Missile Engagements Across the Himalayas: Assessing Nuclear Risks of Standoff War in Sino-Indian Relations

By Masahiro Kurita

The resurgence of the missile force idea in Delhi, alongside last year’s India-Pakistan conflict, raises an important question: can a similar form of standoff warfare be conducted in the Sino-India dyad as calibrated conflict without risking nuclear escalation? While the contours of the missile force envisioned by India remain unclear, some observers suggest that missile engagements might emerge as a form of limited warfare between China and India. However, managing risks of nuclear escalation in such a form of limited conflict in the Sino-India dyad can prove more complicated than in the India-Pakistan context.

Steering ASEAN amid Turbulent Waters

By Alec Julian Andrade Templonuevo

Philippine domestic divisions and public “word wars” with China risk undermining Manila’s credibility as 2026 ASEAN Chair and eroding ASEAN centrality at a critical moment. Effective leadership will require projecting internal coherence, rallying broader ASEAN unity among claimant and non-claimant states, and converting the Code of Conduct pledge into concrete, legally grounded diplomatic progress.

India-ASEAN Relations in an Evolving Strategic Landscape

By Srinath Raghavan

India and ASEAN are marking 2026 as the “Year of Maritime Cooperation”. The two sides are keen to promote and deepen maritime exchanges in both commercial and defence domains. They had held the first ASEAN-India Maritime Exercise (AIME) in 2023; a second edition is currently in the works. Such targeted initiatives are aimed at imparting momentum to a relationship that is perceived as flagging—even in comparison to India’s own bilateral ties with countries in the region. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision not to attend in-person the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur in October 2025 was seen as underlining the dip in New Delhi’s interest.

Can Small States and Middle Powers Shape the Indo-Pacific?

By Denis Hew

Navigating intensifying geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions, the Indo-Pacific region stands at an inflection point in a rapidly changing global order. The region, long defined by dynamism and promise, now faces compounding uncertainties. Intensifying US-China rivalry, economic fragmentation, technological competition, rising trade protectionism, and contested maritime boundaries are driving regional volatility. Against this backdrop, a critical strategic question emerges: Can small states and middle powers shape the Indo-Pacific’s future? Do they have the agency to address these emerging challenges and navigate an increasingly hostile global landscape?