David Austin: Hong Kong has been a flashpoint in the news off and on since March of 2019, when thousands of people took to the streets in protest of a proposed extradition bill. Since then the bill was officially withdrawn but the situation remains troubled. More recently, China passed a national security law that could completely change Hong Kong's relationship with the mainland, yet how the law will be implemented remains to be seen.
The dynamic between Beijing and Hong Kong is what Alfred Wu, Associate Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy would call a "centre periphery" relationship. That may sound a bit formal, but it incorporates all the drama and uncertainty of the current situation. I asked him to explain his analysis. Later we address the national security law.
David Austin: What do you mean by that? When you talk about centre versus the periphery?
Alfred Wu: It means that a central government is making some decisions, but some areas are not actually, quite close to the central government.
Maybe they are different culturally. Or they may be different financially, so they could not understand each other.
In that case, a lot of our problems happen. Like in Hong Kong's case, Hong Kong's culture is very different from Beijing. So, you create another problem called, centre and the periphery relations. In China, we have a number of similar problems. One is the relationship between Hong Kong and Beijing and the relationship between Tibet and Beijing.
Mostly that is because of historical reasons. Or sometimes it's due to a financial reason or [it] could be because of a culture difference.
David Austin: I wanted to ask you to give us an overview of what the "one country, two systems" really means, and as far as how it applies to Hong Kong SAR status and what is meant by the term Basic Law? For someone who may not be that familiar with the situation, how do you describe it?
Alfred Wu: I will say that at that time Deng Xiaoping was very clear in terms of making these arrangements. He tried to utilise Hong Kong as a channel to connect with the Western world. He came up with a so-called "one country, two systems." Basically, without Hong Kong, the situation would be tough for China. So even in the Mao period; Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai, then Premier, did not want to, so-called "conquer" Hong Kong, they tried to let Hong Kong be independent and try to be a bridge between the West and the East.
Deng Xiaoping realised the importance of Hong Kong. So, he thought [that] these solutions could finally solve the Taiwan issue.
If Taiwan could return to China, then they could use the same model for Taiwan. For example, [if] Taiwan maybe, [could] remain very much autonomous in addition to some power transfer back to Beijing, for example like, defence.
So, they think under this model they can solve [the] Hong Kong issue, they also can solve [the] Taiwan issue.
David Austin: The "one country, two systems" is the solution, the big idea that Deng Xiaoping came up with to solve the problems of Hong Kong and perhaps Taiwan, and then the Basic Law is how it was written to describe how it would work. The Basic Law of Hong Kong, is that correct?
Alfred Wu: Yeah, the Basic Law actually tried to lay down a legal framework for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. Yes, true.
David Austin: And that's the law where it says that Hong Kong will have a high degree of autonomy except when it comes to defence and foreign affairs, correct?
Alfred Wu: Yes, right.
David Austin: Speaking of Deng Xiaoping, some people were saying that when he came up with the idea of "one country, two systems", and was looking ahead 50 years down the road, that at that time he was pragmatic enough to say that if "one country, two systems" was still working fine in 50 years to just leave it that way. Do you agree with that? Was that the sentiment on his side?
Alfred Wu: Yes. And Deng Xiaoping did mention that. Deng Xiaoping was very confident, because he thought, after 2047 China would be very developed economically. So, no need to have a "one country, one system."
He also thinks we could utilise Hong Kong's advantage, and continue with that kind of arrangement. I would say that he was very forward-looking.
David Austin: Have things changed since President Xi has become the president of China?
Alfred Wu: Sometimes we need to look into that kind of continuous process, not all policies are made by Xi Jinping. In the past, they did have some disputes between Hong Kong and the central government. For example, in 2003 the central government intended to pass a law in Hong Kong mandating Hong Kong government to arrest people who go against the [central] government. For example, if they try to say something going against central government's interest, for example, they want to separate the country. Then they could be arrested in Hong Kong.
