Never in the history of humankind have nearly 3 billion people of the world been under lockdown. The clock is fast ticking and the Covid-19 pandemic is surging exponentially as the coronavirus wreaks havoc globally. Already declared as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), Covid-19 has impacted nearly 200 countries and territories, taking away over 250, 000 lives in a span of 3 months. From Wuhan to Tehran, Milan to New York, Paris to London, many major international cities are now under massive attack.
World leaders are trying their best to tackle the crisis and sadly the ideas might run out soon as international organisations like WHO also struggle to cope with the Covid-19 outbreak. An unassuming virus has challenged the world's leadership capabilities and inadvertently led to governments and corporations reflecting on getting their priorities right, especially with regard to the state of public health systems all over the world.
As nations continue battling the coronavirus and racing to develop a vaccine at the earliest possible date, we observe 5 emerging trends that the world will see because of this pandemic:
1. Global slowdown and Loss of Jobs
Covid-19 has impacted over 200 countries around the world and every nation has suffered both in terms of human loss and economic slowdown. The world's 2 largest economies, the US and China, have been locked in a trade war for more than a year now and with the pandemic, both economies have suffered due to a lockdown of factories and shutdown of production lines, etc. The US recently recorded the highest unemployment rate in decades and their slowdown will have a direct impact on the global economy. Global financial markets have lost nearly $15 trillion worth of wealth since the start of the Covid-19 outbreak. Volatility indexes are also very high, reflecting the uncertainty and anxiety in the markets.
The International Labour Organization (ILO) reported that nearly 195 million people have already lost their jobs since the start of the year 2020 and an additional 25 million jobs have been lost after the Covid-19 outbreak. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also reported that the Covid-19 pandemic is projected to shrink the world output by 3%. In the immediate future, there looks to be a world recession with a severity worse than that of the 2008 global financial crisis.
2. Increasing Inequalities and policy uncertainties
The IMF has referred to Covid-19 as "Humanity's Darkest Hour". The Covid-19 pandemic has created chaos and anxiety for which no world leader had a ready-made solution. More than half of the IMF member countries have requested for emergency funding from IMF so far. Globalisation has abruptly halted as international boundaries are restricted and global supply chains have shrunk. Until a vaccine is found, the uncertainty among nations will increase, leading to a possible policy paralysis when it comes to decisions about extensions of lockdowns, choosing economic revival vs. risk of virus transmission, etc.
In the wake of the pandemic, nations may indulge in blame games and forging alliances. The process of fighting Covid-19 and in a post Covid-19 world has exposed a widening of social and economic inequalities worldwide. These times will test the governance, administration and vision of all world leaders. The role of key international institutions, especially WHO will be debated and there could be possible drastic changes made in functioning of these institutions hereafter.
3. Changes in social behaviour
Measures such as an extended lockdown period, isolation, and enforced social distancing can impact the fabric of society in general. People might develop anxiety due to increased uncertainty, job insecurity, or lack of social support, leading to a rise in alcoholism, divorce, suicides, domestic violence, drug abuse or other harmful behaviours.
In the aftermath of Covid-19, the idea of holiday travel will also change as airport security becomes more stringent, surveillance in public places will become more intensive, and working from home may become the norm for most of the workforce. As such, governments will have to clearly set out action plans for dealing with the mental well-being and health of their citizens.
4. Paradigm shift in Governance
A positive externality of the Covid-19 pandemic for many highly urbanised global cities was reduced pollution levels, decreased levels of industrial activity, less waste and toxins produced. Environmental conservation, digitalisation of informal sectors in developing countries, carrying out business remotely and with minimum mobility, are some of the trends that will emerge in governance at various levels, both in public and private sectors.
Governments, especially in developing countries, will have to begin to focus on population control measures, invest more in public health systems, develop IT infrastructure and reduce carbon emissions. The concept of a Universal Basic Income for all households will reappear again in policy debates.
Governments will also invest in defence mechanisms, particularly those geared towards combating germ fare or bio warfare, setting up specialised agencies for these possible threats. Increased funding will go into professional training, R & D and infrastructure of countering possible virus attacks or related ones in the future.
5. New World Order
The Covid-19 pandemic has exposed several weaknesses of the West. New York, considered one of the most powerful and successful global cities, has seen one of the highest infection and deaths rates of the virus. Many European countries such as Italy and Spain have also been hit hard as the Covid-19 crisis overwhelmed healthcare systems and communities.
However, Asian nations like Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have shown preparedness and speed in responding to the crisis. In the wake of Covid-19, countries such as Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Philippines would be eyeing firms in search of new manufacturing destinations and preparing their economies as newer manufacturing hubs. China has managed to survive and emerge from the pandemic China, while India will also recover and create opportunities. China and India will now become very important players for world trade and international cooperation. A shift in power from the West to East is clearly afoot, with a New World Order in the making.
The ongoing crisis presents an opportunity for us to reflect on our priorities at the government, family or individual level. At an institutional level, it's time we invest more resources into our public health systems, R & D, infrastructure and training health professionals. At the individual level, all the citizens must reflect on our idea of what constitutes a good quality of life – be it lifestyle, consumption levels, respecting and conserving nature over our dependence on technology. The pandemic has definitely been an eye-opener for many world leaders who are often in the race for economic success and expansion. In the face of this crisis, every global citizen and world leader must truly understand the fragility of human life and what it means to coexist as humans amidst other species on this planet, elsewise it would not take longer for another pandemic to create a bigger pandemonium.
Photo: World Bank Photo Collection