On 1st February, the Malaysian government had called for the Myanmar military government to uphold the rule of law and resolve electoral discrepancies through established legal mechanisms, instead of declaring a state of emergency.
Ironically, the statement was advocated by a government that was formed as a result of a political manoeuvre nicknamed the Sheraton Move that ousted a democratically elected government. As if the pot was calling the kettle black.
Surprisingly the declaration of emergency, supposedly in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, happened almost concurrently when the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), an ally to Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin's coalition government, was increasingly vocal about a general election to be held as soon as possible. The state of emergency provides Muhyiddin’s government extensive executive powers to delay a general election, disregard the rule of law, and prevent Parliament from convening, shielding his National Alliance (PN) government from further coalition pressure or transitional risks.
With the recent withdrawal of support from several UMNO lawmakers, Muhyiddin’s PN government hangs in the balance and is on the verge of losing its majority in Parliament. The majority held by Muhyiddin’s current coalition is the narrowest since Malaysia’s independence. However, the emergency prevents Muhyiddin’s support from being tested in Parliament and gives him room to breathe and plan his next move before the next general election. Nevertheless, it is noteworthy that the King had recently stated that Parliament can convene during an emergency if the conditions permit, allowing the opposition to launch a fresh no-confidence vote against the Prime Minister.
Despite the simmering political tensions within PN and non-stop politicking from both sides of the divide, it could be wise for Prime Minister Muhyiddin to call for an election as soon as the COVID-19 situation gets under control and elections are safe to be held. This is because the opposition, the Alliance of Hope (PH), led by Anwar Ibrahim is equally divided amongst their leadership and lacks popularity among the Malay voters - who remain unhappy with the rising costs of living and neglect of indigenous rights.
PH currently does not have the numbers to form a new government, although alleged otherwise by Anwar Ibrahim. Although PH has 89 out of 222 seats in Parliament, the continuing tussle between Anwar and his nemesis former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad have fractured the opposition. As a result, while Mahathir’s new Homeland Fighters Party (PEJUANG) and the Sabah Heritage Party (WARISAN) have 12 seats altogether, they have not aligned with Anwar and PH. Many on PH’s side have also cited betrayal on Mahathir’s part following his resignation following the Sheraton Move.
Although UMNO has declared that it will not work with Prime Minister Muhyiddin’s party in the next general election, the state of emergency offers him more time to horse trade and stabilise conflicting factions within his government to ensure that he has a strong coalition going into the next general election. With time on his side, Prime Minister Muhyiddin should shift his focus towards the looming general election. Muhyiddin has already started moving his chess pieces as seen with the two PH lawmakers defecting and showing support to Muhyiddin as of 28th February.
As the Ministry of Health projects that the pandemic curve can be flattened in three months, COVID-19 cases in Malaysia are expected to stabilise by June. The independent committee set up as part of the emergency can then advise the King to shorten the duration of the state of emergency. Although the national vaccination plan is only due to complete by early 2022, the vaccination programme which has begun will likely result in looser movement restrictions. This will enable Prime Minister Muhyiddin and his government to claim credit for successfully managing the pandemic.
Riding on the success in handling the COVID-19 pandemic coupled with stimulus packages for economic recovery, Prime Minister Muhyiddin can then call for a general election once the emergency is lifted. However, it must be taken into account that the aftermath from the Sabah state elections which triggered the spike in COVID-19 cases is still fresh on the voters’ minds. The double standards practiced by the PN government on stay-home notices have sparked further fury among Malaysians. Nevertheless, in order to put to rest the concerns of a "back-door government" and to restore political legitimacy, the best way forward is a free and fair general election to decide the fate of Malaysia’s political future.