China-India Brief #159

Guest Column

India-China Relations Post-COVID-19

By Jabin T. Jacob    

Photo from Prime Minister's Office of India

The year 2020 marks the 70^th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between India and China. While the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic provides a new backdrop to this milestone in bilateral ties, it does not substantially change the direction in which relations were heading, only the pace.

Bilateral ties have seldom been smooth, even if the default position of the leaderships on both sides has been to portray them as being normal and in reasonable fettle. After the low of the Doklam stand-off in mid-2017, ‘informal’ summits between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping were promoted as a way to put the relationship back on the rails. The Indian government has certainly expended much effort domestically to make it look like the informal summits were some sort of diplomatic breakthrough. Except that problems have cropped up so regularly in the relationship that it fools no one.

Using December 2019—when the novel coronavirus outbreak began in China, but before it was deemed a serious health challenge—as a starting point, India and China conducted the ‘Hand-in-Hand 2019’ counter-terrorism exercise in the Indian state of Meghalaya and the 22^nd meeting of the Special Representatives on the boundary dispute. This was followed by an early January visit to China by the Indian Army’s Northern Command head; but only a couple of days before, the Chinese PLA had also begun a military exercise in Tibet.

While these events might be viewed as being planned months in advance, and while the signalling is well understood and even expected, there were also a series of actions by each side, which are possibly designed to push the envelope, to needle, or to test the other’s limits.

A case in point is the presence of a Chinese research vessel in the Indian EEZ near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, which had to be told to leave by the Indian Navy. This was reported just a few days before the counter-terrorism exercise, with the Indian Navy chief even highlighting the frequency with which Chinese vessels were found in Indian waters. In January, soon after the senior Indian army official had left Beijing, China tried—and failed—for a third time to raise the issue of Kashmir at the UN Security Council on behalf of Pakistan.

Meanwhile, in mid-February, by which time COVID-19 was beginning to make its presence felt globally and China itself was reeling, Beijing both joined other nations at the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) in warning Pakistan about its failure to meet commitments on action against terrorist financing and money laundering, and objected to a visit to Arunachal Pradesh by the Indian Home Minister. The minister was visiting on the occasion of the 33^rd anniversary of the founding of the state.

The spreading epidemic itself occasioned more pique and crossed signals between the two neighbours.

Indian Prime Minister Modi promised China assistance in a written letter to Xi on 8 February. However, it was only on 26 February that the flight—also expected to bring back Indian citizens from Wuhan—landed in Hubei with 15 tonnes of medical equipment. Indian media reports—denied by the Indian foreign ministry—suggested that the Chinese were deliberately delaying India’s evacuation efforts of its citizens.

The Chinese action delaying the evacuation could have been a response to the Indian minister’s visit to the state, but it might also have been because the Indian government had issued advisories on travel to and from China including temporary suspension of e-visas and quarantines for those coming from China after the outbreak of coronavirus there. The Indian foreign ministry called its move necessary “purely to maintain public health” clarifying there was “no ban on travel to China or from China”. The Chinese, however, seemed to have taken the view that the Indian action was a negative comment on China’s handling of the crisis.

Post-COVID, one of the issues that has most animated conversation about China in India is the former’s supply of faulty testing kits and apparent price gouging. The Chinese have tried to explain away the problem and accused the Indians of being “unfair”, “irresponsible” and prejudiced.

Amidst the general testiness in the relationship, there are proposals for India and China to work together to develop a vaccine for COVID-19. This, however, is part of a long legacy of talk about the potential offered by bilateral cooperation in science and technology which has seldom, if ever, led to anything concrete.

One could argue that with the COVID-19 pandemic, China has well and truly moved from just an occasional item of envy, derision, or blame in the Indian imagination to a larger object of serious consideration at the popular level. While jokes about the quality of Chinese products and memes about the “Chinese virus” will continue, the Indian government can expect greater attention especially among India’s middle classes both to long-standing issues like the boundary dispute and the China-Pakistan relationship as well as to newer concerns like Chinese investments in India’s technology space, cyber-attacks, dependence on Chinese-manufactured telecom equipment, the robustness of India’s supply chains and the like.

There may be occasions when the Indian government can take advantage of such attention. An instance of this was the amendment to India’s foreign direct investment (FDI) rules introduced towards the end of April mandating compulsory government approval for investments from neighbouring countries. Clearly, it is China that is the target here. However, on other issues such as a resolution of the boundary dispute or the ability to manoeuvre in international organizations, this public attention could well constrain the Indian government’s options.

