U.S.-China Relations & the Future of the Korean Peninsula: Challenges and Prospects

The Trump administration in the U.S. is now recalibrating its confrontational approach to China in favor of a moderate and pragmatic diplomacy. The recent U.S.-China summit produced a “100-day plan” to resolve the growing trade imbalance between the two countries instead of a head-on collision over unfair trade and currency issues. Ironically, the escalating security tension on the Korean Peninsula precipitated by North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile proliferation has generated an unlikely strategic partnership between Washington and Beijing to jointly pressurize Pyongyang to stop further provocations and renounce its nuclear development. North Korea’s Kim Jung-un regime, however, is adamantly fixated to achieving the status of a “nuclear state” with long-range ballistic missile capabilities which can directly threaten the security of the U.S. mainland, not to mention adjacent Korea and nearby Japan. Given the new U.S. policy of “maximum pressure and engagement” toward North Korea, the ball is now in the Chinese court. President Xi Jinping has to make a critical decision on whether to exercise its economic leverage to the full extent such as halting energy supply to North Korea or maintaining its dualistic position toward the North. Meanwhile, South Korea, which is undergoing a political transition in the aftermath of the impeachment of the Presidency, is trying to coordinate closely with the U.S. and engage in a strategic dialogue with China to cope with the pending security crisis on the Korean Peninsula.