China-India Brief #27

Guest Column

China-India Relations…if Narendra Modi Wins the Indian Elections

By Kanti Prasad Bajpai

By all accounts, Narendra Modi, of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is poised to win power in the Indian general elections which will end on May 12. By May 16, the results of the elections will be known. Almost every poll suggests that Modi will win somewhere between 230-250 seats, just short of the majority of 272. If we go by the size of the crowds at his election rallies, he could do much better than that and win a majority without any coalition partners. If so, he will be the first person to do this since Rajiv Gandhi did it in 1984 shortly after his mother, Indira Gandhi, was assassinated.

What are the possible implications of a Modi victory for China-India relations?

First of all, Modi’s general stance on foreign policy is important. While there is great partisanship and criticism of domestic politics in India, on foreign policy there is much greater consensus, and there is a tendency not to embarrass the government of the day on external issues or to overturn the policies of the predecessor government. Therefore, Modi is not likely to depart enormously from the general lines of Indian foreign policy over the past several governments including the Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh governments. This will be the case for China-India relations as well.

Secondly, having said this, BJP governments have a somewhat different style and approach. They certainly talk tougher and while they are committed to using diplomacy and negotiations to advance India’s interests, they like to do so from a position of strength – velvet hand in iron glove. In addition, BJP governments are much more likely to walk away from negotiations. The Congress is less likely to be concerned about both things. It does not necessarily talk tough or wait till it is in a position of relative strength; nor does it tend to walk away from negotiations. The Vajpayee government first tested nuclear weapons and then reached out to Pakistan, China, and the US. After the attack on India’s parliament in 2001, Vajpayee mobilized the entire Indian Army, for six months. When Mumbai was attacked, the Manmohan government preferred to resort far more to diplomacy. In a recent interview with Times Now in India, Modi hinted at just such an approach as a touchstone of his policy orientation. So also, the BJP in the end walked away from the nuclear talks with the US in the aftermath of the 1998 tests while the Congress stuck doggedly to talks and finally produced a nuclear deal with Washington. Modi might well do the same if he does not fairly quickly get what he wants.

Thirdly, BJP governments seem to be more attentive to trade and economic aspects of India’s external policy. They do have their economic nationalists, especially those from the RSS, but they are sensitive in general to the needs of the private sector. Trade and investment is important for India’s growth. Modi pays great attention to the private sector and cultivates big business – some have said he does far too much of this. At any rate, Indian business and foreign multinationals have good relations with him and many are backing him in the election campaign. Given that China-India trade is now around the US$60 billion mark and more, Modi will want to encourage trade. He will, as previous governments have done, ask China to do something to reduce the trade deficit which is running to US$20 billion. Modi will also encourage Chinese investment in India, a move that the UPA government had begun, especially in infrastructure which he considers to be vital for sustained economic growth. His emphasis in Gujarat in providing reliable electricity supplies and in building a good road network as well as port facilities indicates that infrastructure is high on his list.

Thirdly, as for China specifically, Modi has built up an economic and political relationship with Beijing. Gujarat under Modi has hosted several Chinese delegations and has sent delegations to China. Modi himself has been to China four times. He has noted that India has much to learn from China; but he has also said that China can learn things from the so-called Gujarat model of development. China identified Modi quite early on as someone it could cultivate – one reason for this is the fact that the US refused to give Modi a visa and Beijing saw an opportunity to get closer to him as a result. Modi will probably also want to build a social relationship with China, that is, to encourage greater interaction between the two societies. He is very supportive of tourism, and he may well try to loosen visa regulations for Chinese businessmen, technicians, and visitors more generally.

Fourthly, we must pay attention to Modi the man and his general approach and psychology. Modi wants to be Prime Minister and to lead India more than anyone in the country. It is his greatest ambition. He would like to be Prime Minister for a very long time. That cannot be said of any other Indian politician, and certainly not anyone from the Congress Party. He enjoys the exercise of power and he loves the reputation of being a tough administrator, decisive, and someone who is constantly looking for ideas by which to improve governance. He is an excellent orator. He speaks mostly in Gujarati and Hindi but understands English and can speak the language. Although he grew up in the Hindu organization, the RSS, he is not particularly ideological in day-to-day governance. He is pragmatic, gets to the core of issues, and likes to get on with things. Modi is also arrogant. He refers constantly to his accomplishments and what he has done for Gujarat, leaving no one in any doubt that the state’s progress is due to his presence and policies.