But at that time half a million people went to the streets. So, the law was not passed during [that] occasion. Then after that, the central government has changed the policy. The central government became much more assertive since then.
David Austin: So, there has been a trend towards more centralised power. And so, this would be the centre taking greater control over the periphery. Is that how you'd say it?
Alfred Wu: Yes. Another issue [which] is a very important thing, over the past 10 years, in 2008, China held the Olympic games in Beijing. China actually, also has obtained [a] much more important position around the world, particularly out of [the] financial crisis in 2008 and 2009. So, China tried to have more say in the world. So, within the country, the central government also has become much more assertive.
In the past, I will say that, especially under Deng Xiaoping, the central government was a little bit humble.
They tried to ask [the] local government to develop on their own pace. But now it sounds like the central government is very confident, so they try to say to the local governments in Hong Kong, "You don't need to do a lot of things. You need to listen to me."
That's a very important message from the central government.
David Austin: In a way you think that's a sign of their growing success and power that they're now wanting to, as you put it, I guess be less humble and take more control?
Alfred Wu: Yes. It looks like some kind of so-called, "self-reinforced" process.
So [the] central government thinks they are doing very well, they obtained a reputation around the world, they are respected by world leaders.So local government, you need to listen to central government's arrangements.
David: Can you please describe the details of this new national security law and what does it mean and what does it actually say?
Alfred Wu: It's really a surprise to see the national government in China promoting the national security law at the national level.
In the past, it was a tougher issue for Hong Kong SAR government to handle. Because under the Basic Law, the Hong Kong SAR government has the obligation to pass a law on national security.
Hong Kong could not be a base for violating national security issues.
That was the agreement in the 1980s. But now the issue is, over the past, 20 years, it was a big headache for [the] Hong Kong SAR government to have this law. The biggest gap between [the] Hong Kong SAR government and also people is, how to have implementation details. So, it means that the majority of people will think the national security law is necessary. But at some time, people just worry about Hong Kong [having] a similar system like China.
That's worrying, because in a Chinese system, secret police can come to your home. The trial may not be open.
Also, in Hong Kong there were a number of cases suspected to be related to China's national security law enforcement. So, some people disappear, [and] later on appear in Chinese courts. So, it's related to so-called "national security law implementation in China."
The gap between [the] Chinese law system and [the] Hong Kong Law system is huge.
Now, the issue is the national government wants to impose the national security law on a national level. So, it means that they will impose the national law enforcement style in Hong Kong. But many Hong Kongers, including law professionals, think Hong Kong should follow a common law system. Still, it's not clear how they are going to implement the national security law in Hong Kong. One guess is they will use a Chinese law system.
So, it means that they will have their own law enforcement system in Hong Kong. So, they will arrest people. Then they will actually sentence people to jails or other terms under Chinese law system.
But another much more benign scenario is, Hong Kong law enforcement system will handle the cases, but the law actually is passed by the national-level government.
David: So, you're saying the law is unclear as to which of those scenarios it will actually take as far as implementation?
Alfred Wu: Yes. At this moment the detail is not released yet. But generally, people can guess that under a Xi Jinping regime it will be highly possible that the law enforcement in China, they will come to Hong Kong to enforce the law.
David: Well, that does seem more likely, especially since you've said there's already clear examples. Where that's been done when you were talking about people disappearing and then showing up in the Chinese law system, is that what you mean?
Alfred Wu: Yeah, so that's also really worrying to lots of businesspeople in Hong Kong and also ordinary people in Hong Kong.
That's also why the US responded to [the] national security law legislation very strongly.
David: And the law from what they've released so far does allow for domestic intelligence agency. Isn't that right?
Alfred Wu: Yeah, exactly. In the law, it's actually stated very clearly. In Chinese, they do have some kind of a debate on how to implement it. But generally, if you look into the clause, you will find that the Chinese side will set up a law enforcement branch in Hong Kong.
