Apr 24, 2024
Intro: Indonesian voters in Southeast Asia’s largest democracy elected the ticket of former military general Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka in February 2024, but not without controversy. Gibran is the son of outgoing President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, who is accused of manipulating the courts to allow Gibran to run despite being below the constitutional minimum age.
There are even charges of vote rigging that are being handled by Indonesia’s Election Supervisory Agency or Bawaslu and The General Elections Commission known as KPU.
Associate Professor Suzaina Kadir is Vice Dean of Academic Affairs at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and an expert on politics in Southeast Asia.
As an avid Indonesia watcher, we wanted to get her take on what the upcoming administration means for Indonesia domestically, regionally and globally.
David: Do you have trouble keeping up with all the current events that are happening?
Suzaina Kadir: I'm used to it because I've lived looking at Indonesia for so long, Indonesia never fails to surprise us. And I guess the trend continues.
David: Speaking of surprises just in general, the election of Prabowo and Gibran, did you find that surprising in any way?
Suzaina Kadir: Yes and no. I think maybe about up until about maybe two weeks before everybody went to the polls, I was thinking it might end up being a relatively close call between two sets of candidates, Prabowo and Gibran as well as Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin. It was interesting for me to see Anies Baswedan come back with what appeared to be a strong campaign at that time and seemed to be catching up at least in the initial surveys that they were having. So at that time I thought it may actually be a close call. I did not think that Anies at the end of it would be able to win, but I did not expect the gap that you would see between Prabowo-Gibran and the rest to be as large as what we ultimately saw.
So this was the part that was slightly surprising. Having said that, a few days before everybody went to the polls, I happened to be in Jakarta at that time when the different candidates were having their final rallies. I did not go to the rally. But to have witnessed the crowds and the level of excitement, I think at that time around Prabowo and Gibran, it occurred to me actually that there was a very strong chance that Prabowo and Gibran would win and potentially win big.
Many of the people that were flowing into the rallies were very young. Young professionals, I suppose the millennials. And you could see actually that a big part of the campaign was reaching out to them and there was clear excitement, particularly among the millennials in terms of Prabowo and Gibran's campaign.
David: Okay, and now that they have won what do you think the significance of that is?
Suzaina Kadir; I think it tells us about one, the very successful campaign that they undertook. I think they were spot on in terms of how much and to which target they were reaching out.
And of course it's a reflection of the investment in putting together a very solid campaign reaching out to the younger generation using really very popular people in that it reflects the positioning of Gibran. Gibran's entry into the presidential bid came out much later.
And he remains at the centre of the controversy, right? The point that's being raised by both the two other sets of candidates that there's something very suspect about including him in the election.
But it's a reflection of that very careful calculated and eventually very successful move. So I guess it solidifies really Gibran's rise onto the scene and tells us a little bit about what we should be putting into our focus, at least for the next five to 10 years. So the positioning of Gibran is a key thing,
David: Right.
Suzaina Kadir: I suppose the third thing is it's also a reflection of continuity because the whole entire campaign was around continuity versus change at the end of it. And a continuity of policies at various levels that Prabowo and Gibran represented.
And so it may to some extent reflect that support and that messaging obviously was very successful.
David: It's interesting you talk about the continuity, but then also you mentioned how young people were so excited about the campaign, and of course, Gibran is young. Do you think that this is passing the torch to the next generation. Does it have that kind of feeling?
Suzaina Kadir: If you were at the rally and you looked at that excitement, it appears to be about reaching out to the young. If we look at the pairing of Prabowo and Gibran versus the other two sets it, it was really in the Prabowo and Gibran pairing that you see really the young being represented, right? You don't see that in the other two.
Based on some of the things I was hearing from the young, it wasn't so much about passing the torch, but in the campaign strategy, really harnessing tools that would appeal to the young. So not so much about passing the torch to say a leader that would represent the aspirations of the young. I don't think that came out at least in some of my conversations. But what I was hearing was I guess one can say something relatively superficial, so to speak, which is that in the campaign, in the outreach they were very successful in harnessing the tools that would be appealing to the younger sets. How they use social media, for example.