What does this mean for his foreign policy and China policy in particular? He will want to appear to stand tough on China issues – some of his rhetoric during the campaign in northeastern India near the border indicated this. However, he will also be pragmatic. He has been to China and he knows just how far ahead of India it is. He will not risk provoking China beyond a point. He will listen to his foreign policy and security bureaucracy, but since he has his own China experience and since at the end of the day he relies on his own judgment, he will not leave it to them to make China policy. He will want to put his own stamp on the policy. It is quite possible that one of his first trips abroad will be to China to make clear to the US and other Western countries that he remembers China’s courtesy to him. That said, he has made clear that he is prepared to do business with the West.

Will Modi be India’s Richard Nixon and from a right-wing position and from a position of political strength in India after winning the elections, will he try to do something more dramatic than merely increasing economic interactions with China and managing the security relationship? This will of course depend on larger geopolitical and political calculations, including the attitude and willingness of Xi Jinping and the Chinese leadership. Over the past decade, Beijing has repeatedly made clear that it does not think that a dramatic breakthrough is achievable with India no the border quarrel. There are signs that Xi Jinping wants to move more quickly, but just how quickly is unclear. Would it be better for Modi to try for a breakthrough earlier rather than later? A lot depends on how his government does domestically. There is a good chance that Modi will be at least a two-term prime minister, with a ten-year stint. After Congress’s disastrous second term, the Indian electorate may turn decisively to Modi. If he does a reasonable job in his first term, he is likely to get a second. With two terms ahead of him, he may want to leave a breakthrough on China to the second term.

It would be safe to predict that Modi will more or less stick to the fundamentals of Indian foreign policy and China policy in particular; but given his China interactions and his desire constantly to appear strong, decisive, and effective, he has an incentive to try to break out of the mould.

Kanti Bajpai is Vice-Dean for Research at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, Singapore.

The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy or the National University of Singapore.

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News Reports

Bilateral relations

Armies of India, China discuss implementation of border pacts
Business Standard, April 22
Against the backdrop of incidents of incursions by Chinese troops along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), armies of India and China today discussed the implementation of border pacts to maintain peace and tranquility along the international boundary.

India taking part in Western Pacific Naval meet in China
Zee News, April 22
India and over 140 other countries are taking part in a biennial conference of the Western Pacific Naval Symposium (WPNS) which opened in the eastern Chinese port of Qingdao Tuesday. This is the first time that China, one of the 12 founding members of WPNS, is hosting the symposium. India is an observer in the WPNS. Participants will discuss and vote on whether to accept Pakistan as a WPNS observer at the symposium.

BJP spells out China policy, says will make efforts to better ties with Beijing
The Indian Express, April 22
Terming China as an “old friend” of India, BJP has sought to assure Beijing that it will make efforts to resolve the boundary dispute through amicable dialogue and ensure “better” bilateral relations if the party wins the general election. “Most foreign policies of any country never change with the change of establishment or government. As far as China is concerned, it is our old friend. Economies of both countries depend on each other’s trust,” BJP Vice President Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi told China’s state-run Global Times in an interview.

India, China agree to deepen naval ties after landmark exercise
The Hindu, April 26
As the Indian Navy’s INS Shivalik prepared to leave Qingdao port on Friday after a six-day stay in China, both countries declared that the missile frigate’s visit had gone a long way in deepening strategic trust between two navies that are increasingly coming into contact on the high seas. Officials on both sides said the Shivalik’s visit and participation at the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) 65th anniversary celebrations – marked by first-ever maritime exercises involving 7 nations in China – had sent a strong signal of India’s keenness to deepen navy-to-navy links with China.

