Flooding is the most frequent and damaging natural hazard globally. While hazard analysis focuses on understanding the processes and frequency of flooding events, probabilistic risk analysis is used to quantify consequences of these events. Especially in the context of a changing climate, this shift from hazard-centred to risk-centred analysis is important to support flood-resilient communities. This talk showcases the benefits of probabilistic risk analysis for promoting nature-based flood risk reduction interventions. Through a case-study of riverine flooding, we demonstrate that relative small impacts of natural ecosystem change on peak river discharge can lead to significantly amplified consequences when propagated through the risk analysis chain. By providing metrics of risk, the modelling framework enables nature-based solutions to be easily incorporated into standard urban infrastructure planning, cost-benefit analysis of design alternatives, insurance products for risk mitigation and investment plans by development banks and other stakeholders. I will also discuss applications in other projects, including risks from sea level rise and extreme events.