The vision of the Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES) is to create a leading university-based think tank in Southeast Asia for generating “fit-for-purpose” sustainability policy analysis.
What we now know about climate change, is that human activity was responsible for decades of environmental destruction leading to the most serious risk to global development. As world leaders make plans to make good on the Paris Agreement targets, the climate risks are mounting. Experts, however, say that there is time to find decisive and necessary solutions. For one, Asia can lead the way in significantly decreasing greenhouse gas emissions. In tandem, a change of mindset is vital. Rising risks from climate change underscore the need to enhance resilience – that is, an urgent need for proactive interventions.
The Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy’s (LKYSPP) Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES) hosted a panel discussion cum book launch for Dr Vinod Thomas’ book,
Risk and Resilience in the Era of Climate Change, on 4 April 2023. Dr Thomas is a Distinguished Fellow in Development Management at the Asian Institute of Management, Manila. He was previously a Senior Vice President at the World Bank and Visiting Professor at LKYSPP.
The event, chaired by Li Ka Shing Professor in Public Management and IES Director, Professor Benjamin Cashore, was highlighted by a question and answer session with Singapore’s Minister for Sustainability and the Environment, Ms Grace Fu.
The panel explored how understanding the dynamics of these risks and boosting resilience can help countries address the pressing challenge of runaway climate change. The panel also unpacked Singapore’s strategies to tackle climate change and explored how the nation’s approach serves as a good example for the region.
Tackling the climate conundrum
Dr Thomas shared seven salient messages from his book regarding climate change.
He said, “Climate dangers are threat multipliers, and every nation is at high risk”. He mentioned Southeast Asia’s upward trajectory of climate disasters, highlighting that the region is also making the highest incremental contribution to carbon emissions.
Next, he cautioned that we should prepare for low probability but high impact risks (“black swans”) becoming high probability and high impact ones (“grey rhinos”).
Climate solutions are abundant, but mindsets and policies must change. “There are changes that can be triggered. Just like we tax cigarettes, why don't we tax pollution? But essentially mindsets need to change and that is the gap that we face just about everywhere in varying degrees”.
Dr Thomas highlighted that transformation starts with netting out spill-over damages from GDP growth. Sharing a quote from economist Joseph Stiglitz, “GDP is not a good measure of economic performance, it's not a good measure of well-being,” Dr Thomas drew attention to the UNDP’s Climate Inclusive Human Development Index. He said of the index, “It is a measure of human development index inclusive of planetary impacts. That's what you want.”
“Having lost decades of inaction, now the time has come when transformative change alone can move the needle. It’s not enough to do marginal incremental changes, which are the comfort zone of economists.”
He also discussed the need to be direct when looking at cause and effect, attributing damages to carbon emissions. Accounting for the root causes of these calamities, and not just their symptoms, is crucial to slowing down the rise of these disasters.
Dr Thomas also shared that “Asia needs to accelerate resilience-building, including mitigation and adaptation”. The region needs to quickly and significantly revamp its policies and investments in order to effectively address the escalating challenges posed by climate change.
Singapore's approach to addressing climate change is exemplary for Asia
According to Dr Thomas, Singapore's efforts in adapting to climate change provide a great example for the region.
He said that Singapore is probably the world’s leader on adaptation plans as well as investments, highlighting measures such as improved drainage to mitigate floods and safeguarding coastal areas from the impacts of rising sea levels.
He drew attention to Singapore's strategies, including water recycling, desalination investments and local food production goals, as noteworthy examples to learn from. He also mentioned Singapore's Green Plan and the commitment to spend $100 billion this century to address rising sea levels. Together, these efforts weave a compelling narrative of proactive action.
He emphasised that countries in the region must promptly adopt more ambitious climate targets and implement mitigation measures like carbon taxes, renewable energy subsidies and restrictions on fossil fuel usage. As an example, he pointed out that Singapore has already introduced a progressive carbon tax.
Making swift investments in cleaner economies in Asia and building resilience to cope with increasingly severe impacts of climate change could yield dividends in terms of improved health and economic benefits. Dr Thomas suggested that this proactive approach could serve as a competitive advantage for Asia, as being an early adopter would likely result in the greatest benefits.
In response to Dr Thomas’ discussion, Ms Fu noted that Singapore has always been looking at our exposure to risks and thinking of ways to mitigate them. “From day one, we struggled with supply of labour, supply of resources, supply of water in particular. And we have always thought about how we should, as a nation, mitigate risks,” she said.
Further dissecting the movement towards sustainable development and climate action, she observed that the risk assessment started in the finance sector.
“It is about studying the portfolio of all your bank loans, all your exposure to companies across the entire economy, and asking ourselves, what is the impact of a 1.5 °C or 2 °C increase (above pre-industrial levels) on your entire portfolio. The central banker starts thinking about that, and starts to add up the impact across all jurisdictions. That is quite a frightening eventuality,” she mused.
Further elaborating on this, she remarked, “Just imagine a 2 °C increase impacting your entire property portfolio, your entire manufacturing portfolio. For example, when there is an inundation of floods and droughts, what effect would that have on the food production sector, what would that do to your bank, your assets and the economy?”
On the topic of resilience, Ms Fu said that Singapore has been taking a long-term perspective to enhance its ability to withstand and adapt to future challenges, such as more severe droughts impacting water supplies in the area, or adverse weather conditions jeopardising food imports.
“If you need to name one incident that made us sit up and review our plans: it would be the serious drought that we experienced in recent years. You see this long period of dry spells happening not just in Singapore, but also across the causeway where we import our water from.”
Ms Fu also talked about food security. “What if you have some risks that affect a large number of the countries which you import from? Will that happen? If so, how, where, and what do we need to do about it? And so that's the preparation process that we are going through now. We are collaborating on R&D projects to study the impact of climate change on food production in the region”.
Singapore is also exploring carbon removal. “We are interested to see how we can remove carbon dioxide, and not just mitigation. One interesting project that PUB is doing looks at sequestration, the capturing of carbon dioxide in seawater.”
Priorities for tackling climate change
On the topic of climate change and what needs to be done, Prof Cashore invited the panel to think about the top priorities in the coming months and years that need the most attention.
Dr Thomas brought up the importance of education. “The policy answers are known, but the gap is the political willingness, which I think is underpinned by public pressure or awareness.”
Ms Fu added that activating finance is another critical priority. Financial ability is a problem for many countries at this point in time, particularly as they are emerging from the pandemic. She said that the faster we can get blended finance going, the faster we are able to develop and deploy needle-moving climate solutions.
Prof Cashore noted the importance of addressing multiple interventions at the same time. He added that we must also “conduct useful research on questions that matter the most, given that the nature of the crisis getting worse over time”.
Inspiring action for a sustainable future
Dr Kim Nicholas, an Associate Professor of Sustainability Science at Lund University, led a climate march previously with a memorable slogan, “It's warming. It's us. We are sure. It's bad. We can fix it.” Ms Fu urged the audience to think about this simple yet meaningful slogan.
On the climate crisis, Ms Fu shared, “It is a mammoth problem on a global scale. We need the right policy and the right mindset to fix this problem”.
She encouraged the audience to make the Green Nation Pledge, which is a commitment to help make Singapore a green, liveable and climate-resilient home. This pledge is a timely reminder that we can all play a part and take action towards creating a sustainable future.
Watch the full discussion here: