Intro: Welcome to this new series, Policy Unpacked. Where we unpack ideas, stories and people shaping the future. I'm Zubaidah Nazeer and today we explore a small nation's big journey. Singapore's success story is often told in numbers. GDP growth, global rankings, transformation from third world to first. But what lies beneath the statistics? What ideas, principles and policies helped a resource-class city-state not just survive but thrive on the world stage? Joining us today is Terence Ho, a Junior Associate Professor in Practice at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and author of the book, "How Singapore Beat the Odds".
Drawing from his experience as a policymaker and academic, he offers a sharp, grounded perspective on the key forces behind Singapore's exceptional journey and what we can learn from it.
Zubaidah: Thank you for coming here and spending time with us for this one, Terence.
Terence: Thank you so much for having me.
Zubaidah: And I know that you had a successful book launch in August, early August on this one. So congratulations again on that.
Terence: Thank you.
Zubaidah: Let's go to the first question. I mean, your book is titled How Singapore Beat the Odds. What were the odds exactly?
Terence: So I think around the time of Singapore's independence, it was really an open question as to whether Singapore would be viable without a larger hinterland in Malaysia. Our population size was very small, under two million people, and there was a sense of considerable vulnerability.
At the time also, the unemployment rate was fairly high, close to 10%. Even though our population was small, it was growing rapidly, and there was a question of how we would find jobs for all the young people. And also a heavy dependence on the British military bases, which accounted for about a fifth of the economy and over 30,000 jobs. So I guess the question was really whether Singapore would survive, and it did seem that the odds were quite heavily stacked against Singapore.
Zubaidah: Let's continue this further. I mean, you interviewed 12 public sector luminaries for the book, each of whom played a key role in Singapore's development. Were there any key themes from these interviews that best explain how Singapore beats the odds?
Terence: Yeah, so I was quite surprised actually that there were indeed quite a number of common themes that emerged from the various interviews of the 12 leaders. And one is really the huge role of Singapore's first generation political leadership. So in particular, Mr Lee Kuan Yew, of course, and Dr Goh Keng Swee
I mean, Mr Lee had a hand in so many areas of Singapore's governance, from the nature of the justice system to, of course, public housing, home ownership, and even down to the greenery in Singapore. He took a great interest in what kinds of trees were planted.
And as for Dr Goh, he set up the Armed Forces, and instituted national service. But he also had a huge economic role, of course, in terms of setting our monetary policy centre around the exchange rate, setting up GIC, and even reforming the education system through streaming.
So that was one theme that emerged. Others included, I think, the long-term orientation and planning and the importance of strong coordination across different agencies. And then there was the sense of also empowering good people on the ground to get things done. And this was true in the education system. Ms Seah Jiak Choo, the former Director General of Education, talks about how the system empowered principals to take ownership and to take initiative within the schools and the broader public sector. Mr Eddie Teo shared about that as well.
Even within the fiscal system, Mr Lim Siong Guan shared about how the block budget system empowered the military commanders to manage their own resources and budget. And this later applied to the rest of the public service. And then there was also this idea of not being sort of ideologically boxed in, but to keep innovating. And this was a theme that again ran through many different chapters, all the way from the economy particularly, but really every aspect of governance in Singapore. So these are some of the themes that strike me.
Zubaidah: And these laid very solid foundations for everything that we're doing even now, talking about innovation in everything. So, was Singapore’s development journey sui generis, or do you think there is anything other developing nations can take away from Singapore’s experience?
Terence: Yeah, so in the Lee Kuan Yew School of course, we always emphasise to our students who come from different parts of the world that context matters a lot. I mean there are many things that we can, countries can learn from one another, but of course the context both in terms of geography and time are quite different.
So that was another theme I would say that came up through the interviews, the idea that as a system as a whole must be coherent and policies, programs, institutions, they must work together. You can't take one bit piecemeal manner. And again, education provides a good example of that. You need everything from the facilities to the teachers to the curriculum to even the staff managing facilities, all that must come together. And the idea that policies are really situated in a kind of political and social context.
