Most observers – at least in the West – agree that the twenty-first century has been particularly tumultuous. But while some explain the volatility of our times by reference to historical analogies, e.g. moments of power transition in the twentieth century, others claim that we are in a moment of polycrisis for which there is no precedent. In this talk I split the difference: it is wrong to assume the twenty-first century will resemble the twentieth, but there are other historical precedents we can use to better think about our current predicament.