China-India Brief #171

Guest Column

What does a Biden presidency hold for the future of India-US and India-China ties? 


By Swaran Singh    

Image credit: Flickr/Ted Eytan

The election of Joe Biden as the next US president is widely expected to put an end to the last four years of whimsical, unpredictable, personalised, and confrontationist style of diplomacy that was the hallmark of President Donald Trump. With respect to Asia, Trump’s U-turn from “fire and fury” to meeting and falling in love with Kim Jong-un sparked serious anxieties amongst friends and foes alike. The only consistency that the Trump presidency has shown is its ability to repeatedly undermine international institutions and annoy close US allies—the very elements undergirding America’s global leadership as well as upholding stability and security throughout the world. 

Going by Biden’s public pronouncements so far, his presidency should bring the US back to more conventional strategies, showcasing a more nuanced, rules-based, and institutionalised approach to foreign policy. Biden has already reiterated US faith in multilateralism and in engaging extant arrangements and allies. The team of Antony Blinken and Jake Sullivan—touted to be Biden’s pick for Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, respectively—are staunch defenders of America’s global alliances and have come to be seen as his voice on foreign policy.

In Asia, the hallmark of Trump’s foreign policy—US-China brinkmanship—coincided with an expeditious strengthening of the US-India strategic partnership. This is likely to be replaced by Biden’s ‘congagement’ (containment via engagement) strategy. Even before taking the reins, Biden has described China as America’s “biggest competitor” and Russia its “biggest threat”. This should see him engage China where he can and contain it where he must, thereby bringing back a measure of predictability and manageability to US-China ties. However, Biden cannot afford to relent on tough posturing vis-à-vis Beijing. Back when Trump and Biden were still on the campaign trail and both candidates were trying to outdo one another on how strong they were on China, Biden had raised issues about Hong Kong and the treatment of minorities in Xinjiang and went so far as to call President Xi “a thug”—all of which did not go unnoticed in Beijing.

Election speeches are aimed largely at domestic constituencies, yet the impact of the political polarisation at home and strategic brinksmanship in foreign policy that the Trump presidency unleashed is not going to disappear soon. With the coronavirus pandemic raging across the US, things are not going to be easy for the Biden presidency. Biden will be far too deeply engaged in resolving domestic health and economic challenges to reset the fundamentals of Trump’s foreign policy. This could limit President Biden’s approach to China to a change of style rather than substance. Looking at the unprecedented support that Trump received in the elections (some 71 million votes), it is clear that while he will eventually exit the Oval Office, Trumpism is likely to remain an enduring political force. Biden’s Republican opponents may find it difficult to oppose his reset on domestic health and economic policies, but they can certainly stymie his reset in foreign policy. To begin with, the Republican-controlled Senate would continue to block most of Biden’s policy priorities. Meanwhile, China seems intent on expanding its footprint in regional geopolitics and also in converting its economic power into political influence by cultivating international institutions, actors, and other agencies.

India, among others, has faced China’s persistent incremental push, increasing the frequency, size, and intensity of its incursions on their long-disputed border regions. China’s infrastructure building over the last few decades has enabled this shift, which India has so far sought to address using diplomatic means. The result has been new ‘grey zones’ in their differing perceptions about the Line of Actual Control and a growing incidence of brinksmanship between their armed forces. In the last few years, this has not only resulted in frequent and prolonged stand-offs but also in the loss of lives, as in June this year in the Galwan valley. Continuing border tensions since then has pushed India closer to the US, with the Trump administration openly showcasing India’s co-optation in its China policy.

Rising US-China tensions encouraged Trump’s courtship of India, accelerating the signing of the three “foundational agreements”, i.e. LEMOA, BECA, and COMCASA, as well as several other defence arrangements, putting India on par with other US allies. India may not always have toed the US line, but New Delhi has undeniably tilted towards greater alignment with Washington’s policies and priorities. This year, India hosted President Trump in February and his Secretaries of State and Defence in October, with the issue of managing China clearly emerging as their shared priority. With the much-expected reset in Biden’s China policy, would this imply a slowdown in US-India ties?

Optimists in India of course see US-China competition and the US-India strategic partnership as being deep-rooted and institutionalized within the American political leadership. Even previous US administrations which deviated from this stance eventually came around. Former President Barack Obama, whose recent biography has much praise for Dr Manmohan Singh, had begun his innings by talking of a possible G2 with China and of the need to tie India into arms control. Obama changed course thereafter and cultivated a close relationship with India.

