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What do recreational licenses to shoot moose in Canada have to do with climate policy?
Quite a lot, it turns out. Moose consume vegetation, triggering carbon loss from the ecosystem. And the way they forage triggers other biological processes, which further amplifies the impact. According to one study, failing to take this into account could lead policymakers to overestimate the ability of boreal forests to store carbon by 40%–60%.
More hunting licenses could help to control the moose population, and would mean the forests would lock up more carbon. And because various industries are likely to emerge around moose hunting, the political cost of reversing the policy would immediately be quite high.
It might seem like a convoluted way to do something about climate change, but it's an example of a more innovative policy framework for approaching global problems.
Professor Benjamin Cashore, Li Ka Shing Professor in Public Management at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, thinks new approaches are needed to deal with climate change, a challenge he categorises as a "super wicked problem" According to him, the four defining characteristics of what makes a "super wicked problem" include:
1) Time is running out to solve the problem
2) There is no central authority
3) Those seeking to end the problem are also causing it, and
4) Policies discount the future irrationally based on scientific evidence.
In Integrating policy and ecology systems to achieve path dependent climate solutions, a paper he co-authored in Environmental Science and Policy, he argued that policymakers have become too cosseted by standard cost-benefit analyses, and as such, they are missing opportunities to make a difference. Additionally, in another study, he established that most policy analyses are preoccupied with seeking balance and coming up with a solution that benefits all society as a whole.
As such, the current approach to policy problems is too simplistic and does not deliver the best results. It has undermined the discovery and application of targeted policy tools that can ameliorate unique problems, which is especially significant for a problem as global and fragmented as climate change.
"It's time for us to embrace complexity as a society to solve our problems," he said.
Steering path dependence
Specifically, Prof Cashore wants policymakers to embrace path dependence, which is the idea that the range of available policy options tends to be limited by the decisions that have been made before it (and that certain decisions made today will limit policy options tomorrow).
"Most of the things we do in life, even our own ways of seeing the world, are the result of path dependent choices. The religions we have, the schools we go to, the constitutions that control us, the rules that we abide by. So most things are path dependent. By recognising path dependent outcomes, instead of being affected by them inadvertently, maybe we can steer them instead," he said.
By making use of path dependence, policymakers might be able to come up with policies that are easy to implement, but hard to reverse once they're in place. A provincial government in Canada, for example, might be reluctant to reverse a policy on hunting licenses for moose because the tourism businesses that spring up around them could make such a move politically costly.
One successful example mentioned by Prof Cashore in his lecture "Managing COVID-19 as a Super Wicked Problem: Lessons From, and for the Climate Crisis" is Germany's feed-in tariff programme, where the government subsidised the solar panels to homeowners over 20 years. In turn, homeowners will get paid at retail price over the excess energy that is not used. Over time, it has been adopted by most Germans and resulted in lower carbon footprints and lower prices for solar panels globally. This method has been adopted in 130 jurisdictions worldwide.
"Discernible, plausible logic"
Prof Cashore acknowledges that using path dependence in policy has its risks, too. For example, how can anyone know ahead of time what policies will lead to path dependence? And if the policy idea actually turns out to be harmful, then its irreversibility would be a problem.
A policy designed to take advantage of path dependence shouldn't be based on a mere guess, but "discernible, plausible logic about why it might unleash path dependent processes", said Prof Cashore.
Furthermore, he thinks that policies that make use of path dependence should always be directed towards specific goals. In the case of climate change, a policymaker should be able to explain how a path dependent policy will help to limit climate change to less than 2 degrees.
"We didn't say this was the answer. We said, in that paper, 'This is the kind of thing that happens when you apply this framework.' So we think there's a lot more generation of innovative ideas around policy levers that can emerge," he said.
One of many tools
Prof Cashore emphasises that this is only one possible set of tools for approaching policy. The goal is for policymakers to consider a broader set of options rather than abandon existing ones.
It is still important to push for major political goals, such as a global agreement to limit carbon emissions or for local renewable energy targets. One example is the Paris Climate Accord, where 195 signatories worldwide agreed to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius. But that's not the only way to make a difference.
"We're not saying it's a better way, per se, what we're saying is that there are a lot of ways we can address the climate crisis," he said.
Global action towards climate change & COVID-19
The other 'super wicked' problem that Prof Cashore mentioned is the COVID-19 pandemic that still put most countries in crisis mode until today. He said that COVID-19 proves the importance of global cooperation more than ever before. "Not only is it important to reduce conflict and promote trade, but it also gives us a common purpose in addressing these two 'super-wicked' problems."
In addressing these problems, he explained the importance of having "Thermostatic Global Institutions" where governments can implement swift policy changes and maintain them in society. "Look at the COVID numbers in the US and Singapore, for instance. There's a stark contrast because of policy. In Singapore, there are these 'police' that remind you how to interact socially. Meanwhile, in the US, a mask is not even mandatory," he explained.
The same institutions are also applicable to climate change through the Paris Climate Accord. "With cooperation, governments worldwide can assist each other to achieve their commitments, identify promising climate-friendly policy levers, and create innovative low carbon pathways," said Prof Cashore. These actions are in every country's long-term interests.
Yes, having advocacy towards these issues is essential, but it's crucial to keep in mind that having a policy design is equally important, if not more. As Prof Cashore echoed, "It's insufficient to only advocate for effective global policies; we also need to spend much more time on their design."
Watch Professor Cashore in "Managing COVID-19 as a Super Wicked Problem: Lessons from, and for, the Climate Crisis":