About ACI’s COVID-19 Resources Page

 

Since January 2020, we have been hearing and reading news of COVID-19 and its impact on the global economy.  It is now clear that this pandemic has presented the global economy with an unprecedented challenge.

The economic consequences among Asian nations are likely to be significant, though they have yet to be fully manifested.  At ACI, we are concentrating our efforts to assess the economic impact of the pandemic in Asia.  We hope that our research papers will be useful guides to the researchers working on the same topic.

Author/s: XIE, Taojun and TOH, Mun Heng

Publisher: The Business Times

Author/s: CHEAH, Wen Chong, LIEW Wan Yin, Doris and ZHANG, Xuyao
Author/s: LIEW Wan Yin, Doris, HANDOKO, Clarice and ZHANG, Xuyao
Author/s: KRÜGER, Dirk, UHLIG, Harold and XIE, Taojun
In this paper, we argue that endogenous shifts in private consumption behavior across sectors of the economy can act as a potent mitigation mechanism during an epidemic or when the economy is re-opened after a temporary lockdown. We introduce a SIR epidemiological model into a neoclassical production economy in which goods are distinguished by the degree to which they can be consumed at home rather than in a social, possibly contagious context. We demonstrate that within the model the “Swedish solution” of letting the epidemic play out without government intervention and allowing agents to shift their consumption behavior towards relatively safe sectors can lead to substantial mitigation of the economic and human costs of the COVID-19 crisis. We estimate the model on Swedish health data and then show that compared to a model in which sectors are assumed to be homogeneous in their infection risk, as in Eichenbaum, Rebelo, and Trabandt (2020), endogenous sectoral reallocation avoids more than 2/3 of the decline in aggregate output and consumption, and at the same time induces a dynamics of weekly death that accords very well with the matching and of the number of deaths within one year. Our analysis implies case fatality rates below 0.2 percent and a limit of less than 800 deaths per million for Sweden. We also characterize the allocation a social planner would choose that can dictate sectoral consumption patterns and demonstrate that the laissez-faire outcome with sectoral reallocation, while mitigating the economic and health crisis, still implies suboptimally many deaths and too massive a decline in economic activity.
Author/s: ZHU, Yan, MAO, Ke and ZHANG, Xuyao