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This podcast was recorded on 18 March 2021.
"It's time for ASEAN to act and lead the de-escalation and mediation process in Myanmar." That's the main message of a paper published by The Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, co-authored by our guest, Yongwook Ryu, Assistant Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, together with Bernard Minn and Myat Myat Mon, who are both Master in Public Policy candidates at LKYSPP.
Simon Kearney: Professor, maybe if we could start just, perhaps you could tell us a little bit about the paper that you've just written.
Yongwook Ryu: Yes, so I, and a couple of my students from Myanmar, we decided to co-author a paper on the current situation in Myanmar. The main message that we wanted to get out through that paper is, "Yes, there's the principle of non-intervention that ASEAN has always cherished, but there's also an entirely new set of principles, norms, and values that ASEAN has been trying to promote, at least for the past 20 years.
And therefore, the ASEAN approach towards the current political situation in Myanmar has to be this delicate balancing act between emphasis on norm of non-intervention, but also emphasis on these other norms, principles, and values. And our view is that if the military in Myanmar continues to violate these other norms, values, and principles, such as principles of democracy, good governance, rule of law, constitutional government, promotion and protection of human rights, then ASEAN should be prepared to take some hard line actions.
And one specific recommendation that we made is if the situation turns sour and gets worse due to the military's violent crackdown of the pro-democracy protesters, then ASEAN should be prepared to maybe temporarily suspend Myanmar's membership of ASEAN. So we got that message out to the public.
Simon Kearney: Absolutely. So this is really ASEAN's biggest challenge since the Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia in the eighties. Is this a make or break moment for ASEAN?
Yongwook Ryu: Okay. So, I mean, that's actually a big question. So I didn't know. My crystal ball is not as clear as someone else's as you said, right? I do think that this is the most serious existential threat to ASEAN since Vietnam's invasion of Cambodia in the late 1970s. Not only because it puts in danger ASEAN's longstanding objective of keeping the region in peace, free of external military intervention, but also explicitly and you know, egregiously violates ASEAN's norms, principles, and values, and therefore it will weaken ASEAN's centrality, relevance and unity, but also it defeats ASEAN's social purpose.
Why does ASEAN exist, if it cannot handle a major political situation in its own neighbourhood? So, yes. So I think it's a major issue for ASEAN to deal with.
Simon Kearney: Before we go into the implications for ASEAN and the possible implications of suspending or expelling Myanmar's membership, I'd just like to ask Bernard and Myat Myat, what are you hearing from your friends and you know, colleagues and family, on the ground in Myanmar?
Myat Myat Mon: In Yangon, things are very bad. So Yangon is, I will say, is in complete chaos. So I have seen photos of, you know factories being burnt down that spread to houses and then, police shooting in the neighbourhood. And then police started shooting the protesters, the protesters [were] found to be dead and then dragged away. And then some of the bodies cannot even be obtained by the family itself. So things are really, really bad back home.
Simon Kearney: It's a dreadful toll. The protest movement seems to be very much driven by the youth.
Myat Myat Mon: Yes. Most people who were shot are young people. So the youngest I could say so far, is only 15, she's only 15. She hasn't even finished her high school yet.
Simon Kearney: Yeah, it's dreadful, dreadful. Ben, what are you hearing from your friends?
Bernard Minn: I think what we need to also recognise, on the ground, that the Myanmar people are very much at a point of desperation. If you understand the kind of brutality that they are undergoing from day to day, and the fact that they're living in fear, of people being killed on site, with the intention being shot to kill overnight, that there are terrorists kind of tactics of terrorism, where people are being kidnapped overnight from the safety of their own homes.
And the people are very much in a point of desperation, almost reaching out to try find any form to make progress in terms of, I guess, alleviating the situation at this moment. I think what you also have to understand in terms of where is this desperation coming from? And we started off before the pre-coup in terms of suffering from economic crisis as a result of COVID. We had an outbreak of COVID back in September, August last year. And it had been getting worse. And so a lot of people, especially those of lower socioeconomic backgrounds were suffering to begin with.
