Indonesians will head to the polls on 14 February 2024 to elect a new president after 10 years. This marks the end of President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo’s leadership, as he is constitutionally not allowed to stand beyond two terms. Some 204 million out of 270 million Indonesians are eligible to vote, and of this, 52 per cent are young voters aged between 17 and 40.
Although Southeast Asia’s largest economy is still viewed by investors as one of the region’s hotspots, an incoming president will need to address key domestic issues which remain a concern among voters. Among these are ensuring job growth and crimping the cost of living amid high inflation, ensuring good governance and eradicating corruption, and improving infrastructure and connectivity for better quality of life.
Despite a GDP growth of approximately 5 per cent (
Statistics Indonesia) in the third quarter of 2023, 1.5 per cent of Indonesians are still living under extreme poverty, earning just US$1.90 a day. Indonesians remain concerned about the economy and the impact on their livelihoods, given job cuts in various industries and soaring costs. Also, there are questions around dynastic politics as the courts overturned an age limit ruling to allow the president’s son to stand as a vice-president hopeful. Additionally, Widodo’s push to move the administrative capital from Jakarta to Nusantara in East Kalimantan is a large-scale infrastructure effort whose implementation timeline is uncertain once he steps down.
We explore what each pair has promised to bring to the table and a projection of their policy stance.
Anies Baswedan - Muhaimin Iskandar: Conservative no more?
Anies Baswedan, a scholar and former university rector, rose to prominence when President Widodo appointed him as Minister of Education from 2014 to 2016.
In 2017, he ran for Jakarta's governorship, and was accused of playing up identity politics and endorsing anti-Chinese messages in order to secure votes from the hardliner group of Muslims against his ethnic Chinese contender.
This reinforced the perception that he leans conservative. To balance the ticket, Muhaimin Iskandar was chosen, known for his close ties with Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the largest Muslim organisation in Indonesia, and viewed as moderate. Anies aims to position himself as a centrist, seeking support from the large NU community in East Java.
Such a sentiment is also shared by the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy’s Vice Dean (Academic Affairs) and Associate Professor, Suzaina Kadir, “We've seen the identity politics that was associated with him before and around the elections when he was running for the position of Jakarta governor. It would be interesting to see whether he can shake that identity politics association.”
This pair’s key priorities revolve around strengthening the economy, poverty eradication, and sustainable development. They aim to eliminate extreme poverty by 2026 while generating 15 million new green jobs and employment opportunities that contribute to preserving or restoring the environment and promoting sustainability, between 2025 and 2029. Recognising the realistic average growth rate of the previous administration, they target a 5.5-6.5 per cent annual economic growth.
In terms of green energy transition, they support phasing out coal-fired power plants and emphasise diversifying clean energy sources such as geothermal and biomass. The pair also express scepticism about the necessity of a new capital city, Nusantara, which could scuttle President Widodo’s ambitious new capital plans.
However, they remain committed to developing regions outside of Java, acknowledging the existing underdevelopment in those areas. The pair also pledged to continue implementing ongoing projects initiated by the outgoing president, such as the Sumatra Toll Road, Java Toll Road, and the Sulawesi Railway.
Recognising the urgency to clamp down on corruption, the Anies-Muhaimin pair is advocating for the introduction of an asset forfeiture bill designed to significantly penalise and deter acts of corruption. There would also be a new emphasis on rewarding those who report corruption as well as those who are part of the investigative process, signalling that the anti-corruption movement must be a collective effort involving the entire community.
Prabowo Subianto - Gibran Rakabuming Raka: The old and new guard
Prabowo Subianto, who previously ran for president in 2014 and 2019, is making his third attempt at the presidency. Despite his previous losses,
latest polls (as of January 2024) show that Prabowo has gained a clear lead over the other two contenders.
Such a lead can be due to Prabowo’s close association with Widodo, as explained by Professor Kadir, “This is understandable simply because of the association of Prabowo with Jokowi, which reflects how much support there is for Jokowi, or at least the continuation of Jokowi’s legacy."