David: Okay.
Suzaina Kadir: And so on and so forth.
David: And then you mentioned some of the complaints of the other side, and then of course Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo disputed the election outcome. Was that sort of par for the course for Indonesian politics or is this more serious this time?
Suzaina Kadir: Of course, if you speak to the opposition side their argument is that it is far more serious this time around because various instruments and institutions of government and state were actually interfered with to pave the way for some of the things that we saw entering into the election.
So for example the use of the courts to allow for Gibran to run. That's been the main assertion, right? This is serious because as far as the opposition is concerned, this is a significant retreat from whatever Indonesia would've achieved in terms of democratisation, which is building up independent institutions that would enable proper checks and balances. And such interference, particularly in the courts or in other sort of institutions of state, whether it is the police or the military, would be a significant step back.
That's the assertion, particularly from the opposition side. One thing I wanted to flag is that, when we think about Indonesian politics, we often see Jakarta and we often see the main city areas. But Indonesia is far beyond the city areas.
Elections were running throughout. One of the surprising things about the Prabowo win is that it appears to be a sweep through all the provinces. Which was not something as readily seen when Jokowi was running. Because you see different parties contesting at different levels and winning at different levels when you go down into the provinces. What you're seeing now with Prabowo is quite a sweep. And the pair and the parties that were backing Prabowo and Gibran were winning in typically areas where they would not have necessarily won. And that is something quite significant, I think, in this set of elections, but it also comes with another set of allegations.
It's been mentioned in the Indonesian press, but you don't see it so much in the international media, which is that there was a lot of issue with how the votes were counted in the provinces. And there are very serious allegations about a vote rigging that was happening in many of these far-flung provinces. And if you speak to politicians, many of them insist that the rigging was real. In the initial count, for example, they had this number of votes counted for them. But in subsequent counts quite a number of those ballots seem to have disappeared. And that's a serious allegation against, the advances in democratisation.
If this allegation is in fact very real, then again that constitutes I would say a major step back.
David: And do you think with those assertions and those accusations, is there enough of a legal framework and institutional awareness to deal with that, will that get a fair hearing, do you think?
Suzaina Kadir: On the issue of the allegations from the two sets of opposition candidates that's gone to the constitutional courts. The lawyers on all sides have made their case. And these are very, very powerful, very effective lawyers on both sides, right? Whether it's Anies Baswedan or Prabowo's side.
Now in the case of the vote rigging this is something that will have to be addressed by the Elections Commission. And those bodies, there are of course significant doubts, if you speak to opposition politicians, that they would be able to rule in their favour.
So there's a lot of distrust about Bawaslu or even KPU being able to do something around what happened to the votes. It simply disappeared and once the final counting is lodged and acknowledged, then there's no way you can counter that. So, some of the opposition politicians that I spoke to literally said it just disappeared. And there's no way for us to really countercheck what happened to those votes, where did it go?
And so that there's this sense of helplessness, from some of the politicians that there's really not much they can do.
Of course, everything is now focused on what will be the statement from the constitutional court on the current situation with the presidential candidates.
David: Looking at Prabowo's, administration as he's going to serve as president, what do you think are the prospects for economic growth and especially Indonesia's ability to attract foreign investment, including the new capital city of Nusantara, or IKN?
Suzaina Kadir: If we go to the point of Prabowo really representing continuity, we will see quite a bit of continuity with whatever Jokowi had put in place.
There are key challenges around the economy that will require his attention. My sense is he does bring with him confidence. So I'm optimistic on foreign investment. There's been a question around how much of that's going to be channelled into IKN and the build-up around IKN.
But from what we are seeing, it appears quite a positive sense coming out from the region and many of Indonesia's trading partners, about things continuing on the same path and therefore not much of a destabilisation. From that angle I think it will be attractive and it will continue to be attractive.
I think the support, or at least the statements of support that have come out for Prabowo have been quite enthusiastic from the region as also beyond.
David: Looking a little bit beyond Indonesia's borders do you expect any changes in the Indonesia, Singapore bilateral relationship?
