China-India Brief #149

Guest Column

“Enhancing Strategic Mutual Trust”: Decoding Bilateral Relations at the Second Modi-Xi Informal Summit 

By Chris Ogden    

Prime Minister Narendra Modi exchanging gifts with President Xi Jinping, in Mamallapuram, Tamil Nadu on October 12, 2019. 
Photo from Prime Minister's Office of India

The second of the awkwardly titled “Informal Summits” between the leaders of Asia’s two largest states, saw Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping meet in Chennai, India on October 11-12, 2019. Following on from the first of these summits (in Wuhan, China on April 27-28, 2018), the leaders endeavoured “to continue their discussions on overarching issues of bilateral, regional and global importance and to exchange views on deepening [the] India-China Closer Development Partnership” (MEA 2019d). With the aim of building up a closer rapport between Modi and Xi in a more relaxed setting than that offered in other bilateral or multilateral meetings, the two “had an in-depth exchange of views in a friendly atmosphere on overarching, long-term and strategic issues of global and regional importance” (MEA 2019a). The discussions can thus provide an indication of India and China’s common outlooks.

Striving to build upon the “Wuhan Spirit” of the first Informal Summit through the so-called “Chennai Connect” (MEA 2019a), official documents from both the Indian and Chinese side noted a number of ways in which the talks were seen to ameliorate, enhance and inter-twine bilateral relations. Central to these discussions was a shared belief that the casual nature of the summit “opened up possibilities for taking bilateral relations to greater heights” (MEA 2019a), by allowing the two leaders time for face-to-face discussions without normal diplomatic constraints. Finding commonalities from this process were evident via assertions from Xi Jinping who “felt the profound traditional friendship between the two peoples throughout the visit” (PRC Embassy 2019a). The mechanism was regarded as having already enabled a ‘new phase of sound and stable development … [while] the positive effects of the meeting are constantly emerging” (PRC Embassy 2019a), which has been evident since the 2017 Doklam incident.

Such effects encompassed “a historical perspective, a strategic perspective and a realistic perspective” (PRC Embassy 2019b), and these three dimensions pervaded discussions in the bilateral realm. Central to the shared historical narratives was a eulogising of India and China as ‘two major ancient civilizations and developing countries” (PRC Embassy 2019a), as proclaimed by Narendra Modi. With “long and continuous histor[ies]” (MEA 2019b), such heritage was essential for building ties, with their “great traditions … [being] important to enhance dialogue in order to foster cultural understanding between the two peoples” (MEA 2019a). This basis was also seen as a potential new mainstay of their global diplomacy together, whereby “the two countries should jointly advocate and push forward dialogue and exchanges among different civilizations, so as to … continue to produce new glory for Asian civilizations” (PRC Embassy 2019c). Clearly harking to, and referencing, the ‘Asian Century’ of which China and India are essential pillars, these perspectives took on a further didactic and aspirational tone, with both countries’ officials noting how “the wisdom from the two countries’ ancient and profound civilizations can provide inspiration for solving various challenges facing the world today” (PRC Embassy 2019c).

Underpinning these narratives was a joint recognition of the two entities’ contemporary restoration as great powers of significant international influence. Reflecting tropes repeated ad infinitum by generations of leaders in Beijing and New Delhi, but also of aspirations that are nearing attainment, Modi and Xi noted how “the next few years [will] mark a crucial period for China and India,” and that the two countries “must hold the rudder and steer the course … [and map out] a strategic and long-term perspective, inject a strong endogenous impetus into China-India relations, and work together to realize the great rejuvenation of the two civilizations” (PRC Embassy 2019a). From this basis “the two leaders agreed that China and India should respect and learn from each other so as to jointly achieve common development and prosperity” (PRC Embassy 2019d). The Indian side furthermore stated that it “is willing to learn the Chinese side’s successful practices in poverty alleviation, ecological civilization construction and anti-corruption” (PRC Embassy 2019b).

Invoking other collective perspectives—past, present and future—the two leaders also discussed how the two states had “work[ed] together for national independence and liberation [in 1947 and 1949], the pioneering work of jointly advocating the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, and the aspirations of jointly realizing the Chinese dream and the Indian dream” (PRC Embassy 2019b). Such co-operation was crucially seen to rest upon common respect, a degree of strategic realism, and “a positive, pragmatic and open attitude and to enhance appreciation of each other’s policies and actions in line with the general direction of their friendship and cooperation” (MEA 2019a). This sense of objectivity and maturity in recognising the complexities of both Beijing’s and New Delhi’s myriad diplomatic interactions can be essential to avoiding outright competition between them in the coming years.

