China-India Brief #156

Guest Column

Pandemic and Geopolitics: China and India’s response to COVID-19

By Byron Chong    

Photo by Studio Incendo from flickr.com

With millions living under quarantine and global economic activity grinding to a halt, the COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as the greatest public health catastrophe of our generation. Yet, while world leaders struggle to face this unprecedented crisis, there has been a glaring lack of global leadership to direct and coordinate the international response. The United States (US), which has traditionally filled this role, has spoken very little about international cooperation to halt its spread, seemingly more interested in engaging in a blame game with Beijing. And instead of providing aid to others, the Trump administration has been soliciting it, quietly flying in half a million diagnostic swabs from Italy and pressuring South Korea for test kits. With US leadership virtually absent, two Asian powers—India and China—have stepped forward to fill the void.

Last month, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi revived the long dormant South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) to discuss a regional strategy to confront the virus. Consisting of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and India, the grouping had long been ignored by New Delhi due to recurring friction with Pakistan. Yet, during the SAARC videoconference on March 15, India seemed to have temporarily placed these issues aside as it called for the formation of a rapid response team of medical personnel, as well as providing an initial $10 million contribution for a new coronavirus emergency fund.

Since the videoconference, India has extended much-needed medical aid to its SAARC partners, such as medical teams to the Maldives and Nepal, supplies and equipment to Bhutan, and assured support to the Seychelles, Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Outside of South Asia, India has also extended aid to Israel, Italy, and Serbia, and is considering aid requests from Iran. In addition, Modi has  sought to replicate the SAARC event on more global scale, pitching the idea for a similar videoconference to the G-20 leadership, which subsequently took place on March 26.

While New Delhi’s push for a more coordinated global approach makes sense given the rapid spread of the pandemic, the move is also a reflection of India’s desire to assert its importance to the world. By taking an active role in spearheading not just a regional, but also global response, India is demonstrating that it is a rising power to be taken seriously. Modi hopes to project an image of India as a responsible and benevolent provider of public goods with the capacity to lead global collaborative efforts.

Such outreach efforts may also be an attempt to improve the Modi government’s image abroad. India’s global standing has taken a beating in recent months following a series of controversial policy decisions, including the withdrawal of Indian-administered Kashmir’s autonomy, the introduction of a new citizenship law that has been viewed as marginalising Muslims, and riots in the streets of the nation’s capital. These policy moves and developments have garnered negative press coverage around the world, and New Delhi is eager to recoup some international goodwill.

India’s outreach efforts, however, have been vastly overshadowed by China. Though it was the first country to be affected, Beijing has since brought the virus under control at home and is now prominently leading international efforts to combat the global pandemic. Chinese government agencies, private companies, and charities have delivered medical equipment in the form of millions of face masks, test kits and artificial respiratory devices to over 120 countries in Asia, Europe, Africa, North America, and Latin America as well as dispatched teams of doctors and medical staff to the most virus-stricken parts of the world.

In hard-hit places like Italy, China has gained an almost saviour-like status for providing aid at a time when the country’s closest neighbours seemingly deserted it. Rome’s pleas for help to the European Union went unanswered as countries like France and Germany swiftly closed their borders and imposed a ban on the export of masks. The Czech Republic even confiscated a shipment of face masks bound for Italy.

Besides material aid, Beijing has also embarked on a concerted diplomatic campaign, convening with officials from different countries by teleconference to share information about the pandemic and lessons from China’s own battle with the virus. These efforts have largely been conducted through regional bodies such as the “17+1” mechanism with European states, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as well as many others.

For China, this unprecedented public outreach is part of a wider effort to change the narrative of the pandemic and regain some of its lost international standing. By casting itself as a beacon of hope and saviour to hard-hit countries, China hopes to disassociate itself from the source of the virus and avoid responsibility for its early cover-ups which allowed the pandemic to take hold. Moreover, it is also a means to improve Beijing’s image abroad, particularly in parts of the world where its infrastructure projects have become synonymous with corruption and unsustainable debt.

Perhaps most importantly, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) desperately needs to repair its domestic reputational damage. Beijing has faced online fury for botching the initial response to the outbreak, particularly after the death of the young whistleblower doctor Li Wenliang. Criticism has also been levelled at President Xi Jinping for his prolonged absence from public view and failure to visit Wuhan during the height of the pandemic. The state propaganda machine has sought to mitigate this growing backlash, producing a steady stream of propaganda articles and public messages touting China’s success in combating the virus and lauding Xi’s role in directing containment efforts. As part of this media blitz, China’s aid deliveries abroad have been covered extensively, with images of Chinese equipment and doctors arriving in places like Rome and Belgrade disseminated across social media and videos of grateful citizens expressing their gratitude to China relayed over state television. Besides distracting the Chinese public from criticizing the government’s earlier missteps, such forms of reporting also sends a powerful message that reinforces the CCP’s political legitimacy—China’s state-led governance model has successfully managed the pandemic, unlike the weak, dysfunctional democratic systems which now need to be rescued.

