Last year was a turning point for India-China relations. In the Galwan Valley of Ladakh in India, clashes between Chinese and Indian troops left twenty Indian and four Chinese soldiers dead and at least 76 Indian soldiers injured. These were the first fatalities along the border since 1975. Despite the majority of Chinese troops withdrawing from the Indian side in February 2021, the incident raised an important question for India: if India continues to cooperate with the US, Japan, and Australia as a member of the Quad security framework, will China increase military pressure toward it in response? And if so, should India distance itself from the Quad?
To answer that, two additional questions are relevant. If India stops its cooperation with the Quad, will China stop its incursions in the India-China border? And is the Quad beneficial for India?
Regarding the first question, when we check the number of incursions in the India-China border area and the number of Chinese activities around the Senkaku Islands in Japan, there is a similar pattern. And that pattern indicates an answer to this question. Along the India-China border, the number of China’s incursions was 213 in 2011. But after 2011, they increased to 426 in 2012, 411 in 2013, 460 in 2014, 428 in 2015, 296 in 2016, 473 in 2017, and 404 in 2018. And in 2019, the number increased drastically to 663. In the case of the Senkaku Islands, the number of Chinese vessels identified within the contiguous waters was only 12 in 2011. But after that, the number sharply increased to 428 in 2012, 819 in 2013, 729 in 2014, 707 in 2015, 752 in 2016, 696 in 2017, and 615 in 2018. And in 2019, there was an even greater jump to 1,097. Therefore, China’s activities along the India-China border show a similar pattern with China’s activities around the Senkaku Islands. In both areas, in 2012 and in 2019, China’s activities increased markedly (Figure 1).
The Quad was active in 2007 but not between 2007 and 2017. If its cooperation was what influenced China’s assertive behaviour, then the figures should have indicated lower Chinese activity during the 2007–17 period. But that did not happen. This shows that Quad policy and China’s activities are not directly linked. Even if India were to stop its cooperation with the Quad now, it is unlikely that China would stop its incursions in the India-China border area.
Figure 1
Source: Compiled by author based on figures from Indian media sources and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan
As to the related question of whether the Quad is beneficial to India, we can judge its merits from three perspectives: strategic, military, and political/economic.
First, the Quad is beneficial for India strategically because it has the potential to impose order in this region. The Quad member countries—India, Japan, Australia, and the US—are the four most influential powers in the Indo-Pacific region, with the exception of China and the ASEAN nations. In the past, Europe was the center of world politics. But the Indo-Pacific region is increasingly emerging as a far more influential region in world politics. Coalitions of influential powers in the Indo-Pacific such as the Quad are very important for creating order and stability, and India’s continued membership can play a part in that.
Second, the Quad has the potential to deter Chinese aggression in the India-China border area. For example, Quad participation can strengthen India’s defence capability around the India-China border. After the Galwan Valley incident, India and China increased their troop presence and continued to face off during a harsh winter season in the 5,000m-high mountains. The US exported not only winter combat coats to India, but it also sold military equipment, including C-17 and C-130 transport planes, AH-64 attack helicopters, M777 airlift-capable ultra-light howitzers with precision guided ammunitions, and Ch-47 transport helicopters that can operate at high altitudes like those in the India-China border. The US also exported P-8 anti-submarine patrol planes that are useful to check China’s activities in the India-China border because of their good radar. Along with this equipment, infrastructure projects also enhanced India’s defense capability. Since 2014, Japan has invested in infrastructure projects in Northeast India. Despite the projects being outside of the border areas like Arunachal Pradesh, road construction projects connect India’s mainland to the border area and allow Indian troops to enter it more easily. Japan could do more to help Indian connectivity in the future.
Moreover, China now faces increasing pressure from the Quad’s growing military capabilities, and therefore its military must face east as much as it has to face west. Currently India, the US, Japan, and Australia are all planning to possess 1,000-2,000 km long-range strike capabilities such as cruise missiles or new long-range bombs for their fighter jets. In the last quarter of 2020, India conducted a slew of missile tests, such as the extended-range BrahMos missile, the Shaurya missile, the Nirbhay missile, and the HSTDV (which is a supersonic vehicle system for missiles with scramjet engines). If India deployed these missiles, it could attack strategic roads, tunnels, bridges, or airports in mountainous Tibet. Japan and Australia also plan to possess joint-strike missiles (JSM), joint air-to-surface standoff missiles (JASSM), and long-range anti-ship missiles (LRASM). Japan plans to extend its domestic development of anti-ship missiles with a range of 1,000-2,000 km. If all the Quad countries possessed such long-range strike capabilities, China would be preoccupied with defending multiple fronts and could be discouraged from launching aggressive actions.
