School Research Seminar

Do Emission Trading Schemes work well in developing countries? An empirical analysis of CO2 prices in China

China has established seven ETS pilots mainly for reducing emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) since 2013. Compared to more mature ETS such as the one in the European Union, Chinese ETS remains an explorative practice. Given that there are very few empirical studies on the price dynamics of China’s CO2 emission allowance and considering that ETS will continue to play an important role in CO2 emission reduction in China, this study investigates the implementation of the seven ETSs in China, addressing the responses of CO2 emission allowance prices to energy prices, macroeconomic indicators and institutional events. 
The empirical analysis shows that the seven ETS pilots were all informationally inefficient, with high price volatility and low liquidity during 2013-2016, even though some pilots are doing better than others. The prices of CO2 emission allowances are mainly influenced by their own historical prices. In Beijing, Hubei and Guangdong, the price returns of energy prices have significant correlations with the price returns of CO2 emission allowances. Additionally, in Beijing, Guangdong and Shanghai, price returns significantly decreased following the deadlines for submitting valid allowances in 2014, implying the influence of institutional events on price changes. This study contributes to the understanding of the policy instrument of ETS by adding empirical evidence in the context of China. The development of ETS in China is a learning-by-doing process, which needs more empirical studies and consistent regulatory updates in order to deliver a long-run sustainable outcome.

Seminar Room 2-2,
Level 2, Manasseh Meyer,
Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy,
National University of Singapore


Thu 12 April 2018
12:15 PM - 01:30 PM

Li Lili

Li Lili

PhD Candidate Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy

More about speaker

Sonia Akter

Sonia Akter

Assistant Dean (Academic Affairs) and Assistant Professor, LKYSPP

Seats are limited and will be available on a first-come, first-served basis. Kindly email Siew Ming at to register your interest for this seminar

Please note that by clicking on the registration link above, you will be directly forwarded to a 3rd party independent site, which is not developed nor maintained by NUS. The website could be subject to data protection and privacy practices and you are encouraged to examine them before proceeding to share your personal data. NUS will collect, use and/or disclose the personal data submitted through this 3rd party independent site for the purpose of scheduling, processing, administration and/or management of the event. Please note that photography, audio and video recording may occur during this event. All photography, audio and video recording may be used by the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and the National University of Singapore for education, marketing, promotional and/or publication purposes. If you do not wish to have your image recorded or published, for compelling and legitimate grounds relating to your particular situation, please inform our staff.