That said, I think we, I did realise not just through the interviews but generally that there are certain themes that are maybe evergreen and do apply across countries. That is for progress to be made. There needs to be good governance and this means good institutions, good people and importantly a trust in the system.
And then the other aspect is, which is quite universal, is the importance of investment in people, in human capital. And that's really the ticket to inclusive growth that doesn't just benefit a small elite but has the economic rewards spread throughout the population.
Zubaidah: And let's explore further. You mentioned the importance of not being ideologically locked in. Singapore is often lauded for being pragmatic. But pragmatism can be a vague term. How do you define it in the Singapore context?
Terence: Yeah, so as President Tharman often has written in the past.
Zubaidah: Who wrote the preface in your book?
Terence: Yes. He has mentioned that Singapore doesn't fit very neatly into the traditional political spectrum of left and right. But rather we draw from ideas and inspiration from both the left and the right, including the self-care, collectivism and compassion of the left and the ethos of enterprise and self-reliance on the right.
And similarly if you look at how we manage the economy too, it's not one way or the other. And this is something that another of my interviewees, Ravi Menon, has mentioned in the past as well that we are not just using market forces all the time. Neither are we totally government directed. Rather this is synthesis of approaches.
The government intervenes when needed but we also have market forces. So I think this illustrates how we are not quite ideologically boxed in. And also the way in which we draw good ideas and inspiration from different parts of the world and we adapt the policies and programmes to fit our own needs.
Examples being how we adopted our system of retirement and re-employment, took inspiration from Japan. And from the UK we learn how to manage large infrastructure projects. We have this gateway process for the managing of these projects. And also in the way in which we adapt policies over time to suit our purpose.
So earlier I mentioned Dr. Goh Keng Swee's education reforms. And one important thing he introduced in 1981 was streaming that helped to stem the attrition rates of students. But over time this had to be adapted to suit the current time because of course streaming did have these benefits but also resulted in some degree of stigma attached to those from the normal stream.
So today we have adapted this into subject based banding in schools where students can learn at the appropriate pace but depending on the subject. And another would be how we have strengthened the social support through the years.
We still keep to the ethos of self-reliance, people taking responsibility for themselves. But we realise that with the high cost of living, with many other factors causing a lot of volatility and uncertainty, we've needed to strengthen the social support systems in Singapore with more risk pooling, more social transfers and so on.So I think this goes to show that we are really not quite boxed in to a certain ideology but always adapting.
Zubaidah: And I think this carries on from what we've seen in the past, it's still carrying on today in that PM Lawrence Wong just said about the "we first" policies in it, this "we first" mindset
And that thing that you mentioned about streaming, we also just talked about in a recent panel discussion just happened with Dr. Janil Puthucheary who also talked about how meritocracy is really the good way to go.
Terence: Yeah, it's a concept that's evolved as well, right?
Zubaidah: Yes, that's right. So if not that, then what? At least there's something.
So just moving on to another thing: What role did the civil service play vis-a-vis the political leadership in Singapore’s development?
Terence: So I would say both the political leadership and the public service played key roles and Singapore was quite fortunate in the sense to have outstanding political leaders as well as public service.
So of course, being in the Westminster form of government, there are clear lines of responsibility, delineation of responsibilities between the political leadership and the public servants.
The political leaders, they set the vision and direction based on the mandate from the ballot box. And it's the civil servants' role to implement and realise the vision.
But that said, the pioneer civil servants, and even up to this day, the civil servants are not near sort of people who just follow directions, right? They have a lot of creative input and initiative that they've taken.
I mean, we have the likes of Philip Yeo and in my book, Dr Teo Ming Kian as well, who succeeded Philip Yeo And they brought a lot of their own ideas, their initiative, and to many of the programmes. So I think that was how they complemented the political leadership. They were intellectual equals aspiring partners. And I think another interesting point that Mr. Eddie Teo and other interviews brought up is that the role of the civil servants has also changed a bit over time.
So while the primary responsibility for communicating policies to the public and defending them are still the political leaders, increasingly we find that ministries, agencies are putting on some of the senior civil servants out there to also face the media, answer questions that also help complement the political leaders in communicating policies.