In this manner, Modi and Xi agreed to “never let [their] differences shadow the overall situation of bilateral cooperation” (PRC Embassy 2019a). In turn, any differences ought to be managed “prudently” (MEA 2019a) via synergy rather than schism, with “the only correct choice of both sides [being] to realize the duet of the Chinese ‘dragon’ and the Indian ‘elephant’” (PRC Embassy 2019a). Modi and Xi further highlighted a number of realistic ways in which closer ties could be enshrined. These included using stable, sensible and pro-active India-China relations to build “a new platform for good-neighborliness and friendliness in South Asia … [and open] up new prospects for regional practical cooperation’ (PRC Embassy 2019b). Significantly for the wider region, this aspect also “stressed that the cooperation can be gradually expanded to other countries in South Asia, Southeast Asia and Africa on the basis of the existing ‘China-India-Afghanistan’ cooperation” (PRC Embassy 2019b), which suggests the beginnings of a much deeper strategic congruence in the region than previously imagined.

In other domains, the two leaders emphasised the need for “mutual trust between the two militaries and the security forces” (MEA 2019c). Such improved linkages would be practical for “enhancing trust, dispelling doubts and strengthening friendly cooperation, [and] carry out … professional cooperation and joint training … [so as to] safeguard regional security and stability” (PRC Embassy 2019a). In terms of trade, a new High-Level Economic and Trade Dialogue mechanism was established to “enhance trade and commercial relations” (MEA 2019a), as well as “seek to build a manufacturing partnership … [and] welcome investment and cooperation of Indian pharmaceutical and information technology companies in China” (PRC Embassy 2019a). More importantly, China stated that it “is ready to take sincere action … [concerning] how to reduce [the bilateral] trade deficit” (MEA 2019c), which has been a long-standing bugbear for India. Concerning border issues, the leaders stated that “the two countries should seek a solution that is fair, reasonable and acceptable to both sides.” Regarding “problems that cannot be solved at the moment,” both sides agreed to “properly manage and control them” (PRC Embassy 2019a). Of particular note, especially in light of the recent abrogation of Article 370, Jammu and Kashmir “was not raised and not discussed” as this was a matter that concerned India’s “internal affairs” (MEA 2019c), which reassured Indian analysts who had feared a further siding by Beijing with Islamabad, and has displayed how pragmatism and stability are China’s preferred approach.

Notwithstanding the informal nature of the summit, which resulted in there being no Joint Statements or Joint Declarations, this relatively new bilateral mechanism does appear to be providing a fertile way for both China and India to discuss their commonalities. By providing a casual and less-pressured environment, the aspirant seeds of their greater long-term collaboration appear to be clearer than ever.

Dr Chris Ogden is Senior Lecturer / Associate Professor in Asian Security at the School of International Relations, University of St Andrews. His latest books include A Dictionary of Politics and International Relations in India (Oxford UP, 2019) and A Dictionary of Politics and International Relations in China (Oxford UP, 2019). 

References

MEA (2019a) "2nd India-China Informal Summit", Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India (October 9). Accessed on October 29 2019 at https://mea.gov.in/incoming-visit-detail.htm?31938/2nd+IndiaChina+Informal+Summit.

MEA (2019b) "Transcript of Media Briefing by Foreign Secretary during Chennai Informal Summit (October 11, 2019)", Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India (October 12). Accessed on October 29 2019 at https://mea.gov.in/incoming-visit-detail.htm?31935/Transcript+of+Media+Briefing+by+Foreign+Secretary+during+Chennai+Informal+Summit+October+11+2019. 

MEA (2019c) "Transcript of Media Briefing by Foreign Secretary on conclusion of Chennai Informal Summit (October 12, 2019)", Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India (October 12). Accessed on October 29 2019 at https://mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/31919/visit+of+president+of+china+to+india+october+1112+2019. 

MEA (2019d) "Visit of President of China to India (October 11-12, 2019)", Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India (October 9). Accessed on October 29 2019 at https://www.mea.gov.in/incoming-visit-detail.htm?31919/Visit+of+President+of+China+to+India+October+1112+2019.

PRC Embassy (2019a) "President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi Continue Their Meeting in Chennai", Embassy of the People's Republic of China in India (October 17). Accessed on October 29 2019 at http://in.china-embassy.org/eng/zywl/t1708740.htm.

PRC Embassy (2019b) "The Road Ahead Is Long and Winding Though, A Start Will Bring An Arrival", Embassy of the People's Republic of China in India (October 17). Accessed on October 29 2019 at http://in.china-embassy.org/eng/zywl/t1708741.htm. 

