Jul 17, 2023
Former US Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade and former US Ambassador to Singapore, Frank Lavin spoke at a public lecture at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKYSPP) on 31 May 2023. The lecture was chaired by LKYSPP Vice Dean (Research and Development) and Wilmar Professor of Asian Studies, Professor Kanti Bajpai.
Lavin discussed the deterioration of US-China relations, going into detail about the numerous factors influencing the situation, as well as suggesting potential ways to improve the relationship between the two superpowers.
China’s geo-political ascendancy
Lavin posited three main factors contributing to the worsening relationship between the US and China. The first is China’s steady economic growth, which has led to greater political and military reach.
"The history of state behaviour across any culture, across any millennia, is that countries project demands as they attain power."
China naturally seeks to expand its influence and assert its interests. Additionally, as aspirations are met, new goals and ambitions tend to emerge, shaping the country's behaviour.
The insularity of government officials
The second factor that Lavin brought up is China's insular and closed political system.
“In the US and in Singapore, you will find few members of the cabinet who have not lived or studied abroad. In China, you rise to the top purely from internal metrics.”
Lavin remarked that top-ranking officials in China have no experience living overseas and therefore do not have a broad worldview; he comments that it is in fact a requirement that higher-ranking people in the Chinese government not spend time overseas.
While this “supreme value of cohesion” has also brought about economic prosperity, it has limited the diversity of opinions and the ability for the government to make course corrections.
Lavin shared some examples of this, such as the detention of Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig in December 2018 in a bid to push back against Canada's arrest of the Huawei CFO Meng Wan Zhou.
Decision-making is primarily based on domestic metrics, which may disregard second-order effects or alternative approaches.
China’s approach to achieving security
The third factor stems from the historical perspective of security in Chinese foreign policy.
“When China was not strong, it was a subordinate power and at risk of being victimised. There's not much history of China and its neighbours building a relationship based on trust and mutual benefit.”
Lavin highlighted that throughout history, China had never been able to rely on the international system for balance of power, and had to seek security through hard power instead.
Lavin applies “systems-based approaches” in game theory to international relations as such: “Systems-based approaches are denoted as ‘n sum’, where any nation can join or benefit, and participation does not weaken the participation of any other nation. You are secure and your neighbour also feels secure. In contrast, we would describe the strategy of supremacy as a zero sum. As you enhance your security through a build-up, you necessarily promote insecurity in your name.”
This approach has shaped China's skepticism toward international cooperation and its preference for unilateral actions to ensure its own security. Lavin noted that “the same history that makes China disenchanted about approaching powers might also make neighbours disenchanted about approaching China.”Ways for the US to improve the relationship
It has never been more imperative that the relationship between the US and China improve, and Lavin closed the lecture with four ideas each on how the US and China can bridge some of these geopolitical gaps.
The US should strive for a more balanced conversation with China, avoiding exclusively negative rhetoric. Posturing against China for domestic political reasons can hinder meaningful engagement. By fostering a more constructive dialogue, the US can demonstrate a genuine interest in a positive relationship.
According to Lavin, the US should also be cautious about inadvertently promoting Taiwanese independence while protecting Taiwan’s current status. With various voices in the US system, it is essential for the central government to ensure a clear understanding of its position on Taiwan to prevent misunderstandings and tensions between the US and China.
Instead of solely focusing on trade friction with China, the US should seek improved trade relations with other regions like Europe and Southeast Asia. By diversifying its trade efforts, the US can play to its strengths and collaborate with countries that are actually willing to enhance trade relations, in South East Asia or in Europe. Lavin noted that threats of imposing tariffs are useful, but actual tariffs merely add cost and will not help the relationship improve.
Lastly, Lavin asserted that “allowing Russia to prevail in Ukraine will cause some in Beijing to draw the wrong conclusions about US perseverance and military commitments.” He maintains that the prospect for instability and friction in Asia will be more likely in such a scenario.
Ways for China to engage the US
As for China, Lavin advised China to “use trade sanctions judiciously, and not employ them as a routine response to insults or perceived insults” as he felt this would work to China’s detriment. He also advised that a full-throated embrace of Putin also might hurt China more, with repercussions to be had in Europe as well as in the US.
Thirdly, Lavin notes that solving any of the territorial disputes in the South China Sea would show other countries the potential that China has to be a good collaborator. Lastly, Lavin emphasised the importance of broadening the international orientation of decision-makers.
He suggested measures such as putting the foreign ministry in the Politburo Standing Committee, sending mid-level officers overseas for tours and allowing overseas education to count toward promotion tenure in the promotion process.
These four measures are examples of how China can become a leading power with the capabilities and aptitude to deal with other countries in a regularised setting that it has not historically had. By addressing these drivers and taking these steps, both the US and China can work towards a more positive and constructive relationship.
Lavin notes that it remains crucial for both sides to actively seek improvements and engage in effective statecraft to overcome the negative drivers and promote a more stable and cooperative future.