Hitherto, it has only been Pakistan that attracted public opinion or reaction of any significance for Indian authorities to consider in their foreign policy decisions. Opinions here have also tended to be in the direction of blame and criticism of that country, which the present ruling dispensation in New Delhi, at least, finds politically convenient for domestic reasons. Ironically, the more successful the Modi government is in conveying the message to its domestic constituency that Pakistan has been put in its place, as it were, the greater attention this might draw to how it is doing with respect to China.

With the COVID-19 pandemic, the name “Wuhan” has become much better known in India than it ever was for the April 2018 informal summit between Modi and Xi in that city. It remains to be seen which of these two legacies from Wuhan will last in India-China relations.

Jabin T. Jacob is Associate Professor, Department of International Relations and Governance Studies, Shiv Nadar University, Uttar Pradesh and Adjunct Research Fellow at the National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi. He can be reached at decb64_amFiaW4uamFjb2JAc251LmVkdS5pbg==_decb64.

The views expressed in the article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy or the National University of Singapore.

News Reports

Bilateral relations

China may have posted 5,000 soldiers across LAC, officials say as tension grows along border
Hindustan Times, May 26

Indian and Chinese soldiers are eyeball-to-eyeball at four locations along the LAC and several rounds of talks between local military commanders have failed to end the standoff.

Wary Beijing looks to evacuate its citizens from in India as COVID-19 spreads
Livemint, May 25

The evacuation comes at a time of high military tensions between India and China with Chinese troops transgressing into Indian territory.

Indian Army dismisses reports claiming detention of its soldiers by Chinese forces
The Times of India, May 24

Indian Army on Sunday strongly rejected media reports which claimed that its soldiers were briefly detained by the Chinese forces in Ladakh.

China seeks India’s support for its new draconian law to crack down on Hong Kong protesters
The Hindu, May 22

China has sought the support and understanding of India and other countries for its controversial decision to impose a new national security law on Hong Kong, saying the new legislation is aimed at containing the “secessionist” forces in the former British colony who have posed a “grave threat” to the country’s national security and sovereignty.

China-India border tension flares up in Galwan Valley, won’t lead to another ‘Doklam standoff’: experts
Global Times, May 18

The latest border friction started by the Indian side won't lead to another "Doklam standoff" according to analysts. India is merely seeking to divert its domestic attention and pressure since the COVID-19 pandemic impacted its economy, and China has a military advantage in the Galwan Valley region.

BJP MPs ‘attend’ Taiwan event, irk China
The Times of India, May 26

Asking India to refrain from interfering in its “internal” affairs, the Chinese have taken umbrage at BJP MPs Meenakshi Lekhi and Rahul Kaswan’s “virtual participation” in the swearing-in ceremony of Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen on Wednesday (May 20).

Indian Army Chief Remark On Nepal And Hint At China Draws Strong Reaction
NDTV, May 25

Last week, Indian Army chief Manoj Mukund Naravane said that Nepal's strident objections to a new road being built in Uttarakhand is “at the behest of someone else”.

Foreign Ministry: China-India border issue has nothing to do with U.S.
CGTN, May 21

Chinese Foreign Ministry Thursday urged India to meet each other halfway on the border issue and stressed that it has nothing to do with the U.S.

US warns India of China 'aggression' at border, likens situation to South China Sea
The Straits Times, May 21

The United States on Wednesday (May 20) accused China of employing border clashes with India to try to shift the status quo, and encouraged New Delhi to resist.

Eye on China, India backs 62-nation coalition’s push for probe into Covid-19 origin
Hindustan Times, May 18

India has supported a 62-nation coalition led by the European Union and Australia to seek an independent investigation into the coronavirus outbreak at the WHO’s annual World Health Assembly (WHA) meet.

After China, India reaches out to LAC, African countries with medicine diplomacy
The Times of India, May 16

India is looking to provide grant assistance to 52 more countries spread mainly across Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) and also Africa.

India opposes Pakistan-China move to build major dam in Gilgit-Baltistan
Hindustan Times, May 14

The Pakistan government on Wednesday signed a Rs 442-billion contract with a joint venture formed by China Power and the Frontier Works Organisation (FWO), a commercial arm of the Pakistani military, for constructing the Diamer-Bhasha dam.

China, India, and the US Could Lose Up to 40 Million Tourism Jobs
The Financial, May 24

The coronavirus pandemic could cause China, India, and the United States to lose almost 40 million jobs according to data gathered by LearnBonds.

India plans scrutiny of new portfolio investors from China, Hong Kong: sources
Reuters, May 22

India has drafted rules proposing tighter scrutiny of new Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) from China and Hong Kong, three government sources told Reuters, its latest effort to check foreign inflows during the coronavirus pandemic.