PRC Embassy (2019c) "Xi Jinping Meets with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India", Embassy of the People's Republic of China in India (October 17). Accessed on October 29 2019 at http://in.china-embassy.org/eng/zywl/t1708738.htm.

The views expressed in the article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy or the National University of Singapore.

News Reports

Bilateral relations

India, China finalise 70 activities to celebrate 70 years of diplomatic ties
The Economic Times, November 22

The events were finalised in line with the understanding reached by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping during their Second Informal Summit at Mamallapuram on October 11-12 this year.

MP: China has encroached on 50-60km in Arunachal
The Times of India, November 20

BJP member Tapir Gao told Lok Sabha on Tuesday (November 19) that “if a repeat of Doklam takes place, it will happen in Arunachal Pradesh because China has encroached 50-60 km area of the state.”

India, China Agree To Hold Next Round Of Border Talks
NDTV, November 15

According to a statement by the Ministry of External Affairs, PM Modi and President Xi "noted that the Special Representatives will have another meeting on matters relating to the boundary question."

China objects to Rajnath Singh's visit to Arunachal Pradesh
The Economic Times, November 15

China on Friday (November 15) objected to the visit of Defence Minister Rajnath Singh to Arunachal Pradesh, saying the Chinese government never acknowledged the "so-called" northeast Indian state, which it claims to be a part of South Tibet.

1962 conflict with China significantly damaged India’s standing at world stage: Jaishankar
The Times of India, November 14

Delivering the fourth Ramnath Goenka memorial lecture, external affairs minister S. Jaishankar also said the Simla agreement of 1972 resulted in a revanchist Pakistan continuing problems in Jammu and Kashmir.

News Reports

China and India in the Region

Chinese ships and radar boost navies of Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka
South China Morning Post, November 23

Anti-stealth radar seen at Pakistan’s airbase, while China builds ships for its navy, refurbishes others in Bangladeshi colours and gifts vessel to Sri Lanka. Latest supplies come amid suggestions that China is encircling India by developing relationships with its neighbours.

“Share India's Concerns”, Says US On China's Belt And Road Project
NDTV, November 22

The US has extended its support to India's opposition to China's ambitious One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative, saying it shares New Delhi's concern over the multi-billion dollar project while questioning the economic rationale behind it.

ADMM-Plus countries wrap up counter-terrorism drill
Xinhua, November 21

A joint counter-terrorism actual-troop drill among ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus) countries wrapped up Thursday in the Southern Theater Command in China.

A hospital and clean water: China on the charm offensive in Sri Lanka
Reuters, November 20

The hospital, specializing in kidney-related diseases, is helping China gain popular support in a country where its mega-projects have added to rising debt and raised concerns about excessive economic and political leverage.

Nepali prime minister inaugurates China funded hydro project in Nepal
Xinhua, November 18

Nepal's Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli on Monday inaugurated a China-funded 60MW Hydropower Project which had started producing electricity recently.

News Reports

Trade and Economy

China's economic health important to world: IMF chief
Xinhua, November 24

China has been a major growth engine for the world economy, and its economic health bears global significance, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Xinhua in a recent interview.

India becomes top download market for TikTok
Nikkei Asian Review, November 21

According to a report by mobile intelligence company Sensor Tower, Indians accounted for 466.8 million downloads of the TikTok app, amounting to a third of the total.

China terminates anti-dumping duties on pyridine imports from India, Japan
CGTN, November 20

Starting Thursday (November 21), anti-dumping duties on pyridine imports from India and Japan will be ended, according to a statement on China’s Ministry of Commerce website.

India’s Decision to Leave RCEP Is a ‘Historical Mistake’, Chinese Experts State
The Wire, November 16

“We all think that India has made historical mistake. India should join RCEP,” said director of China Institute at Fudan University, professor Zhang Weiwei.

In swipe at US, BRICS hit out at protectionism
Channel News Asia, November 15

Five of the biggest emerging economies railed against protectionism on Thursday (November 14) as they vowed to overcome “significant challenges” facing multilateralism, in a swipe at US tariffs and unilateral action.

India, China to focus on efforts to sort out trade-related issues
Hindustan Times, November 14

During a meeting on the margins of the BRICS (Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa) Summit in Brasilia on Wednesday (November 13), Xi said China welcomes the import of “high quality” goods from India. The two leaders agreed on the importance of a close dialogue on trade and investment, India’s external affairs ministry said in a statement.

