The current conflict between the United States and China is “the biggest contest in geopolitical history” and risks destabilising the rules-based multilateral world order, unless both sides make significant efforts to pull back from the brink.
“In its 250 years of history, this is the biggest contest America has taken on, and it’s doing it almost blindfolded without thinking through properly the consequences of taking on China,” said Kishore Mahbubani, distinguished fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore, in a panel discussion during the inaugural Festival of Ideas — a four-day forum organised by the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKYSPP).
Speaking during the session, “Are the US and China Doomed to Enmity?”, he gave a sobering assessment of the rising tensions between both countries, adding it is “like a pendulum” that swings back and forth. “For now, it is moving towards confrontation. And the momentum cannot be stopped in the next two years.”
Bilateral relations between Washington and Beijing have deteriorated over the past year, with both sides embroiled in a tit-for-tat trade war after President Donald Trump decided to impose steep tariffs on Chinese imports in July 2018.
The trade friction has also caused significant headwinds for the global economy. The International Monetary Fund warned in October that trade tensions could drag down global growth to 3% this year — its slowest pace since the financial crisis a decade ago.
In an attempt to cushion the economic impact of the trade fallout on their respective countries, both sides have been involved in negotiations recently to hammer out a 'phase one' limited trade deal. Even those efforts have been stalled due to complications. For now, meaningful progress towards resolving the sticking issues remain elusive.
No long-term strategy
One of the biggest strategic blunders China made in recent times was to alienate the American business community, which has always been an advocate for strong relations with Beijing, underlined Mr Mahbubani, who was also Founding Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy from 2004 to 2017.
“There were mistakes China clearly made, from stealing intellectual property to forced technology transfers, which cost them the support of the US business community. In the past, when previous presidents tried to come down hard on Beijing for various human rights issues, this group has put the brakes on such moves.”
But he stressed the country has also reached a “tipping point” in terms of innovation and would be “happy to have a stronger intellectual property regime.” Instead of working with China to iron out the underlying issues, “the US is trying to beat it down.”
More importantly, China does not want to overthrow the current rules-based multilateral order because “they are the biggest beneficiary of it by far,” he added.
“This is the most critical point the Americans miss. The Chinese do not like disruptions and seek stability. And this is the paradox. It is now in the US’s national interest to strengthen the multilateral rules-based order. This is the best way for the US to engage China and generate global stability. The fundamental problem with President Trump’s current approach is that the US has no long-term strategy.”
Rationality needs to prevail
Mr Mahbubani, who was Singapore’s distinguished former ambassador to the UN, in his forthcoming book Has China Won? will address some of the key strategic issues currently affecting US and China relations, suggesting ways to avoid a confrontation and to manage their geopolitical rivalry.
“At end of the day, China actually doesn't want to take on the global responsibilities that the US has been undertaking. So these alarmist statements about China wanting to dislodge the US are misleading and all part of the Western narrative. China just wants to take care of itself. That’s their primary goal and they aren’t keen to take on the world’s burden.”
But he was quick to point out that a protracted conflict between the two major powers will severely hurt smaller countries in Southeast Asia that depend on both sides for strategic purposes such as military support and economic cooperation.
This is especially true for Singapore. In fact, the city-state’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, urged both China and US not to pressure small nations to take sides at the recent Shangri-La dialogue, Asia’s biggest security forum. He reiterated that Singapore’s attitude towards China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” as well as the US’s Indo-Pacific strategy was even-handed and consistent.
“Singapore is acutely aware it’s a small country and has to walk a very fine line,” noted Mr Mahbubani. “But the next 10 years will be challenging. Hopefully, Singapore’s track record helps to back it up that we can be fair and balanced.”
Looking ahead, he warned there will be more pressing challenges in the world that would require urgent global attention and greater cooperation between both countries.
“If the US and China do not step up to tackle these issues like climate change, future historians may look at them as two tribe of apes fighting each other while the forest around them is burning. It doesn’t make sense. There will be other forces at play that hopefully may push both countries towards rationality.”