India-China Business Meet Held in Shanghai
Outlook, April 23
Top Chinese businesses took part in the “India-China Business and Investment Forum” organised in Shanghai to discuss opportunities for investment in India for Chinese companies. The forum was organised by the Indian Consulate in Shanghai in association with the Council of the World’s Investment Summit held in Shanghai yesterday. About 80 participants drawn from various business sectors, representatives of Chinese chambers of commerce and industry and potential investors in and around Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang attended the Investment Forum, a press release from Shanghai Consulate said.

India, China DGMOs Discuss Border Pact
The Indian Express, April 23
The two sides exchanged views on issues of mutual interest such as maintenance of peace and tranquility along the LAC India and China on Tuesday held their first-ever Director General of Military Operations-level meeting, which discussed ways to implement the Border Defence Cooperation Agreement (BDCA) signed during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Beijing in October. And it was an eight-member delegation led by People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Deputy Chief of General Staff Lt Gen Qi Jiangua, which represented the Communist nation at the DGMO-level dialogue.

Indian army chief expresses willingness to expand coordination, exchanges with Chinese military
Xinhua, April 23
Indian Army Chief General Bikram Singh has expressed his willingness to expand coordination and exchanges with China’s People’s Liberation Army to maintain peace and tranquility in the border regions of the two countries, said official sources with the Chinese Embassy. During a meeting Tuesday with Qi Jianguo, deputy chief of General Staff of the People’s Liberation Army of China here, Bikram, who is also chair of the committee of chiefs of staff of the Indian armed forces, said the two armed forces are faced with new opportunities of developing relations during the “Year of Exchanges” between India and China.

Senior Chinese officer calls for closer military cooperation with India
Global Times, April 23
A visiting senior Chinese army officer called on the Chinese and Indian militaries to forge closer ties by expanding exchanges and cooperation in various fields. Qi Jianguo, deputy chief of the General Staff of the People’s Liberation Army, made the remarks when meeting here with Bikram Singh, chief of the Army Staff of the Indian Army. China and India are the two largest developing countries, and bilateral cooperation not only benefits both nations but contributes to global peace and stability, Qi said. He called for earnest implementation of the border defense cooperation agreement the two countries signed during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s official visit to China in October 2013.

India, China discuss implementation of border pacts
The Hindu, April 23
For the first time, senior Indian Army officers interacted with the Chinese General responsible for troop operations on implementing the Border Defence Cooperation Agreement (BDCA). This is the latest border confidence building measure agreed to by the two sides late 2013. For two-and-a-half hours on Tuesday, a People’s Liberation Army team lead by Deputy Chief of General Staff (Operations) Lt. Gen. Qi Jianguo discussed with its Indian Army counterparts, led by Vice Chief of Army Staff Dalbir Singh Suhag, prospects of installing hotlines and increased interaction between the two armies at various levels, including operational commanders, command and general headquarters.

India to streamline visa procedures for Chinese
The Hindu, April 24
India has begun streamlining visa procedures for Chinese visitors and reduced the processing time to two days from five earlier, with the aim of boosting traffic in coming months as both countries prepare to mark “a year of friendly exchanges.” Indian officials said here on Thursday the move to expedite visa processing to two working days was aimed at “promoting and facilitating greater people-to-people linkages between India and China.” India’s Ambassador to China Ashok Kantha outlined plans for a 12-city “Glimpses of India” festival to be held in Beijing, Shanghai and other cities.

Indian Navy refuses Chinese navy chief’s request
Hindustan Times, April 24
The Indian Navy had to politely refuse an unusual request from the Chinese navy chief, Wu Shengli, when he came aboard one of India’s frontline stealth warships, INS Shivalik this week and wanted to be shown the Combat Information Centre (CII) or the all-important tactical room of the frigate. It was learnt that Indian officers declined Wu’s request–considered a major break from established protocol followed by navies around the world — saying since the ship was in the harbour, the room was locked and was not open to outsiders. But Wu insisted on seeing the room and his aides attempted to convince the Indian side that the Chinese admiral, member of the powerful Central Military Commission, headed by President Xi Jinping, was particularly keen to see the CIC.