So that's a very big concern, because in the past they have a very clear boundary between Hong Kong's common law system and a Chinese law system.
David: Does this really signal an end to the one country, two systems, like a lot of people are saying?
Alfred Wu: I think I would agree with that. The reason is, in the past, Hong Kong had a number of characters that are very different from mainland China. The number one was rule of law based on a common law system.
That's also the reason why Hong Kong is very much an attractive place for investment and also trade.
Number two, it was about press freedom. And freedom of assembly, freedom of association.
The Chinese narrative is that they can rely on domestic market. If Hong Kong becomes an ordinary Chinese city, Hong Kong is no more a bridge between the West and East.
The Chinese still think they could survive. They think they don't need to rely on [an] external international market at this moment.
David: Do you think their confidence is justified?
Alfred Wu: I will say that if you're looking into statistics, you will not actually think in this way. The Chinese whole system, I would say that China has benefited a lot from the engagement with the international community.
But now the issue is, a lot of intellectuals and policy makers in China, they think China is strong enough, so they can have their own market. Even if the outside world closes the door, they can still survive.
David: Do you think Europe and the UK will respond as strongly as the US has?
Alfred Wu: I would say that the UK government actually made it very clear because in the 1980s, it was a deal between UK and China.
So, the UK government now thinks they have the obligation to help Hong Kong. So the UK government and also US governments try to have some coordination among developed economies to try to help Hong Kongers. But in the meantime, I will say that, because China really uses a so-called "economic coercion" to push many countries to stand with them, now the situation is [that] in many countries, they don't want to speak out.
Because it they speak out the Chinese will use the economic coercion to push them to stop talking about this issue. So, I will say that, "let's see."
The US and UK governments' reaction will directly impact Hong Kongers at this moment, maybe also in a negative way. For example, if the US will not actually treat Hong Kong as a special [customs] territory, then Hong Kong will not have the advantage to have trade with many countries.
Hong Kong's economic position in the world is declining.
David: What do you foresee happening to Hong Kong now? How do you think this is going to affect the future of Hong Kong?
Alfred Wu: I think Hong Kong's situation, it's in very poor shape at this moment.
People try to send their money abroad, enquiring about whether they can migrate to a third country. That's the public perception.
Then [the] second issue is about China-US relations.
You can see US is going to remove lots of special treatments about Hong Kong. So that's also worrying.
Under the previous arrangement, Hong Kong [was] enjoying separate customs territory. It means that if US impose any sanctions, for example, like high-tech on China, Hong Kong will not be affected. But now Hong Kong is no more special. Generally, I would say that investment will be less.
People will start to rethink about their business in Hong Kong.
David: What else do you think will happen between the US and China relationship? Obviously, this will make things worse, but do you have any idea of how things might play out?
Alfred Wu: I think that at this moment we cannot underestimate the poor relationship between China and the US. In the future, in terms of Hong Kong, I will say that, the special treatment toward Hong Kong by the US will be much less.
Eventually, Hong Kong will be really like an ordinary city like Shenzhen, to be engaged in a global, kind of trade system or other system.
So, in general, I would say that Hong Kong is unfortunately a venue for the fight between two countries. But the issue is the Chinese took the initiative of having the national security law at a national level.
It's very clear, [the] Chinese side had predicted the worst scenario.
David: They must have known that if Hong Kong loses the special economic status that it will hit the economy but you're saying they're willing to take that hit for greater security?
Alfred Wu: Outsiders will think in this way. [The] Chinese economy will be hit by the poor China-US relations. If Hong Kong become an ordinary city in China, then China's economy will be affected negatively. But if you look into the Chinese side, particularly lots ofso-called "intellectuals and also policymakers," they don't think in this way.
They think China is strong enough. So, China can rely on the domestic market. So that's a reason why a Global Times editor mentioned about that, if China wants any city in China to become a global financial centre, then China could make it.
So basically, they are very confident about the future.
Photo credit: Toby Oxborrow