America and Asia: Has Trump Changed History Forever?

Lamentations for the international liberal order and calls from Canadian and European leaders to prepare for a post-American world are dramatic, but are they grounded in a thorough assessment of the structure of international relations or the core drivers of American engagement in the world? Donald Trump’s policies on tariffs and foreign affairs are the most disruptive in modern memory, but they are also unpopular with the American people. And while trust in the United States is the lowest on record in countries like Japan or Australia, support for alliance with the United States in those countries is the highest on record. At moments of apparent transformation in international affairs it is important to assess which changes are enduring and structural and which are not. Donald Trump thrives on unpredictability and provocation which are anathema to building partnerships in the world, but that does not necessarily mean that the next Congress or the next presidency will follow course. In fact, history suggests the opposite. Nevertheless, not all policies or institutions will return to the norm. There will be an unpredictability to any restoration of predictability in American foreign policy. Strategic partners like Singapore will have to carefully position themselves to have agency in this unfolding (and very American) process of deconstruction and renewal.