Suzaina Kadir: So that's an interesting question, right? I think Jokowi was very favourable to working very closely with Singapore. And over that whole period we've built very strong ties. We've also sorted through several bilateral issues during the period of Jokowi that includes the issue around the airspace that's been returned to Indonesia. They've also sorted through the extradition agreement to enable Indonesia to extradite potential criminals right back to Indonesia. These were the thorny parts in the relationship.
Jokowi was very open to, opening the doors for Singapore investment and did quite a bit of outreach to get Singapore investors into IKN. So if we go on the continuity sort of argument, right? One might want to expect that this relationship would continue to be good in particular because the thorny issues have been settled. The only question mark remains that we do know Prabowo to be quite the nationalist, I think far more nationalistic as compared to Jokowi.
So there's some I suppose wondering about whether this very strong stance that Prabowo reflected particularly before, might get reflected in the bilateral relationship and whether there may be some remaining issues that would come to the surface for Prabowo.
David: There's not only the leadership change in Indonesia, but Singapore is seeing a leadership change. Do you see the relationship between the two countries changing based on the personalities of the leaders or the priorities as they both take over?
Suzaina Kadir: That's a good question, because it's not just a leadership change in Indonesia, but we are going to see a leadership change in Singapore as well.
From those of us in Singapore, we've been expecting this leadership change and it's been in the works for some time. Whether we like it or not, in my view, I think the personalities of the leader play a role in terms of how close they are, how much of an interaction that can happen. I would be curious to see eventually the relationship under Deputy Prime Minister right now, Lawrence Wong, how that evolves vis-a-vis Indonesia.
Leaders in Singapore always have exposure to the region. And always build up good bilateral relations as part of their own sort of socialisation as leaders or as future leaders. I can see DPM Lawrence Wong quite comfortable with his Malaysian counterparts, I've seen that a lot more.
It's interesting that I have seen less of that with the Indonesian side. That it may have happened. I may have missed that. But I can't quite place it as yet. I think it will eventually be a factor that we are seeing the fourth generation leaders emerge in Singapore. With probably a different style a different set of considerations in thinking about their relationship and then in having that relationship with the region.
I think the leaders within the region are as curious as those of us in Singapore about what this means in terms of the interaction and what it means for bilateral relations. And we'll see.
David: For Prabowo's administration, and you mentioned his kind of nationalistic bent, how do you think that will affect Indonesian's relationship with ASEAN?
Suzaina Kadir: I almost expect a much more forceful position of Indonesia within ASEAN. And I think that would be good for Indonesia to be focused on taking on a leadership role within ASEAN. Jokowi registered interests in leadership within ASEAN but only in perhaps the last few years of his presidency. Really in the last two years he came out much more strongly on the regional actor front for Indonesia to play on this role.
I think Prabowo is far more savvy when it comes to looking at geopolitics, looking at international relations. He has a very strong military background, so he would be far more knowledgeable in my view on this dimensions.
And really, Indonesia needs to play a leadership role within ASEAN. It is the country most poised to do that. It is the largest. It has the capability to do so. What it requires is really the political will of the leaders. So I would expect Prabowo to push Indonesia in the direction of a leader within ASEAN.
And I think that would be good. Your question was about looking at his nationalistic position and whether he would want to work with ASEAN or stand alone? I think he would still value a leadership within ASEAN rather than taking on a position that Indonesia needs to stand alone and is able to stand alone as a regional or regional player.
Now, eventually Indonesia can do that. But Indonesia isn't there yet, not completely. If he's being strategic about it, then he should play that role via, ASEAN.
David: Okay. Now to China, one of the trips Prabowo made before he's even been inaugurated is to visit with President Xi Jinping. What do you think that signals going forward about the, his plans for the, for Indonesia relationship with China, and how do you think the rest of the world will react to that?
Suzaina Kadir: So I thought that was interesting because my initial reading of Prabowo was that he had a much stronger relationship with the United States as opposed to China in part because of his own military background, and the very close relationship, particularly in the early years of the Indonesian military with the United States. Throughout Jokowi's period, Indonesia has a very close relationship with China, a very close economic relationship. And one wonders about the political relationship.