And now they're at such a point of desperation where they feel like we would rather die fighting for a future of democracy than live under a military junta, this is the voice of desperation that people are willing to die, because they're at a point where they are so broken down, especially by the past impact of COVID as well. And this couldn't be a worse time for such a thing to happen, for the military coup to take place.
Simon Kearney: It's really a loss of hope, isn't it? I mean, Myanmar, after the democratic transition was a bright bubbling fast-growing economy, a very hopeful, very optimistic place. And now that seems to have been erased. And I guess the feeling on the ground must be a sense of hopelessness, because we all know that, the military aren't the type to sort of back down.
Bernard Minn: That's correct. Yeah, absolutely. And I think, in some ways there is some hope that's being provided, and you see that in the language of social media where people feel like we're in this together as well, to try and make ourselves and pave away for a better future.
So, I think in that way, there is a sense of unity that might even in such dark times can provide some form of hope as well that we are in this together. And we want a better future for everybody.
Simon Kearney: In your paper, you used the term "massive violence" and if the situation got to massive violence, and we've seen a sharp escalation in the death toll since your paper was published, have we reached that situation of massive violence and, or, how do you characterise that?
Yongwook Ryu: Yeah. I mean, it's hard to put a specific number, it's always going to be sort of qualitative assessment. Not just looking at the number of deaths, but also the magnitude of the situation. I think there's a fairly good chance, and it looks as if it's going to degenerate into a major political disorder, because both parties, the military and the protestors are taking a very hard line.
Whereas the military initially made some conciliatory statements towards the international community, since then it has resorted to like brute force and coercion, killing innocent protestors. The protesters on the other hand, have also taken a very hard line position and they are not willing to give in to the military and they want nothing less than [the] return of full power to the NLD and maybe even the sort of punishment of the top military generals or expelling them from Myanmar.
So since these two parties are taking a very hard line position it's hard to find room to manoeuvre for negotiated outcome. And if that's the case, I think you know, it could evolve into a major political disorder.
Now, have we actually reached the stage of massive violence? I mean, I think we are getting close to it. And you know, something that has been really surprising to me is we haven't seen more much urgency coming from ASEAN.
So there was an initial ASEAN meeting earlier this month. It issued a statement, but since then, you know ASEAN has also gone into sort of a quiet mode, and given the serious nature of this political crisis in Myanmar for ASEAN's existence, you know, it's really surprising to me that, you know, we haven't seen much action coming from ASEAN.
Simon Kearney: Of the members of ASEAN, who's going to be able to drive this, and where will the cracks appear? Because I imagine that you've got to have some members of ASEAN who probably favour a more interventionist approach. But there are going to be other members of ASEAN who very clearly don't want that. Where are the cracks going to appear?
Yongwook Ryu: First of all, I wouldn't use the language of intervention. I would actually call it being caring towards other members of Southeast Asia. It's being not indifferent to a major situation in your neighbourhood. And whenever we speak of intervention, right, it automatically involves this, sort of adverse and negative memories of colonialism of Southeast Asian countries. I don't think anybody's advocating military intervention in Myanmar. It's all about political engagement with both the military and the protesters so that they could find some sort of negotiated outcome.
So that's first point. The second point, right, it would have to be Indonesia. So Indonesia has always been de facto leader within ASEAN, and Indonesia has also taken initiative[s] along with Brunei, which is the chair country for ASEAN this year, to start a consultation within ASEAN. And then it was the Indonesian Foreign Minister who flew to Myanmar to meet with the CRPH, the perceived representative organization of NLD and the protestors, as well as the military which led to the informal ASEAN ministry meeting on the 2nd and 3rd of March, which produced a statement.
But since then, it's, as I said, ASEAN has gone back into more quiet mode. And I think, you know, it's time really for ASEAN to get its house in order and take specific actions and policies on this particular issue. I mean, it's not time for ASEAN to sit idly and watch what's happening. There's got to be a lot more urgency coming from ASEAN.
