Author(s): Arisha Parvez, Marjan Begum, Preeti Chandrakumar Patil
Abstract: This essay reframes the South China Sea challenge beyond traditional sovereignty disputes, focusing on climate-induced displacement as an emerging security threat. With projections of up to 48.4 million internal climate migrants in the East Asia and Pacific region by 2050, it argues that ASEAN must integrate climate mobility into its maritime governance architecture, proposing a Climate Mobility Protocol, expanded mandates for the AHA Centre, designated "climate mobility corridors," and new financing mechanisms. The essay frames managed migration not only as adaptation and a path to resilience, but as a strategic necessity to prevent escalating humanitarian crises from contributing to broader regional instability.
Author(s): Alec Julian Andrade Templonuevo
Abstract: This essay examines how the Philippines' domestic political fragmentation, particularly the public rift between President Marcos Jr. and Vice President Duterte over China policy, threatens to undermine Manila's credibility as 2026 ASEAN Chair and risks delaying progress on Code of Conduct negotiations in the South China Sea. Alongside this, it highlights how broader regional disunity and hedging behaviour among ASEAN members have weakened collective leverage and consensus-based decision-making. It argues that the Philippines must adopt a whole-of-government approach to project consistency, while non-claimant states like Indonesia and Singapore and fellow claimant states should share leadership to prevent ASEAN's collective agenda from being held hostage to any single member's internal politics.
Abstract: This essay focuses on the growing risk of unintended escalation from grey-zone incidents involving coast guards, fishing fleets, and resource competition. Arguing that deterrence-centric strategies risk being counterproductive, it proposes that Southeast Asian states shift from pursuing elusive territorial settlements to technology-enabled, issue-specific maritime governance. This includes enhancing Maritime Domain Awareness through satellite and vessel-tracking systems, adopting modular cooperation among willing states, and partnering with non-escalatory external actors like the EU for civilian surveillance capacity. Crucially, the approach deliberately separates day-to-day maritime governance on fisheries, environmental protection, and maritime safety from unresolved sovereignty disputes, allowing functional cooperation to proceed regardless of territorial disagreements.
Congratulations again to all the winners, and thank you to the faculty and students for their warm support!
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