China-India Brief #166

Guest Column

Sino-Indian border spat: do not poke the distressed dragon

By Daniel Balazs    

Image credit: Max Pixel

After more than four decades of relative silence on the disputed Sino-Indian boundary, the edifice of hard-earned stability is cracking. In mid-June, border troops clashed with each other, resulting in deadly casualties. The border confrontation is part of a bigger picture in which China faces severe external and internal challenges. These are extremely volatile times in Chinese foreign policy, necessitating prudence and caution from international actors in their engagement with Beijing.

The current crisis began on May 5, when 250 Chinese and Indian troops brawled and hurled stones at one another in the western section of the disputed boundary at the Pangong Tso lake. On May 9, another fight arose between 150 troops at Nathu La in the middle section of the border. In order to keep tensions at bay, Corps Commanders from both sides convened a meeting on June 6 and officials subsequently asserted that the incident was being defused. However, a lethal conflict erupted on June 15 in the Galwan Valley of the western section, leading to the 20 deaths on the Indian side. At the time of this writing, China remained silent about its losses.

The confrontations signal the gradual breakdown of an intricate set of measures that were implemented after Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s 1988 visit to China. The two sides signed an agreement to maintain tranquillity in 1993, agreed to put limitations on their military capabilities in the border region in 1996, and signed further pacts to ensure that armed encounters between their forces are kept in check. In the meanwhile, Chinese and Indian officials frequently met to discuss the border dispute under the aegis of the Special Representative dialogues, the Expert Group, and the Joint Working Group.

The Ladakh confrontations are bad news, because the stakes could hardly be higher. China and India are the most populous nations on the planet, they are among the most important economies and both possess nuclear weapons. The border dispute creates perpetual volatility in their bilateral interaction, as territorial issues are among the top causes of interstate wars. So, we have more than two billion people, nuclear weapons and a good reason to fight.

How is it possible to avoid further escalation then? It all starts with making sense of the external and internal dynamics of the confrontation. On the external front, this is not the only contentious issue that Beijing is embroiled in. In June, China was charged with expanding territorial claims in the South China Sea, resulting in a pushback from the Philippines, the US and Australia. At the same time, Beijing and Washington are locked in a vicious trade struggle.

Internally, Xi Jinping is in a tough spot. On the one hand, he is engaged in one of the most ambitious power consolidation campaigns in China which involves political purges, institutional overhaul and a probably lengthy tenure as president. Although we are unable to get a peek into the black box of the Chinese political elite, some argue that Xi’s moves continue to encounter opposition in the highest echelons of the Chinese Communist Party. At the same time, Xi has to deal with the political and economic aftermath of the National Security Law in Hong Kong as well as the deepening divide between the mainland and Taiwan.

In some Chinese leaders’ reading, these external and internal challenges overlap. For instance, Defence Ministry spokesman Wu Qian said that external forces cooperate with leaders in Taipei, exacerbating separatism there. China has made similar claims about the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong.

Therefore, Chinese actions on the Sino-Indian border were executed by a state facing external and internal challenges. Those are the times when China is inclined to use force in its neighbourhood. Hence, India and other regional actors have to tread carefully in their engagement with the PRC.

Bilaterally, India’s kneejerk reaction might be to reinforce its post-Doklam trajectory of bolstering ties with like-minded states like Japan, the US and Australia. Such a move, however, entails risks. In the run-up to the 1962 and 1967 border confrontations, China referred to India as an agent of US imperialism and Soviet revisionism. This suggests that China is most concerned about Indian actions when they are seen as part of a coordinated effort of containing the PRC. India’s newfound love with the Quad states might exacerbate Chinese threat perceptions and lead to escalation in the border region. India is a prime target in case China wants to demonstrate its prowess against the Quad.

Regionally, China’s neighbours have to be prepared to deal with an irascible China. At times of internal strife, no leader can afford to show weakness on issues related to the state’s core interests. China pushed through the National Security Law in Hong Kong, despite its political and economic repercussions. At the same time, China also stands resolute on the Sino-Indian border while tensions remain high. The same can be expected in the East and South China Sea disputes.