Between India and China, the latter undoubtedly occupies a much stronger position to engage in such diplomatic outreach. Beijing simply has more financial and material resources to throw around. Moreover, it possesses a distinct manufacturing edge, being one of the world's leading producers of surgical masks, respirators, and pharmaceutical ingredients even before the pandemic. It has also demonstrated an unmatched ability to mobilise its domestic industrial resources, accelerating the country-wide production of face masks from 20 million a day to 116 million, and famously constructing a hospital in ten days. Most importantly, cases in China have been steadily plateauing, giving it the capacity to export equipment and expertise to virus-stricken countries. India, on the other hand, possesses none of China’s material and production advantages; and the fast-rising infection rate in the country means that New Delhi will soon be too preoccupied with containing the pandemic at home to focus on extending aid overseas or coordinating any international response.

Yet, despite its many advantages, China’s bid for global leadership is not necessarily assured. For one, Beijing has made some unforced errors in its battle for global ‘hearts and minds’. Not all of China’s deliveries were genuine aid donations without strings—some were actually commercial purchases that served to help restart Chinese factories. This has already led to criticisms of Chinese companies profiteering off the coronavirus. To make matters worse, several countries have publicly complained about the quality of purchased Chinese equipment. Spain recently returned a batch of Chinese-manufactured coronavirus test kits after they discovered it had a detection rate of just 30%. The Netherlands had to recall over 600,000 face masks bought from China as they either had defective filters or did not fit the face properly. Slovak Prime Minister Igor Matovic also complained about receiving faulty test kits from China, suggesting they should “just be thrown into the Danube [river]”.

China’s attempts to shift the global narrative and frame itself as the hero is also unlikely to succeed. While its generosity has certainly earned the gratitude of some countries, the international community is unlikely to forget that it was Beijing’s deliberate cover-up that allowed the outbreak to spread worldwide. In fact, China’s efforts to deflect blame for the pandemic, such as convincing national leaders not to use the “Chinese virus” label, spreading conspiracy theories about the origins of the virus, and expelling American journalists will likely have the opposite effect, and only further damage its pretensions to global leadership.

Most significantly, America’s enduring influence will remain the biggest obstacle facing China. Worldwide faith in US competence has undoubtedly suffered, given how Washington has so spectacularly bungled its domestic and international response to the crisis. Yet, this blow to its international standing is likely to be temporary. The US, though weakened, maintains a significant long-term advantage over China, by virtue of its economic and military strength, as well as growing self-sufficiency in energy. These factors, coupled with China’s own shortcomings as a viable alternative global leader, means that most countries will continue to look to the US for leadership.

Byron Chong is a Research Associate at the Centre on Asia and Globalisation (CAG). He holds a Masters in Strategic Studies from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. His research interests include China-India relations and international security.

The views expressed in the article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy or the National University of Singapore.

News Reports

Bilateral relations

China derails India's plans of mass rapid tests
Business Today, April 13

India's plans of mass screening of COVID-19 infected patients will get further delayed as China has made it mandatory to get a clearance from the National Medical Product Administration (NMPA) before exporting testing kits to other countries.

India rejects China's reference to J&K in UN
Livemint, April 9

India on Thursday (April 9) slammed China for stating that its Kashmir dispute with Pakistan was historical one and that it remained high on the UN Security Council agenda.

India, China can cooperate in developing COVID-19 vaccine: Indian envoy
Business Standard, April 8

India and China should pool in their scientific and technological resources to develop a vaccine to contain the deadly novel coronavirus, Indian Ambassador to China Vikram Misri has said.

China donates 170,000 PPE kits to India to help fight Covid-19
Hindustan Times, April 7

China donated 170,000 personal protection equipment (PPE) kits to India on Monday (April 6) to help the neighbouring country fight the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) outbreak, the health ministry said.

Xi says China-India relations at new starting point
Xinhua, April 1

With joint efforts of both sides, the two countries have established a strategic and cooperative partnership for peace and prosperity, and are endeavouring to build an even closer partnership of development, said Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Into Africa: India vies with China for post-pandemic clout
Nikkei Asian Review, April 14

India and China appear to have found a new arena in which to compete for global power and influence: Humanitarian aid for Africa.

Pakistan summons Indian official to protest at cross-border shelling
The Straits Times, April 13

Pakistan on Monday (April 13) summoned an Indian official to protest over cross-border shelling from its neighbour that it said had killed a child and wounded four civilians.

India eases malaria drug export ban after Trump threat
Channel News Asia, April 7

India announced on Tuesday (April 7) a partial lifting of a fresh export ban on a malaria drug seen as a potential COVID-19 treatment, after US President Donald Trump hinted at “retaliation”.

India-US partnership to fight Covid-19, says PM Modi after call with Trump
Hindustan Times, April 4

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday had a telephone conversation with US president Donald Trump on the Covid-19 pandemic threatening countries all over the world. The two leaders agreed to put the full weight of the India-US partnership to fight the deadly Covid-19 disease.

