecture. Despite the increasingly complex environment, Dr Kao had expressed confidence that the bloc remains relevant.
An evolving institution
When the Foreign Ministers of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand signed the ASEAN Declaration in 1967, they expressed the goal to work together in areas like the economy, society, and education, while maintaining peace and stability in the region. The organisation was open to any Southeast Asian country that agreed with these goals. It now represents 10 member states with the commitment to cooperate for their people's peace, freedom and prosperity.
Since then, Dr Kao said ASEAN’s role and challenges have evolved, and will continue to.
In 2007, or 40 years since ASEAN’s formation, its members signed an ASEAN Charter which gave the organisation “legal personality” and strengthened the bloc’s role in regional forums such as the East Asia Summit. The Secretariat now has over 400 full-time staff and more than 200 others working on various projects. The region’s growing population of 671 million including a large proportion of young people, advancing technology and the climate crisis further drive the organisation’s evolution.
US-China rivalry
While ASEAN has weathered the Cold War, it has now become the battleground for competition between superpowers China and the United States. ASEAN is a
Comprehensive Strategic Partner with both nations. Yet, as China and the United States (US) jockey for position, there have been concerns over ASEAN’s ability to remain neutral, and if it’s stance might be pulled apart by security partnerships such as those between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States (
AUKUS).
A recent survey by ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute,
The State Of Southeast Asia 2024 showed that among Southeast Asians, China has narrowly edged out the United States as the preferred superpower, if countries in the region were forced to choose between the two.
While emphasising that “strategic competition is always on our minds”, Dr Kao cautioned against reading too much into such narratives or perceptions of ASEAN’s leanings. He said: “We constantly have conversations. We work on many practical projects of corporation.”
Dr Kao noted that the United States and China continue to send their diplomats to ASEAN led meetings because it is in their common interest. He said the same goes for other countries, whether members of AUKUS or the Quad (United States, Australia, India, and Japan). ASEAN has relationships with all these groups and will continue to do so, he added.
Maritime claims
China currently has territorial disputes with
five ASEAN member nations in the South China Sea (SCS). While ASEAN continually seeks to resolve these issues, countries such as the Philippines are exploring their own
bilateral or multilateral approaches.
Dr Kao disagreed with those who said that this will threaten ASEAN’s unity. “We have some common ground,” he said, and cited the
Declaration on the Conduct (DOC) of Parties in the South China Sea issued in 2002, and the subsequent
DOC Guidelines as proof that ASEAN remains united in finding a regional solution. He also said that he expects negotiations with China on the
Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC), which began in 2018, to conclude by the end of next year.
At the same time, he is of the view that territorial claims must be dealt with bilaterally. “They have to be negotiated by the parties directly involved,” he said.
Dr Kao said that critics often paint a more pessimistic picture of fractures within ASEAN but, in reality, there is a “strong spirit of negotiation”. He acknowledged that regional conflicts continue to draw criticisms that ASEAN is incapable of solving them.
Regional conflicts
One of the main criticisms is that ASEAN is unable to manage the conflict in Myanmar. Since 2021, when a military junta overturned the democratically elected government, the ASEAN member state has faced
internal armed conflict, increased poverty, widespread hunger and has been condemned by the United Nations. ASEAN responded with its
Five-Point Consensus which called for “an immediate end to violence in the country; dialogue among all parties; the appointment of a special envoy; humanitarian assistance by ASEAN; and the special envoy’s visit to Myanmar to meet with all parties”.
In May 2023, then ASEAN chairperson,
Indonesian President Joko Widodo admitted: “There has been no significant progress in the implementation of the Five-Point Consensus.”
Faced with this reality, Dr Kao said, “We would like Myanmar to implement the Five-Point Consensus, because Myanmar was part of the discussion… but there is no reciprocity.”
Hope for ASEAN centrality
In light of the complexities of a fragmented global landscape, what are the prospects for ASEAN centrality in the near future? There are bright spots.
The
ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute study, shows that 29.7 per cent of ASEAN respondents expressed confidence in the bloc’s leadership in advocating for global free trade as opposed to other players such as the US, China or the European Union, an increase from the previous year’s findings. Additionally, when considering how ASEAN should respond to the pressures of US-China rivalry, the majority of respondents (46.8 per cent) favour bolstering ASEAN's resilience and unity.
But to do this requires a greater promotion of the ASEAN mentality. While nationalism remains potent within member states, ASEAN citizens feel a shared recognition of the benefits that come from being part of the group, such as increased regional connectivity and the ease of travel within ASEAN zones.
ASEAN's nature to engage externally is pivotal, with access to other markets and the promotion of both intra-ASEAN and foreign tourism being critical economic drivers. The region's strength is its stability and large potential for economic growth, particularly in the robust tourism sector, which hinges on a united front to effectively negotiate with partners.
Despite fears of division reflecting the broader global fragmentation, ASEAN's current approach of embracing a model of "agreeing to disagree" suggests a mature framework for maintaining centrality. The emergence of mini-lateral initiatives, such as AUKUS or the Quad, is being closely monitored, with the understanding that ASEAN's ability to lead and collaborate with these partners will be crucial.
Economic well-being across the region remains a primary objective, with ASEAN rolling out plans for a digital economy to cultivate shared interests and further integrate its member states. The hope for ASEAN centrality, lies in its collective resolve to address challenges head-on, transform them into opportunities, and to continue evolving in a manner that reflects both the aspirations and the pragmatism of its member states. As Dr Kao put it, he wants ASEAN to “become a real centripetal force” bringing nations to the centre to support ASEAN centrality, unity, integration and community.