Command of Commerce: America’s Enduring Economic Power Advantage Over China

This book provides a systematic reevaluation of the balance of economic power between the U.S. and China. The conventional wisdom is that China’s economic power is very close to America’s and that Washington cannot undertake a broad economic cutoff of China without hurting itself as much or more. This book demonstrates the conventional wisdom is wrong on both fronts. In peacetime, America’s lead in economic power over China is more dramatic than commonly appreciated because the vast majority of firms that drive global commerce, particularly in high-technology sectors, are based in the U.S. and its allies. America’s advantage in economic power over China would be even more marked in wartime. Our analysis indicates Washington could impose massive, disproportionate harm on Beijing if it were to impose a broad economic cutoff of China in cooperation with its allies or via a distant naval blockade. Across six scenarios, China’s short-term economic losses from a broad cutoff range from being 5 to 11 times higher than America’s. And in the long run, America and almost all its allies would return to previous economic growth levels; in contrast, China’s growth would be permanently degraded.