China-India relations have witnessed a downturn in recent years, reaching their lowest point during the bloody Galwan skirmish in June 2020. The two rising Asian nations are emerging global players, hence the repercussions of their confrontation go further than their bilateral relationship: analysts have pointed out that the clash possibly pushed India toward greater strategic cooperation with Washington and the QUAD. Going beyond the often discussed China US India triangle, Sino Indian tensions have brought forth a new dynamic: the emergence of the China-EU-India triangle. As the EU wants to boost its profile as an Indo-Pacific player, it seeks to bolster ties with India, especially against the backdrop of deteriorating EU-China ties. The current trajectory of the China EU India strategic triangle suggests that parallel to a downward trend in EU-China relations, we could be seeing the advent of a golden era of EU-India ties.
China-India relations have been going downhill for a while. The relationship has been faring relatively well on the shaky basis laid down at the 1988 Rajiv Gandhi visit, but tensions have been building up after 2012 on multiple fronts. First, India has been wary about China’s emerging profile in the Indian Ocean and burgeoning cooperation with regional countries like Sri Lanka and the Maldives. Second, the two parties have different visions about regional connectivity. India has been one of the few states that distances itself from China’s Belt and Road Initiative—a grand enterprise aimed at connecting Africa, Asia, and Europe. Finally, the once dormant border dispute has increasingly become a source of tensions. The two sides engaged in bloodless standoffs in 2013, 2014 and 2015. In the summer of 2017, the two militaries stood eye-to-eye for 73 days on the Doklam Plateau, with the spectre of war lingering in the air. Tensions peaked last June when the two militaries clashed, claiming twenty Indian and four Chinese lives.
Given that the two countries have large populations, booming economies and formidable militaries, their bilateral frictions trickle beyond their boundaries. In the wake of the Galwan clash, India reconsidered its strategic ties and moved to boost cooperation with major actors like the US, Japan, Australia—and a relatively new player in the equation, the EU.
New Delhi’s timing was opportune for two reasons. First, the EU’s stance on China has been hardening. The EU uses a “multi-faceted approach” toward China by treating it as a rival, competitor, and partner. This slogan means that the EU is trying to cooperate with China in areas of mutual interest, such as climate change or the promotion of multilateralism. At the same time, it is putting pressure on China in areas of disagreement such as human rights and democracy. The EU’s sanctions, together with those of the United States, Britain, and Canada on Chinese officials for alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang and the ban on Xinjiang products such as cotton and tomatoes, were perceived in China as actions from hostile foreign forces defaming and curtailing China’s rise. In response, China imposed sanctions on European NGOs and individuals, including several members of the European Parliament. Overall, the EU-China relationship has been notoriously difficult to manage, and frictions manifested in the temporary halt in ratifying the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment.
Second, the EU is in the process of establishing itself as full-fledged Indo-Pacific actor, as witnessed by the April adoption of the EU Strategy for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. With its “strategy for cooperation”, the EU strives to promote a holistic agenda involving digital transformation, green initiatives and of course, security partnerships. Such an endeavour needs buy-in from regional states, among whom, India plays a key role.
Against this backdrop, India’s outreach was more than welcome in the EU. This May, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi participated in a summit with the EU in a unique format, where not only the Presidents of the European Council and European Commission were present but also all the 27 leaders of the EU Member States. This setup has a symbolic meaning that signals the high value EU leaders attach to their relationship with India. The participants of the summit proposed multiple areas of enhanced cooperation between Brussels and New Delhi, such as connectivity, trade as well as security and defence cooperation. In other words, the EU and India laid down the foundation of comprehensive joint ambitions for years to come.
The picture we see folding out is an EU tilt toward New Delhi. Such a development has key repercussions for all the actors involved. As far as Brussels is concerned, this trend puts the EU’s approach to rivalries into a new context. The EU has been reluctant to pick sides in the China-US rivalry, but in the China-India context, it appears that it is no longer equidistant between the two Asian giants. Brussels could win a close friendship with New Delhi and bolster its Indo Pacific profile, but it might come at a price of drifting further away from Beijing.
An EU tilt toward India puts China into an unenviable position. The EU is a valuable partner, given its significant trade clout and 400 million strong market. Further frictions between Brussels and Beijing could deepen the extant schism between the two parties. At the same time, India might become more intransigent in the China-India relationship if major players take its side.
India has a lot to gain from a close friendship with the EU, such as an important trade partner, a companion in connectivity projects and the further diversification of strategic partnerships. Nevertheless, the EU’s friendship will not come without expectations, such as improvement of the human rights situation and more ambitious climate commitments from New Delhi.