India cancels annual youth delegation to China after Arunachal row
Tibetan Review, April 24
India on Apr 21 decided to cancel an annual youth exchange delegation’s visit to China after the latter had warned that it should not include any nominee from the Tibet-bordering state of Arunachal Pradesh, reported the Indian Express Apr 22. China claims that the state belongs to it as a part of its claim over occupied Tibet. It recently began calling the state southern Tibet. The cancellation of the tour came after India expressed anger at being told by the Chinese embassy in New Delhi that no nominations from the state should be included in its annual youth exchange delegation for May 2014. It provoked the county’s Youth Affairs Minister, Mr Jitendra Singh, to shoot off a strongly worded letter to the External Affairs Minister Mr Salman Khurshid, asking him to cancel the trip altogether, reported the Indian Express on Apr 20.

India-China border talks start today
The Times of India, April 28
With the snow melting in the Himalayas, India and China have scheduled a crucial meeting of the border management group on Monday to reinforce patrolling protocols on the Line of Actual Control (LAC). An Indian team from foreign and defence ministries will be in Beijing on Monday and Tuesday to hold the sixth meeting of the working mechanism on border affairs. Although the previous meeting was held just a couple of months ago in February, Indian government wanted another meeting. The Chinese team will be led by Ouyang Yujing, director general, Department of Boundary and Oceanic Affairs, while the Indian team will be led by Gautam Bambawale.

Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence basic norms of int’l relations
People’s Daily, April 27
The Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence that were initially advocated by China, India and Myanmar are important norms of international relations and should be adhered to by the international community, a retired Burmese ambassador said. The Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, advocated by the three countries’ prime ministers — Zhou Enlai (China), U Nu (Myanmar) and Jawaharlal Nehru (India), were accepted at the Bandung Conference and remain alive today, said U Sein Win Aung in a recent interview with Xinhua, who is also chairman of the Myanmar-China Friendship Association.

India interceptor missile test for strategic deterrence: China
Business Standard, April 29
India’s successful test to intercept an incoming missile at high altitude has evoked mixed reactions among Chinese military and strategic experts who believe that advances made by India in anti-ballistic missile technology are aimed at strategic deterrence. India’s anti-missile test on Sunday intercepting targets outside the atmosphere is more aimed at “strategic deterrence”, as this technology will make its enemies feel the strike power of their missiles is diminished, Wang Ya’nan, a senior editor at Aerospace Knowledge magazine, told state-run Global Times.

China owes its progress to its leadership quality: Jaishankar
Zee News, April 29
China owes its progress mostly to its leadership quality, Indian Ambassador to the US S Jaishankar, who earlier had a diplomatic stint in Beijing, said. Jaishankar made the remarks during his key note address at the Washington launch of the book – “Re-Imagining India- Unlocking the potential of Asia’s next super power”. Jaishankar lauded China’s leadership saying, “China, where I was till recently, to my mind, owes its progress most to its leadership quality. Not surprisingly, it has the most serious leadership training programme today.”

China, India meet on border issues
Xinhua, April 29
China and India continued with their three-day meeting on border affairs in Beijing on Tuesday, said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang. According to Qin, the progress of the fourth meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on China-India Border Affairs will be released when it is concluded. Qin told a regular press briefing the two countries had taken positive measures in maintaining peace and stability in recent years, and signed an agreement on border control cooperation.

India, China Hold Border Talks
The New India Express, April 30
In just two months after their last meeting, India and China began another official-level meeting on border management in Beijing on Monday. In just two months after their last meeting, India and China began another official-level meeting on border management in Beijing on Monday. A team of officials from the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and the Ministry of Defence began the sixth round of the working mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs. The last meeting between the two countries was on February 10.

Kailash Manasarovar Yatra lasting symbol of friendship between India and China: Sujatha Singh
Business Standard, April 30
Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh on Wednesday said the Kailash Manasarovar Yatra is a lasting symbol of friendship and cooperation between India and China, and added that the people who undertake this journey are cultural ambassadors of India to China.

