The world is more volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous than ever — terms so commonplace now that they’ve earned the shorthand “VUCA”. The second Trump presidency is the latest iteration of a VUCA world. As alliances shift and are sorely tested, governments everywhere are left questioning how they should respond.
This was a key question for Ambassador Michael Reiterer, Distinguished Professor at the Brussels School of Governance's Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy. A trusted voice on East-West relations and former European Union (EU) diplomat to Korea, he has also served as a panellist during World Trade Organization dispute settlements — a topical role at a time when global trade tensions have flared to the surface. Reiterer spoke at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKYSPP) on the day that President Trump announced
25 per cent tariffs on steel entering the United States from any country (with new developments occurring daily).
Such a move is likely to give
major steel exporters and longtime allies of America, including Japan, Germany and South Korea, pause in their relations with the US. “In using tariffs in a rather indiscriminate way, I think we see one pillar of the multilateral trading system endangered,” Reiterer noted.
As more pillars crumble, however, the risks to international order will continue to rise. Reiterer emphasised during the talk that while this is a time when many countries are guided by national self-interest, such thinking could have dangerous downsides. “If you don’t believe in multilateralism, you cannot manage an alliance,” he cautioned. “You need a networked approach.”
Such links, Reiterer stressed, are particularly critical when trying to address global, cross-border challenges like climate change, which can only be solved when nations work collaboratively and holistically.
Upending the economic order
Tariffs aside, economic uncertainty is also arising from other directions, including alliances looking to upend the status quo. “There’s a clear effort by China and Russia to work toward a new order,” Reiterer argued — one that is less rule-based and more interest-based.
Powered by their own multilateral institutions, such as BRICS+, there is an effort to reduce the role of the dollar as the de facto global currency, he added.
Such a move could destabilise American hegemony. In VUCA times, this risk is heightened by a US president driven by a populist mandate, and economic matters can quickly escalate political friction. National security can all too easily be invoked in these scenarios, leading to even more drastic measures taken in high-pressure situations. And as regions like Asia
have long known, when America sneezes, the world catches a cold.
The erosion of predictability
In times when power politics reigns, blocs like the EU and ASEAN may appear less relevant on the world stage, hamstrung by red tape and competing internal interests.
Some politicians, including European commissioner Kaja Kallas, believe it’s time this stance changed. As she
noted in a speech in February 2025, a key question was whether the EU should “become transactional” in its policy, seeking clear and decisive political and economic wins. “We are the predictable partner, we are the reliable partner,” she said, “but we are often taken for granted.”
Such a statement could point to a spike in more dynamic policies that go against the grain, especially when it’s in clear response to similar self-interested moves by America. Tough talk can be tough to back up, however, as Reiterer noted that a common criticism of the EU was its lack of implementation. “It’s always, ‘Well, nice words, good concept, but […] where is your aircraft carrier?’” Though lighthearted, these words reflect long-standing weaknesses in the force of European foreign policy, especially with regards to Asia, who has at times felt
snubbed by its long-time trading partner.
This, after all, is a time when many nations, both in the EU and Asia, are leaning towards the adage of “speak softly and carry a big stick”. Previously long-abstaining countries such as Sweden and Finland
joined NATO in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and average global defence spending jumped from
1.6 per cent of GDP in 2022, to 1.9 per cent in 2024.
But a strong defence must work alongside diplomatic solutions. To ensure alliances remain strong, face-to-face talks are key. Even in fast-moving times where much inter-government communication takes place
through remote calls, forging warm relationships often comes down to, simply put, being there.
Reiterer himself has pushed EU leaders to attend the Shangri-La Dialogue defence summit in person, urging them that “in Asia, you have to come and show your face. If you don’t […] they don’t take your words for anything”. The annual summit, held in Singapore, comprises ministers, defence leaders and diplomats from around the world.
The map of diplomacy redrawn
As lines of tension harden, diplomacy can still offer a path to stability. There are opportunities for new partnerships to quell friction, and policymakers must look hard for opportunities they may have traditionally overlooked.
Reaching out to Central Asia, Reiterer argues, may enable Europe to strengthen alliances with Putin’s southern flank, potentially cementing new international friendships at a time when few are being forged.
Embracing relations with Central Asia was once an EU blind spot due to the focus on Asia’s maritime ports and sea routes, and yet, “we in Europe are on the same landmass as China,” Reiterer said, “and the bridge is Central Asia.”
Building such a bridge could offer exciting economic ties, driven by the area’s deep natural resources. Spurred by such benefits,
India and Japan are following suit in cementing friendships in the region.
Apart from the hard map-lines of geopolitics, countries must look outward to the shifting landscape, as well as continuously examine their own political terrain — and act decisively when their key values are being crossed. “Be very careful with [drawing] red lines if you cannot live up to them,” Reiterer warned, citing Barack Obama’s ultimatum
forbidding Syrian use of chemical weapons on its own people in 2013. When the attack occurred anyway, the US, fearing being drawn into another Middle Eastern quagmire, backed down.
As VUCA intensifies around the world, countries everywhere will have to take a hard look at their values and priorities, and decide for themselves which they are willing to set aside — and which they must fight for.
Disclaimer: This article reflects information accurate at the time of publication. However, circumstances may have changed since then.