If these trends persist, we could be witnessing transformative changes in the international system. With the EU entering the game, the Indo-Pacific is about to host a fledgling strategic actor that brings its own digital, inclusive, and green agenda to the area. With the new role however, comes new responsibilities. If Brussels tilts further toward New Delhi and away from Beijing, the Sino-Indian rift could become more pronounced—a bad combination for two neighbouring great powers sharing a disputed border. The negative implications of this trend could be countered by looking for areas of agreement and cooperation between all three parties. Common efforts toward tackling climate change are a prime suspect in this regard. Regardless of the directions of their next steps, the actors must tread carefully. In the intricate web of Indo-Pacific strategic affairs, bilateral actions can go beyond the relationship and shape the behaviour of third players.
Dr. Daniel Balazs is a recent PhD graduate of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), in Singapore. Dr. Xue Gong is an Assistant Professor and Deputy Coordinator of the International Political Economy Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), in Singapore.
The views expressed in the article are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy or the National University of Singapore.
News Reports
Bilateral relations
China changes Western Theatre Commander again
India Today, September 8
This is the fourth time that the Chinese President, who is also the Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), changed the top General since the India-China standoff in Ladakh last year.
China-India border: PLA troops, jets, artillery ‘send warning shot with Tibet drill’
South China Morning Post, September 8
Chinese fighter jets dropped missiles, troops brought down drones and ground force howitzers made precision strikes during a high-altitude drill by the Tibet Military District intended as a warning to India, according to military observers.
Galwan took India-China ties in different direction: EAM
The Times of India, September 7
The Galwan clash last year took the Sino-Indian bilateral ties in a completely different direction, foreign minister S. Jaishankar said on Monday (September 6).
India wants solution to border dispute with China through dialogue, won't allow unilateral action on LAC: Defence Minister
The Economic Times, August 30
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said on Monday (August 30) that India wants a solution to the border dispute with China through dialogue and asserted that the government would never allow the sanctity of borders to be violated.
News Reports
China and India in the Region
India, Australia Deepen Defense, Trade Ties Amid China Tensions
BloombergQuint, September 11
India invited Australia to jointly develop and produce defense equipment and the two nations plan to expand cooperation in military information and logistics, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh told reporters on Saturday (September 11).
Chinese FM Wang Yi starts tour in Southeast Asia to boost ties
Global Times, September 10
Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi commenced week-long official tour in four neighboring countries on Friday (September 10) with the first stop in Vietnam.
Sri Lanka looks to bolster India defence ties amid China threat
The Economic Times, September 6
According to new strategy paper drafted under Sri Lanka's new high commissioner Milinda Moragoda, the island nation is looking to bolster defence and security ties with India amid growing concerns of China's footprint in the region.
US, India okay to cede Kabul to China-Pakistan if terrorism is canned
The Times of India, September 5
The US and India are reconciled to ceding their influence in Afghanistan to China, Pakistan and so long as the territory is not used to foster terrorism.
India, Singapore conduct major naval exercise near South China Sea
The Times of India, September 4
The SIMBEX exercise took place on the southern fringes of the South China Sea from September 2 to 4.
China Opens Rail Line With Access to Indian Ocean via Myanmar
The Irrawaddy, August 30
A new rail line providing China with access to the Indian Ocean via Myanmar was opened on August 25 on the Chinese side of the border.
News Reports
Trade and Economy
BRICS to get China digital push
China Daily, September 7
China will work with its partners to push for the implementation of Strategy for BRICS Economic Partnership 2025, to reinforce intra-platform cooperation, and seize opportunities in emerging fields like digital and green technologies for more growth potential.
Trade between China, India continues to grow, despite cold bilateral ties
Global Times, September 7
Trade between the two countries continues to rise, with the trade from January to August growing 51.9 percent on a yearly basis, according to data released by China's customs on Tuesday (September 7).
Multiplying crackdowns haven't stopped cash pouring into China
The Straits Times, September 4
For all the short-term pain and disruption, there is a belief that President Xi Jinping's campaign for "common prosperity" could help China sustain longer-term expansion.
India becomes third largest startup ecosystem in the world
The Times of India, September 3
Over the last year, India has added three unicorns every month taking the total count to 51.
India fast-tracks trade deals as COVID-19 upends economy
The Straits Times, September 2
Fuelled by the coronavirus pandemic that has upended the economy and concerns of being shut out from global markets, India is fast-tracking negotiations with the the United Arab Emirates, Britain, Australia, Canada and the European Union, said a top official.
