CAG Book Talk

Theorizing Hedging: Explaining Shifts and Variations in Alignment Choices

Hedging, rather than balancing or bandwagoning, is the modal behavior of non-great powers under uncertainty. Yet despite its prevalence as a state alignment choice, hedging remains an undertheorized subject in the study of international relations. This book offers one of the first theoretical works on strategic hedging in world politics. Conceptually, the book traces hedging’s multidisciplinary roots as an instinctive human behavior, arguing that strategic hedging is best understood as an insurance-seeking behavior under high uncertainty, which entails three defining attributes: active neutrality, inclusive diversification, and adaptive offsets. Theoretically, the book develops a two-level framework to explain when, how, and why states hedge rather than balance or bandwagon. Empirically, it tests the propositions against a set of Indo-Pacific countries at different junctures. The book concludes that structural-level conditions largely explain shifts in alignment decisions (e.g., from non-hedging to hedging, or vice versa), while domestic factors account for variation in the specific forms hedging takes (heavy versus light hedging).

 


Block B Seminar Room 3-2

469 Bukit Timah Road

Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy

Singapore 259756

Tue 25 August 2026
10:30 AM - 12:00 PM

Kuik Cheng-Chwee

Kuik Cheng-Chwee

Professor of International Relations, National University of Malaysia (UKM)

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Chin-Hao Huang

Chin-Hao Huang

Director of CAG and Associate Professor in Political Science at LKYSPP

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