Simon Kearney: I guess it's also, it's this Southeast Asian identity and sticking up for the Southeast Asian people, I guess, is the question whether ASEAN can be the body that actually affects that?
Yongwook Ryu: We don't know whether it can be the body, but it is the only body that can do it. And, you know, it has also paid a lot of lip service in the past to its own centrality in shaping regional affairs. So if it's not doing anything about this Myanmar situation, then obviously it's weakening its own centrality.
And if you look at the statement that I mentioned, right, that was released after the informal ASEAN ministerial meeting, there was a paragraph two, which emphasises all these community values, the constitution government, rule of law, protection and promotion of human rights and so on and so forth.
You know, there's little point in reciting these good values and principles, unless you actually take actions to appoint them. And it is time for ASEAN, to take actions to uphold these principles and show that ASEAN is made of not just its protective, sort of non-interventionist principle, but also all these other positive norms and principles, which suggests that ASEAN is a genuine regional community where people care about things that happen in the neighbourhood.
Simon Kearney: Structurally what's stopping ASEAN from doing this?
Yongwook Ryu: So my sense is that it's actually going through a consultation stage within ASEAN. So the way ASEAN operates is based on consultation and consensus. So that's why it takes a long time, right? When we need urgency, it still needs to go through this consultation with all the other members. So I think that's where ASEAN is. And of course not everybody is on the same page as to what to do. I think there are some members such as Indonesia, the Philippines and maybe supported by Malaysia and Singapore, that push for slightly hard line action towards the military.
And then there are other members of ASEAN that are either indifferent or sympathetic to the situation that the military in Myanmar is in. So for example, you know, Thailand, which is typically a sort of you know, has a very active civil society groups which, you know, oppose where human rights and so on and so forth, has been very quiet. And we know why, right? Because Thailand had its own military coup, therefore, you know, it doesn't want to make a big deal out of this militia coup in Myanmar.
And then the more authoritarian governments in Indochina, they also don't want to say too much negative things against the military. Maybe there is some like government to government connections between these other authoritarian Southeast Asian member states and the military in Myanmar. Within ASEAN, there is a diverse set of views on this issue. That's why ASEAN is not able to take concrete action towards the current situation in Myanmar.
Simon Kearney: What would the implications be of suspending Myanmar's membership? You say that's one solution in your paper or one suggested action, but could that actually then sort of push them outside the room, so to speak?
Yongwook Ryu: Yes. The danger of suspending Myanmar's membership of ASEAN, is to push Myanmar closer to China, to Beijing. We know that the military cannot rely on the UN, or US, or the West, or Japan, for that matter. So there's only one right outside option, which is Beijing.
And of course, that's not a positive development for ASEAN, but you know, my view is that we are already in a situation where we cannot seek to maximise on all these other values or goals that ASEAN is going after.
I think this is a time for ASEAN to choose which values and norms and principles it wants to uphold, and which ones that it's willing to give up. So the danger of suspending Myanmar's membership of ASEAN is to push Myanmar towards Beijing and maybe invite external political intervention, which is not good.
But if you don't do it, the downside of not taking such an action is you're going to weaken your own social existence and purpose. You're going to weaken your centrality in shaping regional affairs, and you are going to disrespect your own values and principles.
We think that ASEAN need to suspend temporarily, Myanmar's membership and we recognise there is a potential downside. But we want to give more weight and emphasis to this community values, the norms and principles of good governance, constitutional government, human rights and so on and so forth. That's our view, but we actually understand the concerns and dangers and risks of doing this.
Simon Kearney: Bernard and Myat Myat, what do you think would be the view on the ground of being suspended by ASEAN and also, what's the view on the ground in Myanmar of China and perhaps a closer alignment to China, if that happened?
Bernard Minn: The idea of suspension or even revoking Myanmar's membership from ASEAN, does resonate with the broader Myanmar public. I think broadly speaking, it is something that's very challenging and a step for ASEAN to take as well.