Zubaidah: I like how you're giving us taster portions of this thing. So if anybody really wants to delve into, they really need to pick up this for all these other interesting tidbits and sound bites, right?
So, what were some of the internal contradictions or tensions Singapore had to manage as it grew?
Terence: Yeah, so I think I alluded to one already, which is how we managed to balance this ethos of self-reliance, which remains very important, with the more collective support. So one could view this as one dimension, also balancing growth with equity.
And this is all part of inclusive growth. And of course, there are many other tensions along the way. The whole idea of Singapore being a global city, at the same time wanting to be very centered and rooted in our national identity, how do we balance that?
So we talk about attracting international global talent, and that is still critical. At the same time, we want to build up and develop the local core and the workforce.
And then of course, as we develop, there are tensions between development and also heritage and nature. And we see this through debates on conservation, whether it's to do with our Chek Jawa, our natural resources, or places with historical significance like Bukit Brown.
Zubaidah: Passionate debates, you know, Terence. I mean, is this something to be encouraged, right?
Terence: Yeah, I think it shows that people do care.
At the same time, we want to have different voices because I think there are sometimes also people who may be part of the silent majority and may not have their voices heard. So we want sort of different voices to weigh in on issues, and that really helps us to make more inclusive policymaking, I think.
Zubaidah: In your view, what’s the biggest misconception outsiders have about Singapore’s success?
Terence: So I think one would be that it is a completely top-down, technocratic utopia, but that doesn't give you sort of recognition of the role of the people and how even in Singapore, of course, all the policies need a lot of buy-in. And this may be also illustrated in our unique brand of tripartism.
So I also interviewed Madam Halimah (Yacob) in this book. And I think many countries have the concept of tripartism unions, employers, workers, but a few have built a trust that really brings it about.
So that is, I think, a key aspect of Singapore. It's not just a place where technocrats rule the roots, but really policies involve the people. And increasingly, we're finding that. I mean, the 4G leadership and the PMO, they've talked about co-creating policies with the people.
And the other, of course, misconception is really what I mentioned earlier, that some people may view Singapore as being this bastion or paragon of market forces or other observers may say, oh, this is an example of purely state-directed capitalism, but actually it's a combination of both. We do let market forces work, but the government intervenes when needed as well.
Zubaidah: Looking ahead, what are the new “odds” Singapore faces today? Can Singapore still apply the same success formula or does it need updating?
Terence: Yeah, so this is something I've written about recently as well, in updates. So we do know the many long-standing challenges that we have in Singapore from the ageing population. Of course, that one has both challenges and opportunities in it. And of course, climate change, sustainability. And recently, two developments have come to the fore in a very significant way.
One is how the rules-based global trading system on which Singapore has benefited tremendously from and how that is fracturing somewhere, where economic nationalism, protectionist forces, and all this is mixed up with geopolitics, of course, adding considerable uncertainty. And the other major developments in the area of technology.
So technological breakthroughs and innovations are not new, but with the recent advent of generative AI, then there are concerns about the impact on jobs, particularly because for the first time, I think, the more cognitive tasks, and even the creative tasks being sort of taken over, or rather the AI is able to do what many human beings thought was purely in the realm of human ability to do. So these are things that are forcing not so much a complete overhaul, I would say, but we need to add to our sort of blueprint for success.
So going back to what I think is fundamental, I think it's still about inclusive growth. After all, we need to make sure that we grow, not just benefiting a few, but society as a whole progresses together. And some of the key economic tenets would remain, such as being open to trade, investment and talent, investing in people, investing in capabilities, and so on.
But we have to layer on this some elements of building up greater economic resilience as well, having some domestic capability, building up our local core, and then being, of course, very adaptable and nimble to the very shocks that would be coming in.
So that's the work of our new task force that's headed by DPM, Gan Kim Yong, how we can be more alert to some of the trading moves globally, and how we can help the companies to respond to that. So I think that resilience, adaptability is key. And of course, how we deal with AI, and that has to inform the education system, has to inform how we organise the workplaces as well.