Third, India receives political and economic support from other Quad members. By making public statements opposing China’s acts of aggression, the other Quad members draw global attention to what is happening along the India-China border, increasing international support and legitimacy for India’s position. In March 2021, the Quad leaders held a summit for the first time, during which they agreed to set up working groups looking at areas of cooperation including vaccine production, climate change, and critical emerging technology. This indicates that the Quad is expanding its scope and that it has the potential for real strategic cooperation.
Overall, the Quad is beneficial for India, and its membership in the alliance will not worsen the problem along the India-China border. In fact, further tensions along the border will only lead to an even greater institutionalization of defence capabilities among the Quad members.
Dr. Satoru NAGAO is a Fellow (Non-Resident) at Hudson Institute, based in Tokyo, Japan. His primary research area is US-Japan-India security cooperation. Dr. Nagao has authored numerous books and articles on security issues, and he also contributes to the column, “Age of Japan-India ‘Alliance’” at Nikkei Business, the journal of one of Japan’s leading newspapers.
The views expressed in the article are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy or the National University of Singapore.
News Reports
Bilateral relations
India-China border tensions remain high despite force pullbacks: US Intel
Business Standard, April 14
US intelligence community told Congress that Beijing seeks to use coordinated, whole-of-government tools to demonstrate its growing strength.
China changes stance, wants de-escalation before disengagement in Ladakh. India disagrees
The Print, April 13
De-escalation before disengagement could give China an advantage as it can move troops back much faster than India due to its better infrastructure.
No joint statement from latest China-India military talks indicates challenges in full disengagement: experts
Global Times, April 11
While China and India are still in communication on both military and diplomatic levels, the absence of any joint statements are signs that solving the remaining issues will be challenging for both sides.
China a ‘challenging neighbour’ for India: S Jaishankar
Livemint, March 26
He also described as "sensible" the recent agreement between the military commanders of India and Pakistan to adhere to a 2003 ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir.
News Reports
China and India in the Region
India protests U.S. Navy's transit through its exclusive economic zone
Reuters, April 10
The USS John Paul Jones “asserted navigational rights and freedoms,” inside India’s EEZ in line with international law by sailing about 130 nautical miles (241 km) west of India’s Lakshadweep islands, the U.S. Seventh Fleet said in a statement.
US lays strategy to counter China, strengthen ties with India, allies
The Times of India, April 9
The “Strategic Competition Act of 2021” seeks to boost America’s ability to out-compete China, endorses the Quad, and calls for deepening bilateral and regional partnerships, including with India.
Bangladesh looks to BRI to boost development
China Daily, April 6
A slew of China-backed infrastructure projects that are lined up or nearing completion are propping up Bangladesh's ambitious plans to transform from a least-developed country to a developing nation by 2026 and benefit others in the region.
India 'fully supports' WHO call for China to share comprehensive data on COVID origin
Livemint, April 2
India on Thursday (April 1) said that it fully supports the World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom's expectation that future collaborative studies will include more timely and comprehensive data sharing but raised concerns over China's delaying tactics and lack of access to “complete, original data and samples”.
In signal to China, U.S. raised India ties during Alaska talks
The Hindu, March 26
The reference to India was not favourably received by China and is being seen as reflecting how U.S.-India relations, only two months into the new administration, are developing robustly.
News Reports
Trade and Economy
At 13%, Economist Intelligence Unit Pegs India's Growth In 2021 Higher Than IMF
NDTV, April 13
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) pegged India's economic growth for the year 2021 at 13 per cent, higher than the growth forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
China’s Growth Set to Drive World Economy in Post-Pandemic Years
Bloomberg, April 6
China will contribute more than one-fifth of the total increase in the world’s gross domestic product in the five years through 2026.
India freezes bank accounts of China's ByteDance in tax case, company mounts challenge-sources
Reuters, March 30
Indian authorities have blocked bank accounts of ByteDance in the country for alleged tax evasion.