News Reports

Energy and Environment

Clean Energy Investment In Developing Nations Slumps As Financing In China Slows
Bloomberg NEF, November 25

Investment in new wind, solar, and other non-large hydro renewables projects in China fell to $86 billion in 2018 from $122 billion in 2017. Inflows to clean energy projects in India and Brazil slipped $2.4 billion and $2.7 billion, respectively from the year prior.

China’s move to raise rare earth production to weigh on global prices, deal blow to projects in US, Australia
South China Morning Post, November 25

Surging rare-earth production in China is presenting a new challenge to budding efforts in the US and elsewhere to undercut the Asian giant’s dominance in a market for exotic materials used in everything from smartphones to fighter jets.

India pollution: Supreme Court says world 'laughing' at smog issues
BBC, November 25

The court came down heavily on federal and state governments over what it sees as a failure to curb pollution levels.

China Can Be Rich, Climate Neutral by 2050, Group Says
Bloomberg, November 22

China’s high savings and investment rate allow for the spending required to meet the twin goals, according to a report by The Energy Transitions Commission, a global coalition of executives from across the energy landscape committed to the Paris climate agreement.

India has increased coal capacity by 82.3 Gw, China by 290 GW: Report
Business Standard, November 20

A Global Energy Monitor report from January 2018 to June 2019 said countries outside of China decreased their total coal power capacity by 8.1 GW, while China increased its coal fleet by 42.9 GW.

Analyses

China and India must address causes of migration to stop human traffic
Nikkei Asian Review, November 25

By Ashok Swain, Professor of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Sweden

In a globalized world, it is almost impossible for Asian countries to isolate themselves. They must adopt multifaceted, integrated and comprehensive approaches toward migration.

China’s dam-building programme must take neighbours into account
South China Morning Post, November 24

By Brahma Chellaney, Geostrategist and winner of the Bernard Schwartz Award

Since China began damming the Mekong, droughts have become more frequent and intense in downriver countries. By diverting river water to its mega-dams, China has emerged as Asia’s upstream water controller, giving it great leverage.

BRICS committed to building a community with a shared future
China Daily, November 21

By Wang Lei, Director of the Center for BRICS Cooperation Studies at Beijing Normal University

As beneficiaries of globalization and representatives of developing countries, BRICS countries should deepen their cooperation in order to reform the global economic governance system and build a more reasonable and sustainable global economic order.

How India should deal with Gotabaya’s Sri Lanka
Hindustan Times, November 19

By Constantino Xavier, Fellow at Brookings India, New Delhi

After the positive political developments in Bangladesh and the Maldives last year, Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s significant victory in Sri Lanka poses a new challenge for India’s efforts to reconnect with the region. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ambition to shape the Indo-Pacific great game will fail unless he gets Gotabaya to play ball and keep China at bay.

Mongolia is seeking greener pastures with the US and India to balance China’s influence
South China Morning Post, November 17

By Patrick Mendis, Distinguished Visiting Professor of Global Affairs, National Chengchi University, Senior Fellow, Taiwan Centre for Security Studies in Taipei; and Itgelt Bat-Ochir, final-year student of international relations, University of Pecs in Hungary.

Mongolia, with its large, resource-rich land mass and small population, is economically dependent on China. Will its courtship of India and the US pay off?

Books and Journals

India-China Tensions Amidst Asymmetry: A Strategic Perspective
Delhi Policy Group Policy Brief, Vol. IV, Issue 27 (November 2019)

By Ambassador Hemant Krishan Singh and Brig. Arun Sahgal

Ambassador Hemant Krishan Singh is the Director General of the Delhi Policy Group; Brig. Arun Sahgal is a Senior Fellow at the Delhi Policy Group.

India-China relations continue to be tense and strained, despite Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping having met seventeen times, including at two informal summits held at Wuhan last year and more recently at Mamallapuram. Both informal summits took place against the backdrop of brewing bilateral tensions. The Wuhan meeting came after the Doklam crisis, when a major faceoff took place between Chinese and Indian forces in a third country, Bhutan. The informal Summit near Chennai was held amidst growing strains in bilateral relations over the abrogation of Article 370 in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir and Chinese claims of India violating its territorial sovereignty in Tibet. It is clear China's hyperventilation on this issue and forcing an informal Security Council meeting on the situation in J&K were both attempts to weigh in on the side of its proxy Pakistan, which has been vitiating the regional situation over J&K. Interestingly, even the formal announcement of the Mamallapuram meeting was delayed upto the last minute, presumably on the pretext of a long planned Indian military exercise taking place over 100 Kms from the Line of Actual Control in India's Northeast.