On the Indian side, Prime Minister Modi is among  a select few who managed to tactfully cultivate a close personal friendship with Trump despite some of the ups and downs in India-US relations during Trump’s presidency. In contrast to Beijing, which took ten days to congratulate Biden on his election victory, Modi was amongst the first to send his congratulations to the new president-elect and his running mate, Kamala Harris. Not only is Harris of Indian descent, but Biden himself has an ancestral connection to India, making their election win a historic and unprecedented opportunity for New Delhi to draw even closer to Washington.

Having said that, the US and India have over time built an enduring partnership, guided by their core national interests, both sides will have to address ongoing differences on trade, H1-B visas, and even the Indo-Pacific. While these day-to-day challenges will continue to engage their attention and energy, the fundamental strategic reality is that the US sees a rising China as a challenge, while it sees India as an opportunity. This is not likely to change with the coming Biden presidency.

Swaran Singh is the Chairman at the Center for International Politics, Organization and Disarmament, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

The views expressed in the article are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy or the National University of Singapore.

News Reports

Bilateral relations

China-India border dispute: massive convoy delivers winter supplies to troops at Himalayan outposts
South China Morning Post, November 23

A week-long transport mission delivered rations to Chinese soldiers stationed along the border with India, according to state media. Both sides have deployed extra troops in the high-altitude conflict zone during their worst stand-off in decades.

Assault vehicles, drones assist border control troops in Tibet
Global Times, November 21

China's new-generation off-road assault vehicles, intelligent equipment have been commissioned to the People's Liberation Army (PLA) border defense troops stationed in Southwest China's Tibet Autonomous Region as cold weather descends on the region and border tensions remain high.

China sees rising India as rival, wants to constrain ties with US: State Dept
The Indian Express, November 20

China perceives a “rising India as a rival” and wants to constrain its strategic partnership with the US, its allies and other democracies, the US State Department has said in a report.

China is fortifying defences across Ladakh border, not prepping to disengage
Hindustan Times, November 19

China’s PLA, contrary to media reports, is not moving back from Finger 4 on the north bank of Pangong Tso and is carrying out an exercise to widen and black tar a road between Finger 6 and Finger 8 to enable faster deployment of troops.

“Expansionism Shows Distorted Mindset”: PM Slams China In Diwali Speech
NDTV, November 15

The Prime Minister warned “expansionist” forces and said the nation's soldiers would give a “prachand jawab (fierce reply)” if borders were threatened.  

China, India to implement reciprocal disengagement plan, with India first withdrawing trespassing staff: source
Global Times, November 13

The Global Times has learned from sources that China and India are about to implement a disengagement plan under reciprocal principle with the premise that India should firstly withdraw staff who illegally crossed lines on the southern side of the Pangong Tso Lake.

Satellite images appear to show China developing area along disputed border with India and Bhutan
CNN, November 24

New satellite images appear to show China has built up an area in the Himalayas along a disputed border with India and Bhutan that was the site of a months-long standoff in 2017.

G20 Summit: China ready to narrow differences, resolve disputes through dialogue, says Xi Jinping
Business Today, November 22

Addressing the virtual G20 Summit hosted by Saudi Arabia's King Salman, Xi said China will always be a builder of global peace, a contributor to global development and a defender of international order.

Beijing: any scheme to sabotage China-Pakistan Economic Corridor won't succeed
CGTN, November 20

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian made the remarks at a regular press briefing in response to a question about Pakistan's recent allegations against India.

China pushing weapons into Myanmar, India; threatening regional security: Report
Money Control, November 18

Intelligence agencies have informed the Centre that China is supplying ammunition to insurgent groups along the Myanmar border.

Xi Jinping offers to cooperate with India, BRICS countries to develop Covid-19 vaccine
The Economic Times, November 18

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday (November 17) offered to cooperate with India and other BRICS nations in the development of vaccines against the coronavirus and called for holding a symposium by the five-member bloc on traditional medicine to explore its role in the Covid-19 prevention and treatment.

Delhi protests as Beijing tries to turn South China Sea Code of Conduct into a barrier to keep US, India, others away from dispute
Deccan Herald, November 15

India on Saturday (November 14) tacitly opposed China's latest move to press the ASEAN hard to insert in the proposed Code of Conduct on the South China Sea certain clauses that would help the communist country keep its rivals and other nations outside the region away from the disputed waters

India, China flex muscle to gain supremacy in post-covid South Asia
Livemint, November 13

On Thursday (November 12), China hosted a high-level virtual meeting with Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka to build up “political consensus" in containing the covid-19 pandemic and boosting economic development.

India will likely go for bilateral trade pacts for now — not mega deals like RCEP
CNBC, November 25

"Until India focuses on improving the manufacturing sector’s competitiveness, it remains ill-placed to participate in regional value chains," Priyanka Kishore, head of India and Southeast Asia economics at Oxford Economics, told CNBC.

