In the wake of unprecedented destruction caused by events like Hurricane Dorian, governments around the world are grappling with the rising cost of natural disasters.
Such episodes are becoming more frequent and with greater intensity as the century unfolds. While their ultimate cost is unknowable, published science is unequivocal about the role played by greenhouse gas emissions from human activities.
The build-up of carbon dioxide from industrialisation is making the Earth's lower atmosphere warmer, contributing to more extreme heat waves and forest fires.
Warmer air holds more moisture, which can result in more intense rainfall. It also gives more energy to storms. Even if not at the level of individual events, climate scientists attribute the rising trends in flooding and heavy rains to climate change.
Yet some governments still see climate mitigation as harmful to their economic interests. As Dorian and a string of recent disasters show, the cost of doing nothing is far greater, particularly in Southeast Asia.
Action now outweighs long term costs
Research published recently by Professor Vinod Thomas from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in his book Climate Change and Natural Disasters provides a framework for understanding how climate action can drive economic growth, rather than feared as a brake on enterprise and growth.
On one estimate, the global average temperature has risen by about 0.85 deg C since 1970, while the average rise for Singapore in roughly the same period is an estimated 1.1 deg C.
The 2015 National Climate Change Study from the Meteorological Service Singapore warns atmospheric warming could further increase the nation’s temperature between 1.4 deg C and 4.6 deg C by 2100.
As a result, sea levels in the Singapore Strait could rise by up to a metre or more by the end of the century, posing an obvious threat to low-lying urban areas.
In response, the Singapore government has proposed various measures such as raising minimum land reclamation levels from 3m to 4m above mean sea level and plans to install hard embankments along at least 70 percent of the coast.
That will be expensive, but Professor Thomas says the potential benefits in terms of lives saved and property protected far outweigh the costs.
"With the pace of climate change accelerating with every passing year and every new scientific projection, there is a huge payoff to Singapore in building higher defences and stronger resilience against climate-driven sea level rise," he explains.
With so much at stake financially, it might be tempting to take a 'wait and see approach' Professor Thomas argues that, too, would be a mistake because earlier investment will accrue greater returns – the so called 'sliding scale' effect.
"[The] payoff is that much higher if more of the investments were made in the earlier years rather than waiting for the climate risk to worsen and render any investment in adaptation costlier," he says.
"Commendable as it is that Singapore proposes to spend S$100 billion over the next 100 years – equivalent to … 0.2% of GDP currently – in engineering solutions to protect coastlines, the premium is high for a sliding scale favouring investments in the earlier years.
"These target a higher share of the S$100 billion in the immediate years rather than waiting for later years when engineering solutions will be that much tougher and costlier."
In low-lying cities around the world, the cost of flooding is already increasing as population pressure pushes the urban fringe into ever more vulnerable areas.
It is estimated annual losses will increase from $US6 billion in 2005 to $US52 billion by 2050 due to socioeconomic factors alone.
But when climate change and land subsidence is factored in, the figure could balloon to over a trillion US dollars per year if flood protection investment is not increased from current levels.
What are other countries doing?
Tokyo's Metropolitan Area Outer Underground Discharge Channel, the world's largest underground flood water diversion system, shows how other countries are addressing climate change.
A system of linked tunnels divert water away from the most vulnerable floodplains. These are the type of climate defences global cities should be investing in. It took billions of dollars to complete but its benefits are even bigger.
Japan spends some 5 percent of its national budget on disaster risk management and has avoided much worse economic damage and deaths from disasters because of this.
Other Asian nations are following Japan's risk management lead. As Jakarta sinks Indonesia is planning to move the nation's capital and economic centre to East Kalimantan on the island of Borneo. Shanghai has adopted a "sponge city policy" where man made wetlands capture rainwater for urban use rather than let it flow down drains.
In Bangkok a combination of mangrove barriers, water gates and super-levees are being proposed to fight against coastal erosion and stronger storms. To protect the city state from flooding during high-tides Singapore is investing 100 billion Singapore dollars on dykes, giant seawalls and Dutch-style "polders".
Lying on the equator, Singapore tends to be spared the worst ravages of Southeast Asia's tropical cyclones but its neighbours are not so lucky. The Philippines, for example, already gets 20 cyclones per year.
Investments in disaster management have already paid off. The effects of flooding in Manila after heavy monsoon rains in August 2012, for example, contrasted strongly with the devastation in the city from Tropical Storm Ketsana in 2009.
The country has demonstrated payoffs from social media alerts, pre-emptive evacuations, and early warning systems. It also highlighted the benefits of the hazard maps and upgraded rain and water-level monitoring systems.
The cost of inaction in ASEAN
Asia and the Pacific generally have been at the forefront of extreme weather events in the past decade, with damage estimated at close to $S1 trillion.
Of the ten countries worldwide thought to be most affected by climate change, four – Myanmar, Vietnam the Philippines and Thailand – are ASEAN members and the pain is only likely to increase.
The Asian Development Bank estimates the region could lose up to 11 percent of its GDP by century's end due to climate-related hazards and disasters.
Compared to other developing regions, it is relatively well prepared in terms of risk management capability and infrastructure but global warming has raised the bar. Investment must be made now to reduce the huge threat to growth and living standards.
Tackling emissions
Adapting, however, is only one part of the agenda – mitigation measures to reduce CO2 are also required to lessen potential impact.
Once again, the earlier action is taken, the more effective it will be. For instance, a ten-year delay in climate mitigation will require the annual rate of decline in CO2 emissions to be twice as fast to stabilise its atmospheric concentration.
Perversely, coal plant capacity is actually expanding in South and Southeast Asia, which together account for half of the world’s planned coal power expansion. India, Vietnam and Indonesia combined alone account for over 30 percent.
To have any chance of sustaining solid long-term growth rates, the region must abandon plans to build new coal-fired power plants, retrofit existing ones, and sharply cut the emissions intensity of GDP.
In its place, the switch to renewables needs to be sped up.
"Costs of generating electricity from renewables have seen sharp decreases since 2009, such that levelised costs of electricity from solar photovoltaics and onshore wind in some regions can already compete with conventional coal plants," noted Professor Thomas in Climate Change and Natural Disasters.
He added: "The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that in 2015, 90 percent of all new electricity growth globally came from renewable sources with over 50 percent attributable to wind energy. This signifies a significant shift away from fossil fuels."
Climate-related disasters are arguably the most tangible manifestation of global warming but their terrible cost also helps focus attention and mobilise broader climate action.
This could be instrumental in transitioning to a path of low-carbon, green growth, improving disaster resilience, improving natural resource use, and caring for the urban environment.
Photo: Jenny Tañedo
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