'India's offer of South Asian response to COVID-19 counter to China's attempts to change narrative'
The Economic Times, April 4

Aparna Pande, Director of the India Initiative at the Hudson Institute, made the remarks on Friday (April 3) during an online discussion on China's attempts to change the narrative on COVID-19 and how countries in the world are responding to the major health crisis.

India to Boost Drug Ingredient Output to Pare China Reliance
Bloomberg Quint, April 14

India plans to ramp up production of pharmaceutical ingredients and become an alternative supplier for global drugmakers hit by factory shutdowns in China due to the coronavirus outbreak.

South Asia on course for worst economic slump in 40 years, World Bank says
South China Morning Post, April 12

Widespread lockdowns in India and other regional economies freeze most normal activity. Report warns entire region would experience an economic contraction this year.

Asian multilateral bank lends US$355 million to Chinese public health projects
South China Morning Post, April 6

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank lends Chinese cities of Beijing and Chongqing funds to upgrade local public health facilities. AIIB lending for health care projects a departure from previous concentration on traditional infrastructure spending.

India, China trade declines over 12 per cent in first two months of 2020
The New Indian Express, April 3

The trade between China and India fell 12.4 per cent year-on-year to USD 12 billion in the first two months amid the coronavirus outbreak, according to the latest data from Chinese customs.

China’s Energy Imports Weaken as Virus Exacts Toll on Demand
Bloomberg, April 14

Crude imports fall to lowest since July amid high stockpiles. LNG buying to pick up as small utilities cash in on low prices.

New Draft Law Puts Clean Power at the Forefront of China’s Energy Policy
Caixin Global, April 13

China has released a draft energy law that prioritizes the use of renewable power sources and aims to set future targets for both its production and its share of the country’s overall energy mix.

Covid-19 Lockdown: India Moves To Ensure Renewable Projects Remain Unaffected
Clean Technica, April 12

As India struggles with the Covid-19 outbreak and the resulting 21-day lockdown, the government has taken measures to insulate the renewable energy sector as much as possible.

India will remain the engine of world energy demand growth: Dharmendra Pradhan
Deccan Herald, April 10

Speaking at the extraordinary meeting of energy ministers of G20 nations, Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan asserted that India will remain the engine of world energy demand growth.

India to Buy Up Middle Eastern Oil for Strategic Reserves
Bloomberg, April 8

India, the world’s third biggest oil consumer, is set to snap up millions of barrels of Middle East crude for its strategic reserves, signalling its support for global efforts to rescue the energy market.

The Chinese military is busy exploiting the pandemic
Observer Research Foundation, April 14

By Harsh V. Pant, Director, Studies and Head of the Strategic Studies Programme, ORF; and Kartik Bommakanti, Associate Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme, ORF

With hundreds of thousands of migrant workers returning from Iran, Afghanistan’s poor healthcare facilities, the prevalence of diabetes, as well as widespread food insecurity, make the country highly vulnerable to coronavirus.

How the United States Should Deal With China in Pakistan
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 8

By Daniel Markey, Adjunct Senior Fellow of the Academy of Regional and Global Governance, Beijing Foreign Studies University

Washington needs to keep one eye on the prize of regional stability, especially in the context of deepening hostility between India and Pakistan, and the other eye on the longer-term geopolitical challenges posed by China’s increased involvement throughout the region.

Why China has changed tune on ties with India: Statesman contributor
The Straits Times, April 8

By Harsha Kakar, Retired Major-General of the Indian Army

In the current environment, China is desperate for allies especially when the global backlash starts, which will happen soon.

Looking east to contain COVID-19
The Hindu, April 3

By Sourabh Gupta, Senior Fellow at the Institute for China-America Studies in Washington, D.C.

The strategies employed by S. Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and China are instructive for India.

How Is COVID-19 Reshaping China-India Relations?
The Diplomat, April 2

By Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Distinguished Fellow and Head of the Nuclear and Space Policy Initiative at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF)

The global pandemic has hit amid the 70th anniversary mark for relations and affected perceptions and realities in ties.

Between engagement and counter-hedging: China’s India strategy
Maritime Affairs: Journal of the National Maritime Foundation of India 15(2): 31–43

By Mao Jikang, Research Fellow in Energy Research Institute of China's State Grid Corporation; and Li Mingjiang, Associate Professor at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore

From China's perspective, border disputes, India's strategic cooperation with other major powers and security competition between China and India in IOR are the main factors shaping Sino-India relations. China believes that border disputes is difficult to resolve but largely manageable, India is wary of joining forces with US and other major powers to contain China, and the two countries can still seek coexistence in IOR even though India is concerned about China's growing influence in this region. China is implementing a counter-hedging strategy towards India that features active engagement with India on one hand and a certain level of security pressures on India on the other hand. To prevent these three problems from becoming more serious and exacerbating the Sino-Indian contradiction, China find it necessary to pay more attention on engagement with India and come up with more diplomatic resources and policy inputs in handling the bilateral relations.