As a rising power in the Asia-Pacific and an assurgent player in international affairs, Vietnam is a promising partner and potentially the closest ally of the US in Southeast Asia, according to many US analysts. With flourishing bilateral defence ties and the recent Quad-Plus Meeting which discusses the current COVID-19 situation and how to counter its spread, the question on future prospects of the US-Vietnam strategic partnership is worth addressing.
Why establish a strategic partnership?
Since the establishment of the US-Vietnam comprehensive partnership in 2013, there has been talk about upgrading this partnership to a strategic one which puts more emphasis on the bilateral military cooperation. The US-Vietnam military rapprochement reflects their strategic convergence. The increasing assertiveness of China in the South China Sea (SCS) challenges the US primacy in the region and its allies’ security. The US thus needs a potential ally to contain China’s rise, as the main regional instrument for the US to do this - the Quad is not enough. With its geostrategic location, its large market and population and its strategic interests in the SCS, Vietnam can augment the power of the US in the region. For Vietnam, despite having established strategic partnerships with regional powers like India or Japan, this is insufficient because these countrieslack power and a common agenda to dealing with China's rise. In this respect, the US can be the reliable powerful security guarantor of Vietnam and other countries in the region attributed to its economic, military power and independent foreign policy of China's influence.
Recently, the virtual Quad-Plus vice-ministerial meeting with the participation of Vietnam may be also worth addressing as a milestone in the strengthening of US-Vietnam bilateral relations. Although this meeting aims to synergise efforts of participant countries to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic as well as to mitigate its impact on the global economy, it may bring additional significance to the future of US-Vietnam security ties, especially in the context of the 25th anniversary of bilateral diplomatic normalisation.
Besides the Quad members, two other countries in the meeting, New Zealand and South Korea have been formal allies since the Cold War. In inviting Vietnam to take part in this meeting, the US may implicitly be acknowledging Vietnam as its informal ally, noting its effectiveness in combatting the COVID-19 pandemic, its ASEAN's Chairmanship and its non-permanent membership of the UN Security Council. Importantly, as mentioned, the Quad is insufficient for the US to contain China's rise due to its lack of power and absence of a coherent strategy towards China among member states. Meanwhile, China is gradually recovering from the COVID-19 outbreak and taking advantage of the pandemic to increase its presence in the SCS. Given its close relations with all countries in the Quad Plus group and its firmness in dealing with China in the SCS, Vietnam may be a good choice for the US to meet its goal of creating an alliance of “trusted partners”.
Challenges on both sides
Notwithstanding those achievements so far in the US-Vietnam bilateral relations, there are still hindrances to both sides in establishing a strategic partnership. On the side of the US, despite its proactiveness in accelerating military cooperation with Vietnam, progress has been insubstantial. There have been no defence engagement activities between both sides to date, and there are no major arm deals between Vietnam and the US since the US lifted the lethal weapon embargo on Vietnam during President Obama's visit in 2016. Next, the US is upping pressure on China in the SCS. Yet, its military actions are just saber-rattling ones. The US, as the current epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, is wrestling with the crisis, as well as it fully understands the horrendous consequence of a large-scale conflict with China in the region. Therefore, it is far from certain that the US would resort to war with China.
On Vietnam's end, there are several impediments to its partnership advancement with the US. According to its latest Defense White Paper (DWP) in 2019, Vietnam firmly stated its "Four Nos" policy, which means it will not form an alliance with the US to counter China. Although Vietnam gives a certain level of flexibility in its DWP, unless China's aggressiveness ramps up in the SCS, Vietnam is unlikely to go along with the US and the Quad, because it neither want to be implicated in the US-China strategic rivalry nor to risk straining relations with China. Additionally, the technical interoperability of US-produced weapons systems also hinders substantial US-Vietnam trade deals. The US-produced military equipment is too technically advanced for Vietnam to master at short notice due to its lack of military technology, which slows bilateral defence relations.
Despite witnessing great steps forward recently, the US-Vietnam strategic partnership has a long journey to go. Despite this, the future is promising, with what both countries have achieved so far. However, given the hurdles that two countries are facing and the current regional and international climate, there needs more radical changes from both sides to enter a new era of substantive strategic cooperation, which may take a long time to materialise.
(Photo credit: Florian Wehde)