The direct impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has already been devastating, especially in epicentres like Wuhan in China, Lombardy in Italy and now New York City in the United States of America.
The economic effects have also been quick to hit, with extreme volatility on global markets and record jobless claims in many countries. In the United States alone, the number of people who filed claims for unemployment benefits shot to a record high of more than 6 million in a single week. Closer to home, the Monetary Authority of Singapore also noted that Singapore's economy will shrink by 1% to 4% this year. The world is bracing for a recession.
But how will the pandemic affect global diplomacy? At a time when many believe requires unprecedented global cooperation, will the virus bring nations together or drive them further apart?
US-China relations
So far, the pandemic seems to have sown division between the world's two biggest economies. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly described SARS-COV-2 as the "Chinese virus" and the US State Department pushed to include the term “Wuhan virus” in a joint statement of the G7 ministerial meeting on 24 March, which resulted in separate statements.
On Twitter, a platform banned in China, a Chinese official pushed unfounded rumours that the US military brought the virus to Wuhan late last year . In addition, there’s been a tit-for-tat round of expelling Chinese journalists from the US and American journalists from China.
The Beijing-Washington relationship had already been tense well before the pandemic began. There are long running frictions over the South China Sea and Taiwan, and the protests in Hong Kong have not made relations any smoother. But it is trade that has been the biggest bone of contention over the past few years, with the US ratcheting up tariffs and Beijing responding in kind.
So far, the global pandemic has only threatened to further elevate tensions. Much of the US medical supply chain is in China, and the US is facing a shortage of medical equipment that could prove deadly. The Associated Press has found that hand sanitizer and swab imports both dropped by 40% while N95 mask imports were down 55% in the past month. China hawks within the Trump administration, like Trade advisor Peter Navarro, want policies that push US companies to reshore their production lines to the US. That's likely to have an impact, but not necessarily the one he intends.
"More likely is a shift to diversify regionally, or to invest more in capital equipment and robotics to reduce demand for inexpensive Asian labor," the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy's Associate Professor in Practice James Crabtree wrote in the Nikkei Asian Review.
"Some multinationals will repatriate as Navarro and his ilk demand, moving a portion of their production back to home markets in Europe, Japan or the US, or perhaps to markets close to them, like Mexico or Poland," he said.
But if relations are prickly, they can always improve. And Mr Trump gave a very upbeat assessment of his most recent discussion with his Chinese counterpart.
"Just finished a very good conversation with President Xi of China. Discussed in great detail the CoronaVirus that is ravaging large parts of our Planet. China has been through much & has developed a strong understanding of the Virus. We are working closely together. Much respect!" he said on Twitter.
China's global ascension
China has spent the better part of a decade greatly expanding its role in global affairs. Its belt-and-road initiative involves more than a trillion dollars in infrastructure projects or loans in more than 60 countries over a decade, although estimates vary on the size and scale. The projects are aimed at reshaping the global trade routes and re-orienting the world towards Beijing.
"The COVID-19 outbreak has not dented President Xi Jinping's ambitions for the great rejuvenation of China,"" wrote Drew Thompson,a Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.
Although Trump will almost certainly continue to blame China for the outbreak, Beijing is making a determined effort to reframe the discussion. China is sending aid to a number of European countries, and it will send more than a million test kits as well as Personal Protective Equipment to Africa, where public health systems are weak. In an effort President Xi Jinping has described as a "health Silk Road".
But if China is donating badly-needed gear, its motives might not be totally altruistic. For example, one major donation to the Netherlands (which has seen comparatively few cases) came from Chinese telecoms giant Huawei. Some have suggested that's a little too convenient, given that 5G auctions are due to start in June.
There's no guarantee that China's overtures will improve its global standing. There are also risks on the domestic front as the Chinese economy tries to recover. China is likely to miss high-profile economic targets, and the response to the outbreak could worsen China's debt-to-GDP ratio, which was more than 300% before the outbreak, adds Thompson.