But certainly Jokowi and his administration built up a fairly solid relationship with China. Chinese investments flowed heavily into Indonesia and China has been a very important partner in many of those infrastructure projects. So I thought the visit was interesting maybe to signal again that continuity continuing very close economic relationship with China. Maybe to also register Prabowo's openness to working with China. And to comment on our initial assumptions that he would be far closer to the United States, as opposed to China and what that would mean in terms of the presidency.
So I thought it was a signalling of that continuity that he was not departing too much from what Jokowi had built. Having said that, I still am of the view that Prabowo has a close relationship with the United States. I think a far greater relationship with the United States than perhaps Jokowi.
David: Okay, interesting. Now let's bring all those threads together because if the Prabowo Administration's going to be more of a leader in ASEAN, but also has this close relationship with China, how do you foresee this playing out with things like the disputes in the South China Sea, or other multinational relationships such as that?
Suzaina Kadir: You're right, so we'll have to bring this all together. If I see Prabowo with that nationalistic hat he would obviously put Indonesia's interest at the centre. It's really which vehicle he might want to project that power. I don't know Prabowo, but I actually think he's smart, very intelligent.
He probably has a full view of geopolitics as it's evolving. And he probably can think strategically on how he would want to position Indonesia here. So he would want Indonesia to be friends with the big powers, but he would know that he would have to work in an environment where Indonesia's core interest remains protected.
And that means working closely with China, working closely with the United States. Having a firm position, in my view, within ASEAN, and really ensuring Indonesia's leadership within ASEAN. And ASEAN, it's an association with 10 members. All of whom are very wary and cognizant of the geopolitics between China and the United States and how they need to maintain that balance. I don't see Prabowo deviating from that. I don't see him leaning in maybe too much on either one side, at least at this point.
We'll have to see what happens post inauguration and as he gets more comfortable in that role about whether he sees Indonesia's best projection and in what direction being the nationalist which I think he is, he'll want to maintain Indonesia in that balancing role. And whether Indonesia can play that balancing role again, like I said earlier, entirely on his own, or whether it's going to have to be done via the ASEAN framework, I think that's what we would need to observe a lot more carefully.
David: It's going to be interesting to see because regardless, he's going to end up being a key player in the relationship.
Suzaina Kadir: That's the thing, right? So Indonesia, whether they like it or not, will automatically become a key player. Is he able to strategise around how best to harness that position? I have this optimistic view that I think maybe with Prabowo, Indonesia might really take the lead within ASEAN which is something ASEAN does need in playing that balancing role.
David: Very good. Now looking again maybe a little bit more globally now, beyond the Southeast Asia region and APAC, Prabowo has been accused of human rights abuses in the past and criticised for his authoritarianism. Do you think this will be a problem on the global stage dealing with perhaps Europe or United States?
Suzaina Kadir: That's an interesting question because I don't see it an issue up until this point. There was some rumblings when it became clear that Prabowo will be the one moving forward in this presidential race. And that Prabowo had actually the backing of Jokowi which was not necessarily clear cut at the beginning. And at that point I saw some mention of the past and some level of discomfort. But I think it hasn't featured so centrally anymore. After the win, I think he's been congratulated by leaders from the West without the issue of the human rights abuses being mentioned necessarily. And so I don't see that playing a central role. At least based on what I'm reading right now.
I think that domestically also, it hasn't emerged. The issue of authoritarianism it has been coloured within the larger context of stepping back from democracy, that debate, you hear that domestically. But that's not just a Prabowo thing.
It's actually the whole spectrum again, of institutions, of political parties and other politicians as well.
David: Okay. Now looking at just Indonesia and the United States relationship what do you think about it under Prabowo, and do you think it would be different whether current President Biden wins re-election or if Donald Trump wins this upcoming election?
Suzaina Kadir: That, that's interesting, right? I don't quite know the answer to that. Towards this last few months, Biden's taken a far more I think nationalistic stance for the US and maybe that's the run up to the elections as well.