However, this pair also comes with controversies. Prabowo has had a chequered past of alleged human rights abuses in East Timor during the conflict in 1983, and he was linked to the kidnapping of 13 student activists in 1998. He has denied any wrongdoing. Gibran Rakabuming Raka is President Widodo’s eldest son whose legitimacy to contest the election has sparked criticism. At 36, and having served only two years in a major political office as Mayor of Solo, he did not initially meet the minimum age of 40 to be able to contest. The Supreme Court, led by President Widodo's brother-in-law, ultimately ruled in favour of Gibran.
This choice can be seen as Prabowo’s attempt to court young voters, the largest voting bloc in this election, and President Widodo’s attempt to stay in power. Prabowo has since expressed his commitment to continue President Widodo’s infrastructure and economic plans, including the building of Nusantara.
Prabowo and Gibran aim to achieve a sustainable, albeit ambitious, economic growth of 6-7 per cent from 2025. They plan to generate jobs on a large scale by prioritising local labour to address unemployment rates. They also aim to reduce extreme poverty to 0 per cent within the first two years of their administration.
Prabowo's plans to support the green transition are similar to Anies' proposals, phasing out coal-fired power plants and emphasising diverse clean energy sources like geothermal and biomass. However, Prabowo’s business interests in the coal sector cast doubts into how impartial he will be in policymaking related to this sector.
Ganjar Pranowo - Mohammad Mahfud Mahmodin: The populists
Ganjar Pranowo's political journey bears a resemblance to President Widodo's rise in 2014. President Widodo began his political climb as a Mayor in Solo, before bidding for the Jakarta Governor job which he won, and then gunning for the presidential office which he was elected to in 2014. Similarly, Ganjar, who was elected as a parliamentarian in 2004, became a rising star and won the 2013 Central Java gubernatorial. He and President Widodo are from the same political party, Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). Both are also popular due to their magnetic personality and ability to connect with ordinary people.
The selection of Mahfud as Ganjar's running mate is seen as an attempt to garner support from traditional/centre Islamists, as Mahfud is affiliated with Nahdlatul Ulama, the world's largest Muslim organisation.
Ganjar has pledged to continue the current administration's policies, especially regarding economic and infrastructure policies. He and his running mate aim to achieve a growth rate of 7 per cent and create 17 million new job opportunities with the hopes of achieving 0 per cent extreme poverty by 2026. They are also committed to continuing the existing infrastructure plans in Indonesia to ensure connectivity and the development of the new capital, Nusantara.
On corruption and governance, Ganjar has promised to impoverish offenders and send them to Nusa Kambangan, a place known for its high-level security prisons. He also advocated that leaders and officials should live modestly, leading an example for the public.
If the pair wins, Professor Kadir explained that it underscores the strength of political parties in Indonesia. “He's backed by the strongest political party in Indonesia, and I think if he's elected, it would really be the strength of the political party to push their candidate forward and to galvanise the support."
Post-Widodo Indonesia
Latest polls say that the Prabowo-Gibran pair are leading within the 10-15 percentage points, with Anies-Muhaimin at a distant second, and Ganjar-Mahfud right behind. If none of them wins with at least a 50 per cent majority, then the top two performing pairs will enter a second round. Regardless of who ultimately wins the election, Indonesia still needs to contend with an electorate who is expecting longer term solutions to economic challenges such as extreme poverty and unemployment, as well as a government with better leadership to ensure Indonesia remains attractive for investors and continues to keep up with its counterparts in the region.
On the end of Joko Widodo's presidency, Professor Kadir remarked that the policies and changes implemented during his time are significant, "He's left a legacy. He's had a 10-year presidency … overall quite an impressive one." She added: “There will be aspects of the legacy that will continue. The positive effects of his legacy cannot be denied, including the focus on developing regions of Indonesia that are underdeveloped, the work that he's done on the economy and the creation of special economic zones, [and] the focus on building infrastructure to connect different parts of Indonesia so that we can have the movements of goods, people, and services much faster.”