China-India Brief #145

Guest Column

Political Leadership and China-India Rapprochement since 2018

By Xie Chao    

Photo from Prime Minister's Office of India

In our era of strongman politics, leadership interactions can play a larger role in foreign relations than before. In the first half of 2018, the leaders of China and India met on several occasions, in a clear attempt to calm tensions in the aftermath of the Doklam (Donglang) standoff and ‘reset’ bilateral ties. Their interactions coincided with growing structural changes in the international system caused by the new surge of American unilateralism under US President Trump. These developments have revived long-standing questions: Can political leaders help to moderate the fluctuations in bilateral relations? Or, are such fluctuations largely the result of structural factors beyond the control of political actors?

There is an established Quantitative Measure Project on China’s Relations with Major Powers, at the Institute of International Relations in Tsinghua University. The project gathers and measures major events between China and seven other major powers since 1950. The scores of these bilateral relations are given and updated on a monthly basis. Figure 1 below gives the scores on China-India relations since 2017.


Figure 1: Scores of China-India Relations since 2017

The figure shows that while China-India relations hit consecutive lows during the Doklam standoff, the lowest score during this period actually occurred in February 2018 – six months after both sides had disengaged from the area. On the 15^th of that month, PM Modi had paid a visit to Arunachal Pradesh – a region over which China has claimed sovereignty. The visit, coupled with Beijing’s formal protest, resulted in strong nationalist sentiments in both countries and strained bilateral relations. Subsequently in March 2018, the scores improved slightly after both governments displayed a willingness to engage and show greater flexibility in their bilateral relations.

As the global environment becomes increasingly turbulent and uncertain, rising powers such as China and India are beginning to feel the structural pressure of these new developments. In March 2018, President Trump imposed extra steel and aluminum tariffs, reasserting American dominance through unilateral and protective tariffs. While China was clearly his main target, India has been targeted as well.

To some observers, the trade disputes between the US and India are part of Washington’s strategy to delink economic relations from strategic cooperation with New Delhi and to press India to open its market to American companies. This has effectively created a gap in expectations between both sides. For some time, PM Modi has made India-US relations a priority of his foreign policy agenda. This has paid off in the strategic sphere as India has been welcomed by the US “as a leading global power and stronger strategic and defence partner” and later as a “Major Defence Partner.” But the deepened strategic relations with the US could not save India from trade bullying.

Leaders can respond to structural pressure in different ways, such as accommodating the hegemon’s demands or fighting back to protect their interests. The leaders of China and India both chose the tougher road of fighting back. Under PM Modi’s leadership, India has insisted on pursuing economic reforms at its own pace and prioritized the interests of its domestic stakeholders in this process. Any attempts at forcing India to accommodate foreign requests has been seen as challenging its strategic autonomy and been met with resistance by Indian elites and strategists.

Being caught in similar predicament, China and India could join hands to push back against this structural pressure together. However, given bilateral tensions in the aftermath of Doklam, strong political will was needed to break the ice. In April 2018, President Xi and PM Modi met in Wuhan. While there was no joint press conference, nor a joint statement on their discussions, the informal summit proved to be a useful platform for both sides to communicate their differences, and it opened the possibility of more positive interactions. Indeed, as reflected in Figure 1, the bilateral relation scores have been on a gradual upward trend.

After Wuhan, President Xi and PM Modi met three more times on the sidelines of various international summits: in June 2018 during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao; in July 2018 during the BRICS summit in Johannesburg; and in December 2018 during the G20 summit in Buenos Aires. These meetings gave both sides opportunities to deepen strategic communication and cultivate leader-to-leader chemistry. This can be seen in how both have sought to downplay their mutual differences and manage each other’s concerns.

On at least two occasions, the Indian government responded to and rejected media speculation that the status at the face-off site in Doklam, after the pullback from the 2017 confrontation, had changed. During his keynote speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue 2018, PM Modi denied international speculation that India was using the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (or Quad) to contain China and asserted that the ‘Indo-Pacific’ concept was not a strategy nor “a club of limited members.” Such remarks showed India’s change in perception regarding competition in the region.

Unlike the US’s delinking policy with India, both China and India have been keen to de-link border disputes from more general relations, so as to inject stability into bilateral and multilateral cooperation frameworks, such as working on new international institutions, preserving and promoting norms on multilateralism rather than unilateralism, and engaging in new “China-India plus” diplomatic initiatives to facilitate bilateral cooperation in a third country.