I almost think that Prabowo probably would have a good relationship with Trump if Trump comes in. But I can't say, I haven't looked carefully at his interactions when Trump was in fact a president of the United States. But I think how the US positions itself vis-a-vis China, how the US positions itself in terms of its own power projection into the region, I think that would be quite central.
In an instance when the US was less interested in a projection into the region. And you saw that for quite a bit of time. I think this becomes, I think, quite rocky, for the key actors within the region when US pulls back.
Because it has other interests clearly.
David: Again, Indonesia's going to be a key player there, whether they want to or not.
Suzaina Kadir: Exactly.
David: Interesting to watch. What about any potential pitfalls that Prabowo should look out for, or, what worries you? What do you think might come up that could present a problem or that really needs to be addressed?
Suzaina Kadir: A lot of it, I'm coming from just looking at it domestically. I suppose at the regional and global level, it still remains primarily the geopolitical tensions between the US and China. As we are saying whether Indonesia likes it or not, they have to come in and lead.
They'll be at the centre of it. So how they play on that strategically, probably, it's going to be key. I happen to take the optimistic view that Prabowo probably will surround himself with I think key technocrats that can have a strategic perspective on this. And therefore manage that balancing role.
But that balancing role is predicated on, the sort of very strong presence of both China and the US in the region. I mentioned earlier that depending on what happens in the US, if the US decides to shift from the region from Asia Pacific, which you saw earlier on. Then I think that may change the dynamic. And that potentially poses a key challenge, not only for Indonesia, Prabowo but also for ASEAN because they would contend with a less than interested US versus a very interested China. And a very strong one.
I think the issues, the challenges for the first probably few months and maybe two years is really domestic.
What we are waiting on now is firstly the decision of the constitutional court, but we also know that while you can be president, there's also political party constellation. So we are trying to look at what is going to be the constellation between the two sides, between the opposition and the government side, right?
Which political parties would be in support of the government? Which stand in opposition? What the election results tell us is that in terms of seats within parliament you'll see that the seats will be dominated by PDIP, so PDIP will continue to play a very central role. The key question really now is whether PDIP will side with the government, join the government coalition, whether they will stand together with the smaller opposition parties.
If they do side with the government, then it's a clean sweep. And whatever changes and legislation they want to do that will just flow through. But if they do want to side onto the opposition, then there is a room for the political parties or the opposition within parliament to intervene on certain legislation that Prabowo and Gibran may want to push through.
So they have an ability to not only check, but they can stop. So that's the other constellation we are looking at.
Finally, I think it's a really big question that lots of people are asking, which is okay, so you have Prabowo and you have Gibran. Typically the setup is that the vice president takes on a fairly muted role, or at least does not overshadow the central place of the Indonesian president. And you've seen this throughout Jokowi's time and even before. We don't know now the stance of Gibran whether he would be quite satisfied with taking a muted role or whether he would want to carve out his own positioning within that pairing.
And if so, I guess some analysts are wondering whether and how soon we might see cracks between Prabowo's position and that of Gibran. Again, this is based on, the sudden arrival of Gibran into the mix. That was not something anticipated.
He's very young. He has a long way to go and may want to establish his position carefully. There's also a question mark. I think some have raised, or you've seen this in the local media, about what role Jokowi will continue to play. Does he step back as the former president and keep quite silent?
Or does he take on a mentorship role? Some talk about him serving as advisor. It's good from a continuity perspective. But how much of that may lead to its own set of power play between Prabowo and then Jokowi? Because we've seen that in the past. Where there's a split happens and then it derails a little bit of the projection of the president's power and what he wants to achieve.
So these remain the question marks, I think.
David: Thank you so much for sharing all your insights with us today and helping us understand what's going on. As you said, I think watching Indonesia politics is always surprising and always interesting. No matter what happens, there should be a lot of exciting things to see.
Suzaina Kadir: Exactly. Absolutely. Yeah, Indonesia is a wonderful place to keep looking at because it continues to surprise us. Okay. Thank you so much.