Indian, Chinese troops to hold joint exercises in Bathinda this year
The Tribune, May 1
India and China have decided to conduct a joint military exercise at Bathinda, less than 100 km from Pakistan. The exercise, planned for the second half of the year, will be the first-ever foray of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China close to India’s western borders.

India raises PLA incursions with China during border talks
The Indian Express, May 1
Incursions by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), implementation of the boundary pact, additional confidence building measures and an alternative route for Kailash-Manasarovar Yatra pilgrims were discussed at a meeting between Indian and Chinese sides. The 6th meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs concluded on Wednesday.

Slowing US, China growth add to new Indian govt’s worries
The Times of India, May 1
The US economy grew 0.1% in the March quarter while a top Chinese government think-tank projected slower growth in 2014 adding to concerns for the new government in India which assumes office later in May against the backdrop of a patchy monsoon forecast. While scanty monsoon rains may hurt farm output and stoke food inflation, slowing growth in two major global economies is likely to hit Indian exports and dent confidence which is already running low due to the prolonged economic slowdown at home. Growth has slowed to a decade low of below 5% while prices remain high, heaping pressure on the common man.

China, India may grow closer if Modi becomes PM, says Chinese Daily
Bernama, May 7
China and India may grow closer if main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi comes to power, Press Trust of India (PTI) reported citing a Chinese daily. China’s state-run Global Times, an official publication of Communist Party of China (CPC), said in an article on Tuesday that “Modi was once a practical businessman. After he got into politics, he established good relations with China.” “A large number of Chinese enterprises have invested in Gujarat, contributing to the economic development of the state. Ties between China and India may develop further under Modi’s leadership,” the article said. However, Modi’s victory could upset western countries such as the US, which had imposed sanctions against the Gujarat chief minister for his alleged role in the 2002 riots.

Many opportunities for India-China talks on the cards in 2014
The Economic Times, May 8
In a year that China and India are celebrating as friendship year, their leaders have plenty of opportunities to meet up. That will likely give the next government in New Delhi and Beijing a chance to work towards removing irritants in bilateral ties at a time when economic issues are getting more weight in foreign policy than territorial disputes.

IndiaandChinain the race to build naval dockyard in the Maldives
Daily Mail, May 9
India and China are in the race to build a naval dockyard in the Maldives. At a time when Army chief General Bikram Singh is touring the island nation, India has a long list of wishes that the Maldives wants fulfiled. Apart from the naval dockyard, the Maldives also wants coastal surveillance radar and fast attack craft from India.

News Reports

China and India in the Region

Ties with China looming over Indo-Japan naval relations
Hindustan Times, April 23
The Indian Navy is willing but the reluctance of the government is preventing an upswing in Indo-Japan naval ties, Japan’s navy chief, Admiral Katsutoshi Kawano said Tuesday, indicating that cagey Sino-Indian ties were weighing down naval relations between New Delhi and Tokyo. “India has a very good navy and we want to engage more closely,” Kawano said. Kawano said Japan was ready with its technology and equipment to cooperate with the Indian Navy. In fact, India is set to become the first country since the Second World War to buy the US-2 amphibious military aircraft from Japan.

US deepening its ties with India, China, Indonesia: Obama
Business Standard, April 24
US is deepening ties with emerging powers like China, India and Indonesia as part of its long-term commitment to Asia, President Barack Obama has said. ”We’re deepening our ties with emerging powers like China, India and Indonesia. We’re more closely engaged with regional institutions like ASEAN and the East Asia Summit. We’re standing with citizens, including the people of Burma, as they work toward a democratic future,” Obama, who is currently on a trip to Asia, said. “America is and always will be a Pacific nation, and at my direction the United States is once again playing a leading role in the region, in close partnership with allies like Japan. We seek security, where international law and norms are upheld and disputes are resolved peacefully,” he said in an interview to the popular Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun.

