On December 5, 2022, the Centre on Asia and Globalisation (CAG) organized a roundtable dialogue to discuss Indonesia’s chairmanship of ASEAN for the coming year.
Panellists Annisa Natalegawa, Managing Director & Partner at Asia Group Advisors, and Evan Laksmana, Senior Research Fellow with the CAG led the discussion, moderated by Drew Thompson, Visiting Senior Research Fellow, CAG.
Indonesia’s chairmanship of the G20 culminated in the successful head-of-state summit in Bali November 15-16, providing President Jokowi with a platform to showcase Indonesia and his convening power, as well as mark a key milestone of his eight years as head of state. Riding this political high, Indonesia will chair ASEAN for the next year in what is arguably a more important political platform for Indonesia.
Critically, Indonesia will also spend 2023 gearing up for presidential elections, with no clear front runner emerging to succeed Jokowi, who far from being a lame duck has shored up his political support amongst his base, and manoeuvred to prevent political infighting that would otherwise prevent the government from effectively governing. The ASEAN chairmanship will provide a solid platform for Jokowi to be the statesman as contenders campaign to succeed him, offering him opportunities to develop cautious, deliberate messages that further Indonesian and ASEAN interests.
ASEAN and its member states will confront key political and economic challenges in the coming year, most notably Myanmar. Other key challenges confronting ASEAN include the complexities of US-China competition, the ongoing energy transition, food security, inflation and global economic headwinds, including declining demand in the US and Europe.
While Indonesia is expected to bring considerable political heft to its chairmanship, ASEAN’s effectiveness as an organization will depend not only on the chairman’s political will, but also his drive and willingness to press other members, as well as the willingness of those other members to reach meaningful consensus around sensitive issues.
Indonesia will be in the thrall of political campaigning next year, which will influence messaging, political themes, and political attention of Jokowi and the incumbent government. Election issues will primarily be domestic, not foreign policy challenges, though President Jokowi could still ideally develop a robust ASEAN agenda to address critical foreign policy issues. The Myanmar crisis will likely be a key issue at the first Foreign Ministers retreat in late January, likely with modest goals to manage, rather than resolve the issue of transition back to democratic governance. Timor Leste’s accession process will likely also be a priority for Indonesia, as it works with other ASEAN states to develop the agreed process and metrics for full membership, while learning the ASEAN ropes through its observership. Timor Leste’s formal and full accession could take years to achieve, but Indonesia will likely seek to hammer out the agreed framework, metrics and protocols during its chairmanship. Other key initiatives could include the development of an ASEAN Maritime Outlook, and a defence concept paper of the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific.
But more importantly, Indonesia’s chairmanship is likely to carry over key agenda from the G-20 (primarily energy transition, health infrastructure, and digital economy) and focus more on economic processes and activities—as reflected in the chairmanship motto “epicentrum of growth”. An Indo-Pacific infrastructure summit will likely be put on the calendar, and critical issues such as inflation, green energy, carbon tax, and CO2 sequestration issues will feature in meetings throughout 2023.These initiatives compensate for scant progress made in difficult issues including the Myanmar crisis and the South China Sea Code of Conduct negotiations with China which are stalled, and projected to endure for years to come.
2023 will be a particularly political year in Southeast Asia. Campaigning in Indonesia is kicking off for their 2024 elections, and there will be elections taking place in 2023 in Thailand and Cambodia, complicating political calculations, political calendars, and the ability to reach the all important ASEAN consensus on critical issues that Indonesia will face during its chairmanship.
The CAG is grateful to the New Zealand High Commission for offering to host the roundtable.