In other words, international actors dealing with China in the near future are looking at a rough ride. The key to manoeuvre for China’s disputants correctly lies in exercising caution in sensitive political issues without compromising one’s own interests.

Daniel Balazs is a Ph.D. candidate at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. His research focuses on Sino-Indian relations and Chinese foreign policy.

The views expressed in the article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy or the National University of Singapore.

News Reports

Bilateral relations

China and India accuse each other of opening fire as border tensions rise 
The Guardian, September 8

Tensions have escalated between Indian and Chinese forces along their disputed Himalayan border after accusations that shots were fired for the first time in 45 years.

Indian Army seeks China’s response on abduction of 5 men from Arunachal Pradesh
India Today, September 7

The Indian Army on Sunday (September 6) took up the matter with its Chinese counterpart the People's Liberation Army (PLA).

China planning building spree in Tibet as India tensions rise, sources say
Reuters, September 4

China is planning a more than 1 trillion yuan ($146 billion) push to accelerate infrastructure investment in Tibet, including new and previously announced projects

Channels of dialogue open, China will not be first to escalate China-India border dispute: Wang Yi
Global Times. September 1

During his recent visit to France, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi delivered a speech at the French Institute of International Relations and answered questions about China-India ties, saying China is ready to manage all kinds of issues through dialogue with India.

Pranab Mukherjee's Death “Heavy Loss For China-India Friendship”: Beijing
NDTV, September 1

China today paid rich tributes to former President Pranab Mukherjee, saying he was a veteran statesman and his death is a huge loss for India-China friendship.

PLA's Western Theater Command says India broke promises and trespassed China's border again
CGTN, August 31

Indian troops intruded in the China-controlled Galwan Valley on August 31, which broke the promises and consensus reached by two sides after rounds of dialogue, Western Theater Command spokesperson Senior Colonel Zhang Shuili said in a statement.

India and China need to reach an ‘understanding or equilibrium’, says Jaishankar
The Print, August 31

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar also says if China is asserting power and influence in areas ‘we have not seen before’, India is also not going to sit and watch.

Chinese, Indian defense ministers discuss border tension in Moscow
CGTN, September 5

Chinese State Councilor and Minister of National Defense Wei Fenghe on Friday (September 4) met with his Indian counterpart Rajnath Singh and urged the Indian side to jointly ease tensions and safeguard the peace and stability of the China-Indian border.

U.S. happy to help in China-India border dispute, Trump says
Reuters, September 5

The United States is ready to help resolve the dispute between India and China over the mountain border running through the western Himalayas, according to President Donald Trump.

Indian Navy to hold mega exercise with Russia near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands
The Economic Times, September 2

India pulled out of the Kavkaz military exercise in Russia owing to ongoing tensions with China, but the navies of the two countries would now hold joint manoeuvres near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on September 4-5.

‘Standing up against China’ — India set to step into another minilateral within Indo-Pacific
The Print, September 2

India is set to partner Australia and Indonesia to create a minilateral grouping within the larger Indo-Pacific construct.

Govt to clear $2 billion deal for Israeli-made AWACS amid stand-off with China
Hindustan Times, August 28

The Modi government is all set to clear acquisition of two PHALCON airborne warning and control systems (AWACS) as early as next week.

COVID-19 sends most G20 members into negative GDP growth, except China
CGTN, September 5

China’s economy grew by 3.2 percent in April-June from a year earlier, reversing a 6.8-percent decline in the first quarter – the first contraction since at least 1992 when official quarterly GDP records started.

Japan to offer incentives to companies shifting base from China to India: Nikkei
The Economic Times, September 5

Japan has added India and Bangladesh to the list of relocation destinations for companies which shift their manufacturing sites from China to ASEAN countries.

China rails against 'discriminatory' India app ban
Channel News Asia, September 3

China has decried a fresh ban by India on scores of Chinese apps—including the hit game PUBG—as a bitter border showdown seeped out into the tech sphere.

