Despite escalating pressure, repeated negotiations, and even military confrontation, the United States and Iran remain locked in a persistent deadlock. The ongoing negotiations following the US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities on February 28, 2026, illustrate the core problem: while Iran has signalled willingness to de-escalate—such as proposing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—it has resisted addressing the nuclear issue upfront, seeking instead to defer it. The United States, by contrast, insists that nuclear constraints must be the starting point of any agreement. This divergence is not merely technical—it is structural. It reflects a deeper reality: the nuclear issue is not just another policy variable, but the most politically and symbolically charged component of the conflict. As a result, even intense pressure and partial compromises have failed to produce a breakthrough.

Expert urges caution when turbulence is mistaken for transformation

For nearly four decades, leaders in government and business have relied on the concept of VUCA — Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity — to navigate a turbulent world. VUCA 1.0 captured the disruptive forces of globalisation, financial crises, geopolitical realignments, and technological change. Its prescription for leadership was fundamentally pragmatic and grounded in the physical world. Resilience required disciplined resource allocation, diversified supply chains, institutional credibility, and prudent risk management.

Resilience has become a familiar term in recent years, especially after COVID-19, supply chain disruptions, rising geopolitical tensions and rapid technological change. But today, resilience is no longer just about recovery. It is about how countries and regions adapt and rethink how they operate in a more uncertain and fragmented world. For ASEAN, this challenge is particularly complex. Resilience looks different across emerging technologies, global value chains and health and other non-traditional security issues. And policy choices in one area can create vulnerabilities in another. In this episode's of Policy Unpacked, join our expert panel, LKYSPP's Dr. Denis Hew and Dr Miguel Gomez, Senior Research Fellows at the Centre on Asia and Globalisation, SMU's Associate Professor Chang Pao Li and RSIS' Professor Mely Anthony, as they explore what resilience really means for ASEAN and what it will take for the region to remain competitive, resilient and secure.