"The Future of Asian Trade and Globalisation after COVID-19", the third virtual episode of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy's "Asia Thinker Series", in collaboration with the Centre on Asia and Globalisation was streamed live on Global-is-Asian's Facebook Page on 6 May 2020.
During the discussion, the audience tuning in raised several questions regarding how the pandemic would impact China's Belt and Road Initiative as well as the regional flow of goods and capital. Global-is-Asian caught up with Assistant Professor Marina Jose Kaneti from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy to help shed light on some of these questions.
Will China's Belt and Road initiative continue?
According to Prof Kaneti, as long as current Premier Xi Jinping is in power, the Belt and Road initiative will continue because it has always been a central component of his vision for China's future.
There is a difference, however, whether by Belt and Road we are referring only to infrastructure projects or to the overall geostrategic vision of the initiative. These two things are not necessarily the same.
Regarding China's infrastructure projects and investments, it is too early to tell how these will fare in the coming months. It could be very much the case that some projects remain on hold, or have parts of them folded. But at the same time, there are hundreds of projects out there, which leads Prof Kaneti to believe that a majority of the projects will resume operations. In fact, some of them have been operational throughout the pandemic.
"Some of them only folded parts of their work. Some of them are considering hiring local workers because the Chinese workers cannot get back into the country. So there is definitely the intent for the Belt Road infrastructure projects to continue," she says.
"One reason why the infrastructure projects are receiving little attention in Chinese media is because the conversation in China has shifted to domestic economic development. [The Belt and Road initiative] is very rarely mentioned in any speeches or in any addresses, and the focus has been on domestic development."
However, in terms of ideological language, the vision proposed as part of the Belt and Road is still very present in the official speeches, particularly the language around a "community of shared destiny." Xi Jinping has been invoking this language as part of his appeal to global cooperation and unity.
According to her, there is no question that the Belt and Road initiative will continue to evolve. That has been part of the process from the very beginning.
Right now, China is pivoting towards a "Health Silk Road" to aid in the fight against the coronavirus crisis, which was actually an initiative already built in the original Belt and Road framework.
"As far as I am aware, the initial formulation of the Health Silk Road dates to 2017, but the focus was on hospital construction and dissemination of traditional Chinese medicine. But now, it has evolved into a massive procurement strategy, which has remained somewhat overlooked because of the broader geopolitical tensions. Nevertheless, we should take notice of the type of rapid response that the Chinese government and foundations can deploy around the world in such a limited time," explains Prof Kaneti.
Will this initiative still benefit the global economy after the pandemic? It all comes down to what the "global economy" will constitute in the future. It remains to be seen how far Trump will go in his decoupling efforts and how they might be counterproductive, not just to China and the United States, but to the very meaning of a global economy itself.
"If there is a breakdown of this global economy, definitely, the Belt and Road will be beneficial to the countries that are involved because China is still very much vested in multilateralism. With a hundred plus partners that are currently part of the Belt Road, there could a semi-global economy in operation," she explains.
Shifts in immigration policies and flow of people
Apart from the Belt and Road initiative, the regional flow of goods and services in Asia is also impacted by the pandemic, but what about the movement of people?
Almost certainly, there will be changes in immigration policies, not just in Singapore or Asia. Such changes will inevitably be global: this, by virtue of the fact that the immigration system that governs our mobility is a global one. In other words, immigration policies are often reciprocal and it is rare for one country to restrict immigration without making an impact on the rest of the world.
In Singapore's case, the COVID-19 crisis is very much a migration crisis. Prof Kaneti expects that there will probably be various revisions to immigration policies, particularly in terms of how migrant workers enter the country, what kind of agreements are made with employers, and to what extent these agreements affect the community here.
Although there is much civil support for the migrant workers community now, she believes that it is even more crucial to have the same level of civil society support engaged when it comes to the discussion and revision of these immigration policies in the future.
"Civil society input is important at the time when policymakers sit down with the business community to redraft the policies and contracts for migrant workers," she says.
Reduced Mobility
Reduced mobility looks set to be an issue that the world has to contend with in the coming years. With various countries pushing for the movement restrictions on their citizens, in efforts to stem the spread of the virus, Prof Kaneti stresses the importance of paying attention to inequalities produced by this change.
"Certain people will still be able to travel, because they will be vaccinated, or show some immunity, or just have the privilege to quarantine themselves."
"On top of that, even though there are some legal measures put in place by the global community, there will still be people who, just as they did before COVID-19, have to continue moving. Not necessarily because they want to, but because they have no other options. That produces an additional layer of vulnerability and precarity that we all need to be concerned about," she continues.
There will still be famine, civil wars and other extraneous conditions that will force people out of their homes. A situation like the pandemic risks being used as an excuse by governments to shut their borders unflinchingly during humanitarian crises.
Migrant labour and economic recovery
Migrant labour is among the most vulnerable sectors that also has ties to a country's economic recovery. Looking at the current situation, this pandemic is likely to affect the mobility of migrant labour for many months to come.
There is no global mechanism currently that can force governments to do anything when it comes to migration, international and regional institutions only have minimal influence. If there were to be some global push to revisit migrant labour and mobility, it would have to come from the people.
"Since there is so much outpouring of support from civil society, right here in Singapore and in other places — this is a good place to start. If there will be a change, it will have to involve voices from the ground up," she says.
(Photo credit: rottonara)
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