But one of those perspectives also to have in this case is ASEAN is very much a family that they considered themselves as a very close tight-knit family of 10 different members. And within kind of the relationship of this family in a way, Myanmar has always posed challenges given that some of the past history and the events that they've taken, whether it be the crisis in Rakhine State, whether it be the saffron revolution and Cyclone Nargis, as well as back in the 1990s in the coup from that. It always hasn't quite set well within the ASEAN family and the ASEAN charter as well the values that they state in that.
But the principle point to make in that space is that bad behaviour gone unpunished only continues to beget continuous bad behaviour in the future. And this is where a stronger stance needs to be taken.
Simon Kearney: What would be the view in Myanmar of potential closer alignment with China?
Myat Myat Mon: Before I talk about China, let me add one point on ASEAN. I have seen people, asking to suspend Myanmar membership to ASEAN. People really want the military general to be isolated and to be not connected with any of the international partners. So the on-ground demand from Myanmar, they really want ASEAN to suspend Myanmar's membership.
So talking about China, on Sunday, in one of the industrial townships in Yangon, what happened was that two Chinese factories has been burned down and the military and the police started to surround the neighbourhood. And that whole township was in lockdown.
More than 70 people has been shot to death. This is just a reported number, only in one day, in that same township. So the Chinese factory has been burned down, and the Chinese Embassy on the same day has released a statement calling the protesters as rioters. And started to ask, the military personnel and the police to protect their access and Chinese citizen.
But the protestors denied these allegations, that they did not burn down the Chinese factory because why do they have to burn down? Because those factories are very close to the neighbourhood and the fires can even spread to the neighbourhood.
After the Chinese embassy has released such a statement, the military regime, they imposed the martial law in five townships in Yangon. So what the martial law can do is that the regional commander, he has the sole authority for the judicial or other powers. So right now, there are some anti-China sentiment going on in Myanmar and then, for the Chinese, for now, because the military is in power, it is very realistic and it is very possible that the Chinese will side with the military to protect their access and the oil and gas pipeline in the short term. But in the long-term, I will say, ignoring the [people's] desire is really not good for [China's] image in Myanmar in the very long run.
I think at this moment, the anti-China sentiment is growing and growing. And Chinese government really should consider that diplomacy and their engagement with the Myanmar people.
Yongwook Ryu: This is all very interesting. I know these two folks told me once that the military [in] Myanmar doesn't that actually trust Beijing all that much. It's really the last option for the military to go under Chinese influence. And I think that's where ASEAN's leverage over the military comes from. That's the first point.
And second point is I think the Beijing government is not so naive and it doesn't actually care whether it's the military or Aung San Suu Kyi that's in power so long as either one of them, or both of them are pro-Beijing and willing to cooperate with Beijing's various Belt and Road initiative projects in Myanmar.
Right now, there's a sort of this political conflict in Myanmar. The Chinese government is watching the situation very carefully. If the military wins this domestic conflict, then yes, Beijing will support the military so that it can do projects in Myanmar, but it also wants to make sure that the ordinary people in Myanmar would not become so anti-Chinese, because you know, political regimes come and go, whereas these public sentiments can last much longer.
So Beijing doesn't want to get involved in the situation in such an explicit manner. That's why we haven't seen much action coming from Beijing. I think all the major parties are sort of pushing ASEAN from behind the scene, pushing ASEAN to do a mediation work.
And as Bernard mentioned, you know, I think our immediate focus should be on mediation and bringing the parties to the negotiating table. We are only advocating a temporary suspension of Myanmar, as a last resort policy if the situation doesn't improve, if the military continues its violent crackdown of the protestors.
That's when ASEAN should be prepared for hard line measures against the military.
Myat Myat Mon: Yeah, can I add one more point? The quasi-democratic government from 2010 to 2015, that quasi democratic government led by the military generals, they did not really have a proper relationship with China because the Myitsone Dam, which is a strategically located hydro-power dam project in the north of Myanmar was suspended by the quasi democratic government. Since then, China has been a little bit worried, about such kind of projects being suspended by their former friends.