News Reports
Energy and Environment
China's plans for Himalayan super dam stoke fears in India
Channel News Asia, April 11
China is planning a mega dam in Tibet able to produce triple the electricity generated by the Three Gorges - the world's largest power station - stoking fears among environmentalists and in neighbouring India.
US climate plan puts pressure on China, India
The Straits Times, April 10
An ambitious pledge to cut greenhouse-gas emissions under consideration by the US gives President Joe Biden more leverage when he hosts leaders for a climate change summit later this month - presenting a particular challenge to China's Xi Jinping.
India, Indonesia benefit as China's ban on Australian coal reshapes trade flows
Reuters, April 8
India and Indonesia have emerged as key beneficiaries of a Chinese ban on Australia’s coal exports which is expected to further shift global trade in the fuel used for power generation and steelmaking this year.
China reveals co-operation with EU on green investment standards
Financial Times, April 7
China’s central bank has revealed that it is co-operating with the European Union to converge green investment taxonomies across the two markets.
Analyses
India and the great power triangle of Russia, China and US
The Indian Express, April 13
By C. Raja Mohan, Director, Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore
Delhi has successfully managed the changing dynamics between the great powers, and is now in an even better position to do so thanks to the size of the Indian economy.
How India-China investment tension affects India's economy
China Daily, April 6
By Ahyoung Choi, Brive Consulting Market Analyst
It would be wise for India to remain open to foreign investment, not just to the United States, Japan and the members of the European Union as it is now, but also toward China.
The Quad has a plan and it’s not all about China
Channel NewsAsia, April 6
By Shruti Pandalai, Fellow, The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
Countries of the Quad are moving forward in concrete cooperation that benefits the Indo-Pacific region as a whole. That is a positive direction it should continue with capacity building at its core.
Coping with changes
China Daily, April 6
By Lin Minwang, Professor, Institute of International Studies, Fudan University.
The changing situation in the areas surrounding China spells both crises and opportunities for China.
India should not seek closer ties with US at expense of relationship with China
Global Times, April 1
By Long Xingchun, Senior Research Fellow, Academy of Regional and Global Governance, Beijing Foreign Studies University; and President of the Chengdu Institute of World Affairs
New Delhi has made major mistakes in its strategic judgment of Beijing, perceiving that the latter has the intention of threatening it. If India continues with this misunderstanding, it will spend a lot of economic resources on confrontation with China, which will hinder its own rise.
Putting Sino-Indian ties back on track
China Daily, March 26
By Swaran Singh, Professor and Chairman, Centre for International Politics, Organisation and Disarmament, Jawaharlal Nehru University
Recent Sino-Indian military disengagements on the border have raised hopes of India returning to its quintessential equilibrium in foreign policy. Most aptly, this "return" to equilibrium is expected to be reflected in Chinese leader's much anticipated visit to India later this year to attend the BRICS summit.
Books and Journals
The Rise of India and China: Social, Economic and Environmental Impacts
Routledge, October 2020
By Kala S Sridhar, Professor at the Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bengaluru, India; and Li Jingfeng, Assistant Researcher at the Sichuan Academy of Social Sciences (SASS), and Director of the Regional and Strategic Research Office of SASS
This book offers a comparative analysis of the rise of India and China and their decisive economic and social roles in a global context. It presents a cumulative picture of the socio-economic challenges as well as the opportunities for growth and inclusive development before India and China.
The volume analyses the performance of the two countries based on economic and human development indicators. It highlights the key achievements of the two countries in governance and financial growth, and the potential for further economic development. Drawing on government data and empirical research, the book examines India and China’s relative growth in trade, investments, renewable energy technologies, urbanisation, and employment and their policies on agriculture, land use, public health, and rural-urban inequality. Further, it discusses the shared challenges of inequality, poverty, gender disparity, and environment degradation which both countries face and contrasts their policy priorities and governance mechanisms.
Comprehensive and insightful, this book will be of great interest for researchers and scholars of development studies, economics, international relations, comparative politics, sociology, public policy, and Asian studies. It will also be useful for think tanks, policy makers, and general readers interested in the India–China relationship.
Compiled and sent to you by Centre on Asia and Globalisation and the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore.
Have any feedback or comment? Email us at decb64_Y2FnQG51cy5lZHUuc2c=_decb64
Subscribe