Reuters, November 24

India banned 43 mobile applications on Tuesday (November 24) including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd’s e-commerce app Aliexpress in a new wave of web sanctions targeted at China.

India stymies investment from Hong Kong as border row with China drags on
Business Standard, November 23

Amid a border standoff with China, the Indian government had tightened rules for foreign direct investment from all nations sharing a land border.

US, China and EU to shape post-pandemic world economy: Moody’s
Livemint, November 17

The economies of the US and China will not decouple but will become more disengaged, while the EU will remain a proponent of a rules-based global trading system but will likely be pushed in a more protectionist direction.

India considers easing investment rules from neighbours, including China – ET
Today, November 17

India is considering a plan to allow up to 26% foreign direct investment from countries with which it shares a land border, including China, without government scrutiny for some sectors, the Economic Times reported on Tuesday, citing government officials.

China, ASEAN set world's biggest trade pact, leave door open for India
Business Standard, November 15

Officials said the accord leaves the door open for India, which dropped out due to fierce domestic opposition to its market-opening requirements, to rejoin the bloc.

China's moon mission goes 'nowhere near' where humans have landed before
CGTN, November 25

China has launched an unmanned spacecraft to the moon as it attempts to become the first nation in more than 40 years to bring back lunar rocks and soil for scientific analysis.

China Looks To Surpass The U.S. As The World’s Biggest Oil Refiner
Yahoo Finance, November 23

China has 1.4 million bpd in new refining capacity under construction. This amount, distributed among four refinery projects, will add to more than 1 million bpd in new capacity already added since last year.

Modi says India set to double oil refining capacity in 5 years, earlier than expected
ET Auto, November 22

The country's energy minister was quoted in June as saying India's oil refining capacity could jump to 450-500 million tonnes in 10 years from the current level of about 250 million tonnes.

China-led shift to electric vehicles to help end 'oil era': study
Reuters, November 20

An aggressive China-led shift to electric vehicles is expected to slash global oil demand growth by 70% by 2030 and will help bring an end to the “oil era”, according to research by the Carbon Tracker think tank.

Global crude market finds support mainly from China demand
Reuters, November 19

China, the global oil market’s lifeline this year, has stepped up purchases from exporters like Russia, the United States and Angola in recent weeks, while buyers elsewhere pare orders as coronavirus infections surge and fresh lockdowns are put in place.

India only G20 nation doing its 'fair share' to meet 2 degree goal — report
DW, November 19

India is the only country on track among the G20 nations to meet its climate change mitigation commitments, according to the 2020 Climate Transparency report published on Wednesday (November 18).

RCEP’s synergy with China’s economic strategy bodes well for Asia-Pacific
South China Morning Post, November 24

By Wang Huiyao, Founder and President, Center for China and Globalization (CCG)

China’s plans to boost consumption will make it the RECP’s main import magnet, catalysing regional integration, even as RCEP membership opens doors to more trade deals for a reforming China.

India needs to stop hurting itself and others, return to reason
Global Times, November 21

By Qian Feng, Director of the research department, National Strategy Institute, Tsinghua University

The Modi government needs to listen to rational and objective voices and do more to restore the Chinese investors' confidence.

India heads towards economic autarky
The Interpreter, November 20

By David Brewster, Senior Research Fellow, National Security College, Australian National University

India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar this week made the clearest statement yet that India intends to head back down the road of economic autarky – for strategic reasons.

Why India’s ‘Protectionism’ & Move To Stay Out Of RCEP Can Hurt It
The Quint, November 17

By Manoj Joshi, Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi

India is missing out on the opportunity being presented by the shifting of supply chains away from China.

Is BRICS falling apart?
CGTN, November 16

By Ken Moak, co-author of "China's Economic Rise and Its Global Impact"

In light of India and Brazil becoming increasingly antagonistic towards China, one can be forgiven for suggesting the BRICS club of major emerging economies might be falling apart.

Sino-Indian Contestation in the Offing as the Two Powers Rise in the Indo-Pacific
ISPI, November 15

By Harsh V. Pant, Professor, King’s College London; and Director of Studies, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi

The single most important determinant in India’s foreign policy evolution has been the spectacular rise of China and all its attendant consequences for Indian interests.

Not joining RCEP a strategic blunder that will lead to India’s isolation in globalization
Global Times, November 13

By Liu Zongyi, Secretary-General, Research Center for China-South Asia Cooperation, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies; Visiting Fellow, Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China; and Distinguished Fellow, China (Kunming) South Asia & Southeast Asia Institute.

Opting out of the RCEP means India will be isolated in the next round of globalization and regional economic integration, but for other RCEP members, it means they will meet fewer obstacles in promoting regional economic integration.