And then during the Aung San Suu Kyi period, what also drove her to lean more towards China was the Rohingya crisis in Rakhine state. So a lot of the Western partner[s] [have] condemned the crisis. And then for her government, it was just China to rely on that. And then the Chinese government at the same time, their diplomacy was also expanded to different layers of political entities and [the] public. For example, they invited political parties to come and meet with the CCP in Beijing, they offer a lot of scholarships to the Myanmar students and the Chinese government they really wanted, to maintain positive image of China and with their public diplomacy in Myanmar, during the Aung San Suu Kyi period.
Simon Kearney: How does that compare with the perception that like the soft power of some of the ASEAN States in Myanmar?
Yongwook Ryu: Does ASEAN have soft power in Myanmar?
Myat Myat Mon: So far, yeah, because the people you know, ASEAN is very culturally connected like Thailand, Cambodia, we share a lot of same culture, same type of food and et cetera. But especially after the inaction by ASEAN, [this] has drove the people to [have] not very positive view towards ASEAN as an institution, but not ASEAN people because the other ASEAN people, what we call, "Milk Tea Alliance", like Malaysia, there's a Milk Tea Alliance group in Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand. So these political activists in other ASEAN countries have already made it clear that they stand with Myanmar. So the people are very connected with people to people, but not with the institution, I would say.
Simon Kearney: On that point, I think, we'll probably wrap it up, but maybe, I could ask each of you, to give us a little forecast of what you think might happen in the next month or so?
Myat Mon: My speculations is very pessimistic because we just received news last night that [across] the whole country the internet would be shut down. So which means that all the communications back to Myanmar will be cut off. The people from outside Myanmar, we won't be able to see what is going on inside the country or whether they are killing people or, you know, the building is being burnt down. So all the information will be cut out very, very soon and things will be terrible.
Simon Kearney: Yeah, it's going to be a dreadful situation. Bernard, what do you see happening?
Bernard Minn: I'll try share a slightly more optimistic view. In terms of where the trajectory is headed, we're headed towards a very much more escalated violence, but that does not mean that we're not at a point of no return at this point. The window of opportunity is very, very quickly narrowing, but we are still at a point where ASEAN can still play a critical role to push forward mediation as well between the two parties of the protestors and the military generals as well.
And I'm still optimistic that, because that is one of our very few hopes, to depend on that we can reach a resolution and we don't need to resort to massive violence. Because as Myat has alluded to before, we won't see a civil war because it's not arms against arms. And we will see a very violent outcome. And I think that's something that we must avoid and we must hope for a resolution to the situation.
Simon Kearney: Professor Ryu, I'll give you the last word.
Yongwook Ryu: Thanks. So yeah, so similar to these wonderful young people. Yeah, immediately, I think, you know, the situation will not improve, so we would probably see a bit more violence and few more killings here and there. If ASEAN steps up and, and steps in to mediate between the two parties, then I think, you know, we, we need to pay attention to exactly what the negotiated outcome could it become.
We might go back to the 1990s, you know, sort of political compromise between the military and the NLD. Then we are actually back to square one or if the military is willing to make more concessions then, we see a bit more improved version of democracy in Myanmar.
If the protesters give in and the military insist on its own current position, then we know that you know, we are actually going back to [an] earlier period in Myanmar's history. I think the most likely scenario is if ASEAN's mediation is [a] success then it would be similar to the 2012-ish when the NLD and the military somehow managed to come to an agreement whereby the military gets 25% of seats. In the national assembly, there's a free election. And then the public votes NLD into power and that sort of power sharing arrangement.
But we know that, you know, that cannot be the final resolution. We've tried that. That's only an interim outcome. The final outcome has to be something else. And you know, I think we need to give more weight to the people, not the military.
And so in the end, it's the people of Myanmar that need to decide the future form and matter of the political regime and governance in Myanmar. And that's what we need to respect.
Simon Kearney: Thanks very much, this is the Foreseeable Podcast, and we've been speaking to Professor Yongwook Ryu, and students Bernard Minn, and Myat Myat Mon from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. Thanks very much for being with us.
Yongwook Ryu: All right. Thank you.
(photo: Macau Photo Agency)