Food security in Southeast Asia is becoming more fragile than ever. While the region has made strides in economic growth and trade integration, its food security remains precarious. A combination of various factors — including climate change, geopolitical tensions, and emerging technologies — is reshaping how Southeast Asian nations produce, distribute, and secure food for their populations. Without coordinated efforts and bold policy interventions, livelihoods and economic stability are at risk.
The impact of climate change
Rising temperatures and erratic weather patterns are making food production increasingly unpredictable. In countries like Thailand and Vietnam, prolonged droughts have significantly impacted crop yields, while excessive rainfall has led to flooding in key agricultural zones. These disruptions are not isolated incidents, indicating a larger pattern driven by climate change.
In a recent report, the
ASEAN State of Climate Change Report (ASCCR) highlights the vulnerability of ASEAN member states to climate change, as well as the importance of adaptation and mitigation, pointing out: “The ASEAN region is already experiencing significant climate change impacts with the growing intensity and magnitude of extreme weather events and increasing economic, environmental and social damage.”
In turn, farmers across ASEAN are forced to adapt rapidly, often with limited financial and technological resources. Smallholder farmers, who make up the backbone of the region’s food production, face soil degradation, declining yields, and higher input costs due to climate-induced stress on crops and livestock. Without sufficient support, they may resort to short-term coping strategies such as overusing fertilisers or shifting to unsustainable farming practices, further exacerbating environmental degradation.
The sheer variety of climate-smart solutions is often overwhelming, especially for a farmer with little capital. By identifying solutions that are effective and directing R&D funding towards those, ASEAN can simplify these choices and help farmers manage risks. Collaborative efforts between governments, research institutions, and the private sector will be key to ensuring long-term resilience in the face of an increasingly unpredictable climate.
Trade wars and geopolitical uncertainty
Beyond environmental challenges, ASEAN’s food security is also threatened by shifting geopolitical landscapes. The US-China trade war, disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the COVID-19 pandemic, and increasing export restrictions on staple crops have exposed the vulnerabilities of food-importing nations.
“The region’s dependence on food imports, particularly wheat, soybeans, and maize, further exacerbates food security concerns,” said
Dr Barbora Valockova, Postdoctoral Fellow at the Centre on Asia and Globalisation (CAG) at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKYSPP), National University of Singapore (NUS). “Recognising these vulnerabilities, ASEAN has implemented several measures, such as the ASEAN Comprehensive Recovery Framework, adopted in 2020, which includes strategies to strengthen food security and enhance supply chain resilience.”
She added: “The bloc has also expanded the
ASEAN Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve (APTERR) to secure rice availability during crises. However, despite these initiatives, the region continues to face substantial food security risks. Recent events such as the escalating US-China trade war and President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs could pose additional challenges to the region’s food security.”
The 2018 US tariffs on China, the world’s largest soybean importer, pushed the latter to diversify its supply chains, particularly in South America. These trade dynamics could push Asian governments toward greater food self-sufficiency, especially in ASEAN, where many nations rely heavily on imports. Singapore sources 90% of its food from over 170 countries, while Indonesia imports 100% of its wheat. To reduce vulnerability, ASEAN can consider investing in public-private research to develop resilient crop varieties and sustainable farming practices, ultimately enhancing food security and reducing import dependence.
Mae Chow, Research Assistant at CAG at LKYSPP, NUS, added, “While fostering local resilience is crucial, maintaining robust trade and building diverse cooperation partnerships is also crucial. This means actively removing both trade and non-trade related barriers to improve intra-regional trade as well as beyond the region.”
AI: Opportunities and challenges
As challenges mount, governments and agribusinesses are looking toward
artificial intelligence (AI) and digital technologies to bolster food security. AI-driven precision farming, data analytics for crop monitoring, and blockchain-based traceability are already being piloted in various ASEAN countries.
Ms Chow said, “Technology is already recognised as a vital part of ASEAN’s food security initiatives. But AI has yet to be something that is explicitly integrated, and there’s no clear regional strategy for its deployment in smart agriculture. This means that AI adoption within ASEAN’s agricultural policies remains underdeveloped and somewhat fragmented.”
Despite these challenges, “AI offers substantial opportunities that can drive predictive analytics and provide real-time data to optimise farming conditions, thereby strengthening food output. Beyond production, AI can also help to enhance supply chain resilience by offering clearer guidelines for complex legislation, optimising transport routes, and improving storage management to enhance the shelf life of perishable goods to reduce food wastage,” she explained.
“Additionally, AI can help to digitalise agricultural finance to enable better analysis of the supply and demand trends, manage price fluctuations for government intervention, and adapt to regulatory changes to improve financing and investments.”
“So, while AI holds this promise of addressing structural weaknesses and optimising food supply chains in the long run, it is more costly, and it involves a steep learning curve,” Ms Chow cautioned. Overcoming these challenges requires governments to collaborate with private sectors, international organisations, and local communities to build capacity, share knowledge and ensure equitable access to AI technologies.
Ensuring food security amidst increasing global supply chain disruptions
Ensuring food security in ASEAN requires more than just technological advancements; it demands stronger regional cooperation and forward-thinking policies. To achieve this, governments must work together to create more resilient food supply chains, invest in climate-adaptation strategies, and encourage responsible AI adoption in agriculture.
Moreover, ASEAN’s food security strategy must evolve beyond short-term crisis management to long-term sustainability. That may include diversifying food reserves, supporting research in climate-resilient crops, and fostering innovation in agri-tech.
As the region navigates an increasingly volatile and uncertain future, a proactive and collaborative approach will be key to ensuring that ASEAN’s food security does not become its next major crisis.