"The initial cover-up and politicisation of public health, like all aspects of Chinese society, reflect the underlying fragility of the country's system of governance," he said.
Pariah states
Already, there's a push to reduce sanctions on North Korea, Venezuela and Iran, which has seen a particularly bad outbreak of COVID-19. In fact, one Iranian university study said the pandemic could claim as many as 3.5m lives in a worst case scenario.
The US says there's no need to relax sanctions on Iran, as they don't apply to humanitarian assistance.
"They've got a terrible problem there and we want that humanitarian, medical assistance to get to the people of Iran," said Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
But critics say the tangled web of rules and regulations is so complicated that businesses and banks fear falling foul of an overzealous US administration even while trying to abide by the sanctions. The UK has pushed the US to ease up, and the EU is shipping medical supplies. The United Nations (UN) Human Rights Chief Michelle Bachelet has called for the sanctions to be relaxed.
"The majority of these states have frail or weak health systems. Progress in upholding human rights is essential to improve those systems – but obstacles to the import of vital medical supplies, including over-compliance with sanctions by banks, will create long-lasting harm to vulnerable communities," she said.
A fracturing European Union
The COVID-19 pandemic is not the only problem wreaking havoc in European states. In fact, Europe has succumbed to a "my-country-first" reaction, revealing the cracks in the supposed EU unity.
Despite the economies of Italy and Spain being absolutely devastated by the outbreak, Eurozone finance ministers could not agree on delivering joint aid. Only the independent European Central Bank has made any meaningful action to keep the Euro stable by providing member states with the liquidity they need.
It remains to be seen whether these European states can emerge from the crisis while still maintaining their unity. Europe's ability to play a meaningful role in the global context is also dependent on its ability to move past the "save yourself if you can" mindset.
Multilateral blues
The World Health Organisation (WHO) issued its first official guidance on COVID-19 on January 10, just days after the first cases appeared in Wuhan, and it has been intimately involved in the response ever since. It is now trying to find US$2bn for a fund to help protect the world's most vulnerable from the illness. So far it has only scraped together a little over 10% of that figure.
As an institution, the WHO has previously faced criticism both for not moving fast enough and for being too alarmist. And this time, it faced criticism for trying to placate China, even when it was apparent that the virus was spreading. Still, many public health advocates say it has played an absolutely vital role in trying to contain the illness.
But the UN body is in a difficult position, as it has little power and depends on the cooperation of nation states to conduct its business. It has a bi-annual budget of a little under US$5bn, which is less than what Facebook paid in fines to the US Federal Trade Commission last year. And much of it comes from private donors instead of nation states.
It's not at all clear that the WHO's role in responding will yield it more resources. In fact, one US Senator wants an investigation into the body, with an eye towards slashing funds. And even as the pandemic was starting to spread, the US President was proposing cuts to the CDC and the US contribution to WHO.
Small victories, big opportunities?
If there are disputes and disagreements that have been exacerbated, there are also suggestions of a diplomatic thaw in some places.
Despite long-running antagonism over a variety of issues, Japan acted quickly to marshal resources to help China in the early days of the outbreak. Members of the ruling party even made personal donations to help.
There are many other examples. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un wrote to South Korean President Moon Jae-in to express his condolences over the coronavirus outbreak. The UAE, which has frosty relations with Tehran, has nevertheless sent aid to Iran to fight the pandemic.
The key question is whether or not these short term overtures will result in longer term diplomatic gains, and whether those gains will balance out the additional friction elsewhere.
Credit: (Official White House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian)
Learn more in a new series of online discussions on the global pandemic as part of the Lee Kuan Yew School's "Asia Thinker Series”, bringing together a distinguished virtual panel of experts to examine public health lessons from the ongoing crisis, while looking forward to how to manage its next stages.
To view and participate in the Asia Thinker Series, please visit the following link and click on “Get Reminder” to receive a Facebook notification to tune in to the live stream before it starts:https://lkyspp.sg/34gNcMk