News Reports
Energy and Environment
China and India send coal prices soaring amid green-energy push
Nikkei Asia, September 13
The price of thermal coal used to generate electricity is nearing a record high as surging demand in China and India collides with a reluctance to invest in new capacity in a world heading for decarbonization.
Climate change: China should pledge absolute carbon emissions cap until 2025, advisory body headed by vice-premier says
South China Morning Post, September 10
Influential policy research body chaired by Vice-Premier Han Zheng calls on China to improve carbon pricing and create a renewables-based energy system.
Revamped US-India Strategic Clean Energy Partnership launched
Mint, September 10
"The meeting also reviewed the progress on the India-US civil nuclear energy cooperation," petroleum and natural gas ministry said in a late Thursday (September 9) night statement.
China leads as new global offshore wind projects dip slightly in 2020
Reuters, September 9
Global installations of new offshore wind farms fell only slightly in 2020, reaching the second highest tally since a record in 2019 despite the coronavirus pandemic, with China installing the most, an industry report said on Thursday (September 9).
China's Sinopec plans to spend US$4.6b on hydrogen energy by 2025
The Business Times, August 31
Asia's biggest oil refiner said on Monday (August 30) it plans to become China's largest company to produce hydrogen for use as a transportation fuel, targeting annual capacity of 200,000 tonnes of hydrogen refuelling by 2025.
Analyses
China should be vigilant of India becoming de facto ‘sixth eye’
Global Times, September 13
By Lin Minwang, Professor, Institute of International Studies, Fudan University
The recent 2+2 dialogue between India and Australia represents an important step in constructing an "Asian NATO" by the US, Japan, India and Australia.
BRICS could improve China, India ties
China Daily, September 8
By Swaran Singh, Professor and Chairman, Centre for International Politics, Organization and Disarmament, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi
The 13th BRICS summit aims to achieve deliverables across three main pillars: economy and finance; politics and security; and cultural and people-to-people relations.
Pakistan and China are preparing for a Taliban govt they don’t trust. So should India
The Print, September 8
By Shyam Saran, former Indian foreign secretary, currently Senior Fellow, Centre for Policy Research (CPR)
Pakistan’s interest in an influential role for the Haqqani group in a Taliban government is on account of its anti-Indian agenda. India must be prepared.
After Afghanistan setback, can Modi's visit bridge trust deficit between India, US?
Global Times, September 7
By Qian Feng, Director, Research Department, National Strategy Institute, Tsinghua University
Despite highlighting diplomatic independence, New Delhi is leaning heavily toward Washington.
How Beijing’s New Maritime Rules in the South China Sea Will Affect India and Others
The Wire, September 4
By Manoj Joshi, Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi
In a classic manoeuvre of what is called “lawfare”, China announced a new set of maritime regulations last week that require ships carrying certain types of cargo to provide detailed information to the Chinese authorities when transiting through Chinese “territorial waters”.
The strategic signal of an Indian presence in the South China Sea
Observer Research Foundation, September 2
By Harsh V. Pant, Director, Studies and Head of the Strategic Studies Programme at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi
India has wider stakes in South China Sea as nearly 55% of India’s trade with the Indo-Pacific region passes through these waters.
Hope for China-India border dispute: turn off the megaphones, sensibly reduce forces, maintain calm in Tibet
South China Morning Post, August 28
By Kanti Bajpai, Director, Centre on Asia and Globalisation and Wilmar Professor of Asian Studies, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy
Both sides can move along talks by ceasing publicly aired diplomacy; thinning their forces; and ensuring Tibet, or Arunachal Pradesh, does not become a flashpoint.
Books and Journals
The Long Game: How the Chinese Negotiate with India
Penguin Books (2021)
By Vijay Gokhale, former Indian foreign secretary
India’s relations with the People’s Republic of China have captured the popular imagination ever since the 1950s but have rarely merited a detailed understanding of the issues. Individual episodes tend to arouse lively debate, which often dissipates without a deeper exploration of the factors that shaped the outcomes. This book explores the dynamics of negotiation between the two countries, from the early years after Independence until the current times, through the prism of six historical and recent events in the India-China relationship. The purpose is to identify the strategy, tactics and tools that China employs in its diplomatic negotiations with India, and the learnings for India from its past dealings with China that may prove helpful in future negotiations with the country.
Compiled and sent to you by Centre on Asia and Globalisation and the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore.
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