Another observation from Figure 1 is that there has been little to no change in scores since early 2019. This new trend can be interpreted in one of two ways. The first is that progress in bilateral ties are slowing and the relationship may be beginning to stagnate. A second, more optimistic view is that China-India relations are showing signs of stabilising, and moving forward in a ‘slow and steady’ manner. How this trend can be interpreted depends on how much effort both sides have invested in overcoming their differences and managing their potential impacts.

In May 2019, China announced that it had no further objection to listing Masood Azhar in the United Nations blacklist under the 1267 Committee. Beijing’s announcement was made during the general elections in India and despite the fact that it might be seen as helping the ruling coalition’s election campaign, thus indicating Chinese satisfaction with what PM Modi and his government had done in controlling bilateral differences.

After the Modi-led BJP won their landslide election victory earlier this year, one of its major policy initiatives was to abolish Article 370 that deals with the status of India-controlled Kashmir. In abolishing 370, it also established a new Union Territory in Ladakh – a part of this territory is claimed by China. The Chinese government expressed its firm opposition to such a unilateral move. Within days, however, the Indian External Affairs Minister explained Delhi’s position during an official visit to Beijing, stating that “[t]here was no implication for either the external boundaries of India or the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China. India was not raising any additional territorial claims."

It can be regarded a positive sign that both sides were willing to communicate their differences over Article 370, and the subsequent 2nd meeting of the High Level Mechanism on Cultural and People-to-People Exchanges went on as scheduled. The interactions at this round reflected both leaders’ determination to manage and prevent the Kashmir issue from escalating into a dispute. Chinese reaction on the matter was generally restrained, and the Indian decision to clearly explain its position was appreciated as a gesture of good-will.

The scoring trend in Figure 1 shows that the rapprochement curve since March 2018 is still in good shape. With the second informal summit in October on track, more positive developments can be expected. Hence, a prediction is that both sides will continue to manage their differences. China-India relations will pick up, slowly but steadily. A possible scenario ahead is that the structural pressure will remain an intervening factor but both leaders will continue to write their own history by making their own political choices on contentious and cooperative issues.

XIE Chao is Assistant Professor at the Institute for International and Area Studies (IIAS), Tsinghua University, Beijing. He is also a Visiting Faculty Scholar (2018-2020), at Jindal School of International Affairs (JSIA), O.P. Jindal Global University, Haryana. 

The views expressed in the article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy or the National University of Singapore.

News Reports

Bilateral relations

China-India relations bear global significance: Chinese envoy
Xinhua, September 28

As the only two developing countries with a population of more than 1 billion, China and India see their relations extend beyond bilateral scope to acquire global significance, Chinese Ambassador to India Sun Weidong said Thursday (September 26).

India slams China for Kashmir comment at UN, takes jibe at PoK road project
Hindustan Times, September 28

India on Saturday (September 28) pointed to the “illegal so-called China Pakistan Economic Corridor in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir” to criticise China’s reference to Jammu and Kashmir at the United Nations.

Strengthened communication with India benefits both countries, world: Chinese FM
Xinhua, September 25

Chinese State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Wednesday that strengthened communication with India benefits the two countries as well as the world at large.

China ‘misread’ India’s action to nullify Article 370: Jaishankar
The Times of India, September 25

China had “misread” India’s step to revoke Article 370 of Indian Constitution, said external affairs minister S. Jaishankar, adding that reorganisation of Jammu and Kashmir will have no impact of China.

News Reports

China and India in the Region

China trying to turn non-disputed waters into disputed waters into disputed waters: Vietnam
The Times of India, September 30

Speaking exclusively to TOI, Vietnam’s ambassador, Pham Sanh Chau said China is trying to “transform non-disputed waters into disputed waters”.

China will never seek hegemony or expansion as it develops: White Paper
The Straits Times, September 27

China will never pursue hegemony or expansion, nor will it seek to create spheres of influence, no matter how the international situation changes and how China develops itself, said a White Paper issued by the State Council Information Office on Friday (Sept 27).

India-South Korea defence partnership worries China
The Economic Times, September 27

China has stated that it is vigilant to growing India-S Korea defence cooperation and expressed concern that this partnership could be a threat to the country’s periphery.

China says Maldives is not 'mired in a Chinese debt trap'
Reuters, September 21

The Maldives are not “mired in a Chinese debt trap”, the Chinese government’s top diplomat told the visiting Maldivian foreign minister, amid fears in the Indian Ocean country of debts as high as $3 billion owing to Beijing.