Modi positions India as alternative to China in global supply chain
Livemint, September 3

Modi said at a virtual meeting of the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum on Thursday (September 3) that the coronavirus pandemic has shown the world that the decision on developing global supply chains should be based on not only on costs.

Alibaba puts India investment plan on hold amid China tensions, sources say
Reuters, August 26

Alibaba, which has fuelled the growth of several Indian start-ups, will not put in fresh funds to expand its investments in the country for at least six months, the sources said.

China poised to overtake US in nuclear power by 2030
Nikkei Asian Review, August 31

China is on track to surpass the U.S. as the world's top producer of nuclear energy as early as 2030, reflecting hesitance to build new capacity in Japan and Western nations even as emerging economies move ahead.

China dominates global wind and solar output
Renews, August 27

China continues to be the world’s largest producer of renewable power from wind as well as solar photovoltaics, according to the International Energy Agency’s Key World Energy Statistics report.

Indian state refiners halt oil imports from Chinese cos, sources say
Reuters, August 27

Indian state refiners have stopped buying crude oil from China-linked companies, three sources said, after New Delhi’s recent regulation aimed at restricting imports from countries that it shares a border with.

Face-off offers chance to resolve border row
China Daily, September 3

By Han Hua, Professor of International Studies at Peking University

Both sides' militaries need to exercise more restraint along the disputed border in order to prevent further clashes and put Sino-Indian relations back on the right track.

The Next Front in the India-China Conflict Could Be a Thai Canal
Foreign Policy, September 1

By Salvatore Babones, Adjunct Scholar at the Centre for Independent Studies in Sydney, and an Associate Professor at the University of Sydney

A Thai canal would pose little threat to the United States, its allies, or even India, which can effectively (if expensively) counter Chinese expansionism by upgrading its domestic forward bases in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

In dealing with Chinese power, Delhi needs an internationalism that is rooted in realism
The Indian Express, September 1

By C. Raja Mohan, Director, Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore

Delhi’s pursuit of economic regionalism in East Asia and a multi-polar world in partnership with China and Russia had severely underestimated the economic and political consequences of China’s rapid rise.

India-China standoff: Why the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation still matters for India?
Financial Express, September 1

By Rajan Kumar, Associate Professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University; and Sandeep Tripathi, Assistant Professor at GLA University, Mathura, UP

A prolonged military standoff at the Himalayan border has created a new dilemma for New Delhi’s engagements at the BRICS and the SCO.

India will lose out from its informal boycott of Huawei 5G
CGTN, August 27

By Wamika Kapur, Fellow at Global Policy Insights; and PhD scholar at Yonsei University in South Korea

India must realize its aim of self-reliance is commendable, its 5G stand must not be based on politicizing a technical and security issue.

Why doesn't India have as many tech unicorns as China does?
Channel News Asia, August 26

By Amit Joshi, Professor of AI, Analytics and Marketing Strategy at IMD Business School in Switzerland and Singapore

While the Indian IT sector has successfully created impressive tech clusters and thousands of jobs, growth has mainly come from providing cheaper manpower.

India’s Evolving Maritime Posture in the Indian Ocean: Opportunities for the Gulf
Emirates Diplomatic Academy, August 2020

By Abhijit Singh, Senior Fellow and Head of Maritime Policy Initiative at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.

The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is witnessing the rise of India as a maritime power. With a vital geographic location in South Asia, astride critical sea-lanes, India is gearing to play an important economic and security role in the region. In line with New Delhi’s growing power and regional aspiration, the Indian navy has expanded its operations in the Western Indian Ocean, the Middle East and the Gulf, positioning itself as a ‘regional security provider’. Notwithstanding conjecture about growing India-China rivalry in the Indian Ocean, the Indian navy’s principal objective is the effective policing of the regional commons. India’s regional maritime strategy is aimed primarily at building bridges of friendship, improving partner capability and expanding crises response capacity.