After China, India is now the second largest producer of PPE coveralls during the COVID-19 pandemic
Firstpost, May 22

India has become the world's second-largest manufacturer of personal protective equipment (PPE) body coveralls within a short time span of two months, the government said on Thursday (May 21).

AIIB, PBoC among 16 China-based entities registered as FPI in India
The Economic Times, May 22

At least 16 China-based institutions, including Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and People's Bank of China (PBoC), have got permanent registration as foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) in India.

India opposes rejoining RCEP over China concerns
The Hindu, May 16

As the deadline for a response to a fresh proposal of India rejoining negotiations on the ASEAN-led trade Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) ran out on Friday (May 15), a senior Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) official indicated that global post Coronavirus concerns over China had strengthened India’s opposition to the grouping.

India is Making Consistent & Measurable Progress in Energy Transition Since 6 Years: WEF
Mercom India, May 23

The report showed 94 of the 115 countries included in the study had improved their energy transition index score in the last six years.

Unlike China, India oil demand stays weak as economy falters
The Business Times, May 21

It's going to take months for oil demand in the world's third biggest market to get back to pre-virus levels as India faces its deepest recession ever in the wake of its near two-month lockdown.

US overtakes China as most attractive country for renewables investment; India slips to 7th spot: EY report
Firstpost, May 19

The United States has overtaken China as the most attractive country in the world for renewables investment and the global clean energy sector is expected to bounce back quickly despite the coronavirus pandemic, research showed on Tuesday (May 19).

India's coronavirus infections surpass China, but contagion slowing
Channel News Asia, May 16

India's total novel corornavirus cases rose to 85,940 on Saturday (May 16), taking it past China, where the pandemic originated last year, though a strict lockdown enforced since late March has reduced the rate of contagion.

The Ladakh warning
The Indian Express, May 26

By P. Stobdan, Former Indian Ambassador

As China intrudes across LAC, India must be alert to larger strategic shift, a lasting imprint on geopolitics.

India should eschew Western views of China for border peace
Global Times, May 25

By Long Xingchun, Senior Research Fellow, Academy of Regional and Global Governance, Beijing Foreign Studies University and President of Chengdu Institute of World Affairs

India in recent days has illegally constructed defense facilities across the border into Chinese territory in the Galwan Valley region, leaving Chinese border defense troops no other options but making necessary moves in response, and mounting the risk of escalating standoffs and conflicts between the two sides.

Why We Should Worry About China and India’s Border Skirmishes
Foreign Policy, May 23

By Sumit Ganguly, Rabindranath Tagore Professor and Political Science Distinguished Professor at Indiana University Bloomington; and Manjeet S. Pardesi, Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies, Victoria University of Wellington

Three decades ago, the two countries reached an understanding not to fight. But Beijing is now a much stronger power.

The Taiwan question in Indian foreign policy
ORF Raisina Debates, May 16

By Harsh V. Pant, Director, Studies and Head of the Strategic Studies Programme, ORF; and Premesha Saha, Associate Fellow, Strategic Studies Programme, ORF

Taiwan’s successful handling of the pandemic has led it to draw support from some major global players and some are even recalibrating their Taiwan policy.

Fistfighting in the Himalayas: India and China Go Another Round
The Heritage Foundation, May 15

By Jeff M. Smith, Research Fellow, Heritage Foundation.

Just as the U.S. looks to India to play a more active role in balancing China’s growing power and influence—including taking more forward-leaning positions on issues like the South China Sea and Taiwan, the Quad, and the Indo-Pacific—India is looking to the U.S. to help shore up its own vulnerabilities vis-à-vis China, not least at the disputed border.

Doklam and beyond: revisiting the India-China territorial disputes: an international law perspective
India Review 19, no. 1 (2020)

By K. D. Raju, Associate Professor, Rajiv Gandhi School of Intellectual Property Law (RGSOIPL), Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur

Sovereignty over territory is the founding principle of international legal order and essential for the implementation of the sovereign rights of a State. Territorial disputes become commonplace among countries, mainly when bilateral agreements do not explicitly demarcate them. India and China are two Asian giants when it comes to population and economy. The recent cross-border tension between India and China has at its vortex the issue of the Doklam plateau region which shares borders with three countries namely India, Bhutan, and China and is popularly known as the “Tri-Junction.”

The present article re-visits the history of the Indo-China border dispute and tries to explain the legal aspects of border disputes under international law. It closely analyzes the principles applicable to these disputes and the decisions of various international institutions that are relevant. Furthermore, the article examines bilateral agreements to understand the possible violations and consequences under international law. It is argued that the peaceful co-existence between India and China must be of paramount importance to ensure Asian security and well-being.