News Reports

Trade and Economy

India may cut duties on 80% of Chinese imports under RCEP
The Economic Times, September 28

India may cut or eliminate tariffs on 80% of products imported from China under a 16-country free trade agreement, the last round of negotiations for which is underway in Vietnam.

China joins India and Indonesia in Asian 'pump priming
Nikkei Asian Review, September 20

China trimmed a key bank lending rate on Friday (September 20), in the latest move by an Asian government to combat flagging growth and the economic drag of the U.S.-China trade war.

Taiwanese businesses look to India as alternative to China
Reuters, September 20

Taiwan is pitching India as a potential business destination to its tech, auto, renewable energy and farm sector firms as the United States’ trade war with China has pushed its companies to look for newer markets, two officials said on Friday (September 20).

News Reports

Energy and Environment

PM Modi rues India's omission from nuclear group in China swipe
The Straits Times, September 26

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi tempered hopes that the third-largest emitter of carbon dioxide will move quickly to reduce the use of coal, in part blaming the country's exclusion from a global uranium suppliers group.

Climate change may cause water scarcity for India's power plants: Study
Money Control, September 23

The study, published in the journal Energy and Environment Science, found that existing and planned power plants that burn coal for energy could be vulnerable.

At U.N. Climate Summit, Few Commitments and U.S. Silence
The New York Times, September 23

The United Nations Climate Action Summit on Monday was meant to highlight concrete promises by presidents, prime ministers and corporate executives to wean the global economy from fossil fuels to avoid the worst effects of global warming.

India to leverage its Strategic Energy Partnership with US
Livemint, September 21

India and US plan to further strengthen their Strategic Energy Partnership that was launched in New Delhi in April last year. This may include larger energy imports from the US by the world’s third-largest oil importer’ state run firms such as Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. (IOCL).

Analyses

China, India, Pakistan: who’s really pulling the strings in Jammu and Kashmir?
South China Morning Post, September 29

By Brahma Chellaney, New Delhi-based geostrategist and the author of nine books

The media spotlight on India-Pakistan tensions over the disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) has helped obscure the role of a key third party, China, which occupies one-fifth of this Himalayan region. Kashmir is only a small slice of J&K, whose control is split among China, India and Pakistan.

No need to overreact as Quad ups gear
Global Times, September 29

By Zhao Minghao, Senior Research Fellow, Charhar Institute; and Adjunct Fellow, Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China

Since its revival in November 2017, the Quad had met only at the joint-secretary level. This first foreign-minister-level meeting may suggest that the framework is upgrading. Speculation is swirling on whether it would move toward a NATO-like group in Asia.

Diplomacy: Modi goes for bold
Deccan Herald, September 28

By Harsh V. Pant, Director, Studies, at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi and Professor of International Relations, King’s College, London

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US was a significant initiative in reaching out to US President Donald Trump after months of negative headlines on the state of bilateral relations. During his visit, Modi managed to court Trump effectively so as to mellow down his criticism on trade even as he stood his ground on Kashmir.

China and India must step up on climate change
The Washington Post, September 22

By John F. Kerry, US Secretary of State from 2013 to 2017; currently Visiting Distinguished Statesman at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a leader of the World War Zero initiative.

In recent joint statements with France, both India and China indicated they would update their national climate commitments “in a manner representing a progression beyond the current one and reflecting their highest possible ambition.” They also announced they would submit strategies next year for the essential task of cutting emissions over the long-term, also called for under the Paris Agreement.

Books and Journals

Locating the Mutual Logistics Support Agreement in India-Australia Strategic Relations
ORF Issue Brief 316 (September 2019)

By Harsh V. Pant, Director, Studies and Head of the Strategic Studies Programme at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi; and Niranjan Chandrashekhar Oak, Research Scholar at the Centre for Indo-Pacific Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

As the Indo-Pacific region becomes an arena of strategic contestations, India and Australia's interests are converging. Two large maritime states from two different continents, India and Australia were mutually indifferent for a long time. Today, however, their relationship is on the upbeat: not only is their bilateral trade on the rise, but they also have common concerns to balance an assertive China and uphold order in the region. By year-end, India and Australia are expected to conclude negotiations for a Mutual Logistics Support Agreement (MLSA). This brief locates the MLSA in the growing bilateral relationship, analyses the points of convergence between the two countries, and examines the most crucial obstacles in the way.