So how can we get people to complement AI, and how we can help the whole development of AI be more human-centric in terms of job design, in terms of education.
Zubaidah: And AI, if only that it could help us be more productive and doesn't quite replace everything, because I think that was also one of the key messages that PM Lawrence Wong delivered at the rally, to embrace it, but to also make sure that there is a level of productivity that we can use…
Terence: So I'm sure that AI will have a tremendous productivity boost. I mean, some of us are seeing it in a small way.
In the civil service, for example, they've been using a chatbot for the last few years to aid public servants in writing and research, even some programming tasks.
And I think that the potential is there for a lot greater use of AI when businesses really start reorganising or revamping the work processes around AI. That's when we're likely to see bigger productivity gains.
But of course, the flip side of that is that the impact on jobs as well may be affected. I think there will always be jobs for people in Singapore, especially of our ageing population, and maybe the workforce no longer growing. But it's a matter of whether these will be a sufficient number of good jobs, meaningful jobs that are created.
Zubaidah: I guess that makes sense. Are you optimistic about Singapore’s future and why?
Terence: I would say cautiously optimistic. So compared to, I mean, we talked earlier about 1965 and how daunting the challenges seem. So today we have significantly more financial resources, at least, and human resources, not just financial. We have a much bigger population, very well educated, with good skills. And importantly, as I mentioned, we have strong institutions and trust in these institutions.
We have annual surveys such as the Edelman Trust Barometer. They do show that Singapore is doing relatively well still. And even the recent trials and tribulations that Singapore has been through offer some hope that we are adaptable. That's how we got through the COVID-19 pandemic.
Of course, there were mistakes made on the part of the government and so on. But overall, I think the society pulled together and we didn't come out so badly. And I think the final element is always, through the future, it's always about young people.
And I'm glad this was the focus in the recent National Day Rally as well.
And although I would say this is more anecdotal, I mean, I haven't done surveys from the young people I talked to interact with, it does seem that at least young Singaporeans appear to me by and large quite purposeful. They want to seek meaning and purpose in whatever they're doing. They want to make a difference, whether it's their own profession or even outside in social causes and so on, concern for the environment, concern for society. And this really gives hope. I mean, they're not lying flat, metaphorically speaking, but they are out there wanting to make a difference.
Zubaidah: Okay, that gives us all a sense of relief and optimism. I cannot resist one last thing: Could you tell me, you've had a close-up, in-person interview with these 12 Luminaries.
What is the one key takeaway from it that really struck you about all that?
Terence: It's about how they always go back to having the right values. So I mean, we've talked a lot about policy systems, even institutions, but they are really underpinned by values. This was a very strong theme that came out. And of course, values, they are not completely mutable. I mean, we talked about meritocracy earlier, but I think the core of it, wanting to serve others, wanting to make a difference, upholding integrity. These are kind of, I've agreed.
And I do hope that some of the readers of this book will get a sense of that, both through the experience of these leaders and also when they refer to the pioneer generation of leaders as well, these really shine through.
Zubaidah: And is that how you feel about this book? You feel like this is the values that shone through and you're very satisfied with this product.
Terence: Yeah, so I was quite happy with the outcome of the book, because of course, going in, I don't know how the interviews would turn out and so on. And I was glad that it wasn't delivered in a very dry way, but really through the personal stories and it brings it to life, the values as well as all the other things that we discuss.
Zubaidah: I just want to say thank you so much. This was really some rich insight that you shared with us. Thank you very much, Terence.
Terence: Thank you, as well. Thank you very much.
Zubaidah: That was Terence Ho helping us unpack the ideas behind Singapore's improbable success.
From pragmatism and meritocracy to innovation and resilience, Singapore's story offers valuable lessons, not just for governments, but for anyone navigating uncertain times.
If you enjoyed this conversation, check out Terence's book, How Singapore Beat The Odds, published by World Scientific.
It's a deep dive into the country's public policy playbook and the enduring principles that have stood the test of time.
Until next time, stay curious and keep asking the hard questions. Thank you.