On a
typical day in Hong Kong in October 2019, police fired tear gas at protesters trying to blockade a metro station while residents emerged from surrounding apartments in a show of support, defying jeering police and warnings to stay inside.
It was
hardly different from the days which preceded it — if anything it was calmer — and serves to show how routine street protests have become in Hong Kong over the past few months and how broad-based is the sentiment driving them.
Indonesia, meanwhile, was still recovering from some of the
worst rioting it has seen since the toppling of President Suharto two decades ago, with tens of thousands of students and other protesters taking to the streets recently in cities across the country.
What is driving the unrest and how can governments restore order without resorting to further violence?
Global conflict expert and Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy Associate Dean
Francesco Mancini says it is important to bear in mind that mass protest movements can develop a logic and momentum of their own, sliding from peaceful demonstrations into rioting and violence as inhibitions gradually break down.
“There is also a psychological effect of rioting,” he says.
“A lot of these movements start in a fairly pacific way but there is a sense of camaraderie, particularly when you start to get attacked, and then it’s very easy for things to get out of control.”
But it would be a mistake to dismiss all rioters as hooligans. To understand what is happening, Professor Mancini argues it is necessary to distinguish between surface triggers and deeper social causes.
“There is always a trigger for a riot — there is always a particular reason why people take to the streets — but it would be superficial to think that is the reason for the riot,” he says. “The reasons are generally much deeper and there is always some kind of social-economic angle.”
Identifying the riot triggers In both Hong Kong and Indonesia, the surface triggers are easy to identify.
Mass social unrest seemed to erupt more or less spontaneously in response to specific developments in the formal political system: proposed new laws seen as impinging on civil liberties and safeguards.
Hong Kong’s protests began in March following the introduction of amendments to its extradition laws that would have allowed local authorities to detain and extradite criminal suspects wanted in mainland China.
In Indonesia, clashes between riot police and students erupted as members of the outgoing Parliament moved to pass laws restricting the country’s anti-graft agency, the Corruption Eradication Commission.
That added heat to already simmering tensions over separate revisions to Indonesia’s penal code that would
criminalise various forms of extramarital sexual activity.
The momentum of a riot In retrospect, legislators in both jurisdictions appear to have misjudged the public mood and level of acquiescence their policies would receive.
They have since been forced to retreat — to greater or lesser degree — from their initial stance yet the tension and in some cases, violence continues.
Causation runs deep Professor Mancini says a thoughtful analysis must go beyond daily events to the deeper forces affecting people’s lives.
He says that riots and protests are less likely to be political. “Generally they have some kind of economic or social background and when the economy or social marginalisation hurt, then people have a motivation to do something like that, to take to the street.”
Indonesia’s recent presidential elections were widely seen as further polarising the country between hard-line Islamists on the one hand and moderate or non-Muslims on the other.
Although the incumbent, nominally moderate Joko Widodo emerged triumphant, the campaign seemed to
deliver a broader victory to Islamists.
Widodo himself shifted to accommodate them, appointing as his running mate the
conservative cleric Ma’ruf Amim, a prominent supporter of those moves to outlaw extramarital sex.
Martin Luther King once called riots “
the language of the unheard” — a group which lacks legitimate means to express its aspirations will take whatever alternatives available.
In Indonesia, even moderates seem to have adopted pro-Islamist polices, entrenching an elite now apparently free to further enrich itself thanks to a proposed weakening of anti-corruption provisions.
In a formal political sense, where does this leave young, more liberal-minded Indonesians if not unheard?
“The problem is that the people who think differently have no political leverage, they’re not organised. So what do they do? They go into the street to protest.”
In Hong Kong, likewise, many of those taking part in the protest movement feel disenfranchised by a government seen as
lacking legitimacy and autonomy from Beijing.
They have made universal suffrage one of their five key demands and show no signs of giving up their struggle, despite
having already achieved one of the five, formal withdrawal of the extradition bill which sparked protests in the first place. If the unrest in Hong Kong appears more intractable, its causes are also deeper and more widespread.
Surveys show people in Hong Kong are increasingly pessimistic about a future they feel powerless to change, and a clear majority are deeply
dissatisfied with city’s political situation.
While previous generations placed their faith in the rewards of hard work, many
young people today see few opportunities to improve their lot short of emigrating.
The city has watched its
living standards stagnate over recent years and once formidable economic
status vis-a-vis mainland neighbours like Shenzen diminish.
The latter only serves to increase resentment towards a country from which a surprising number already feel profoundly alienated.
In one
recent survey respondents were asked to choose between a number of terms to describe their ethnic identity. “Hongkongers” ranked first, followed by “Asians”, then “global citizens.” “Citizens of the PRC” ranked last, behind “Chinese” and “members of the Chinese race.”
The importance of dialogue Professor Mancini says such issues are difficult to address because both the causes and solutions are long term. He argues that the first step is dialogue, a process that allows dissenters back into the political fold by providing an opportunity to express grievances non-violently.
“When this violence happens it’s because people have no space to express themselves,” he says. “So you have to create that space, a space that I call political in the sense that it is a non-violent conversation.”
Policies addressing the issues raised could take years to work but the effects of dialogue are felt immediately. Professor Mancini argues it is here that governments should focus their effort.
“You have to recognise that you have an issue and start to work on that,” he says.
Photo:
Studio Incendo