Japan Navy chief’s message for new Indian govt.
The Hindu, April 24
The new government that will take charge in New Delhi next month has been given a clear message from Japan’s top-most naval official: Tokyo hopes the Indian political establishment – which under two terms of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) has generally been cautious on boosting military ties with Japan keeping China’s concerns in mind– will do “much more” to build closer relations. Admiral Katsutoshi Kawano, Chief of Staff of Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF), said his country has been “wanting very much” to re-join the bilateral Malabar sea exercises between the United States and India. Japan was last invited to join the exercise in 2007, but has subsequently been kept out after China protested the three-way exercises and suggested they were aimed at Beijing.

Multi-country maritime exercises held off coast of Qingdao
Global Times, April 24
Nineteen ships, seven helicopters and marine corps from eight countries including China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Singapore, Indonesia, India, Malaysia and Brunei were organized into three task forces to conduct the exercises dubbed “Maritime Cooperation – 2014”.

China: String-of-pearls turns into maritime Silk Road
The Nation, April 27
The Chinese have officially outlined its “maritime silk road” plan of building key strategic ports in specific geographies surrounded by the Indian Ocean. This is the first time that China has released details of its plans and it follows the “string-of-pearls” idea first mentioned in an internal USA Department of Defense report titled “Energy Futures in Asia”. The term has never been used by the Chinese government but in large part, the Maritime Silk Road plan follows it closely and is aimed at building ports and improving infrastructure in countries like Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

India-Japan-US trilateral talks on a higher plane
The Times of India, April 27
Marking for the first time the growing significance of the New Delhi-Tokyo ties, a joint statement between Barack Obama and Shinzo Abe in Tokyo on Friday highlighted a trilateral dialogue between Japan, India and the US for “peace and economic prosperity in the Asia-Pacific and around the globe”. The trilateral, which Japan also holds with Australia and South Korea, has become one of the most successful joint initiatives by the three countries.

China, India among countries on US piracy, patents blacklist
The Economic Times, April 30
The United States on Wednesday named China and India among countries on its blacklist of countries failing to properly protect U.S. copyrights and patents but kept their status unchanged from the previous review. The U.S. Trade Representative did not designate any countries a “priority foreign country,” the worst label in its annual scorecard on how well countries protect U.S. patents, copyrights and other intellectual property rights, which can lead to action against a trading partner.

India displaces Japan to become third-largest world economy in terms of PPP: World Bank
The Economic Times, April 30
India has displaced Japan to become the world’s third biggest economy in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), according to a World Bank report released on Tuesday. The 2011 round of the bank’s International Comparison Program (ICP) ranked India after the US and China. The last survey in 2005 had placed the country on 10th place.

Australian coalmining is entering ‘structural decline’, reports says
The Guardian, May 5
Coalmining in Australia is entering a “structural decline”, with projects set to become unviable due to unrealistic expectations over the potential to export the fossil fuels to China and India, according to a new report. The study, by the US-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, suggests that two huge coalmining projects in central Queensland, backed by Indian cash, “are likely to prove uncommercial” due to unfavourable market conditions.

Global citizenship catching fancy of super-rich in India, China
The Economic Times, May 5
Global citizenship is becoming popular among the world’s ultra-wealthy and an increasing number of super-rich from Asia’s two giants China and India are likely to trend this path in the coming years, says a Wealth-X report. China and India both already have some of the largest populations based abroad. Moreover, coupled with current residents of China and India, the two countries have a total UHNW population of 26,925, accounting for one in every seven UHNW individuals in the world.

India does better on global conflict, political violence index
The Economic Times, May 7
India’s long-drawn election campaign may have seen rhetoric reach new extremes of divisiveness but the risk of conflict and political violence in the country has significantly declined relative to others, according to a global index that has red-flagged rising terror attacks in China as a growing cause of concern for prospective investors. India remains a high-risk country and is rated 18 on the places most risky to do business in according to the Conflict and Political Violence Index.

China, Indiatop foreign policy priorities: Nepal PM
Business Standard, May 9
In his first public speech on the country’s foreign policy, Nepal’s Prime Minister Sushil Koirala said China and India are top foreign policy priorities of his government. In a briefing to the diplomatic community in Kathmandu late Thursday evening, Koirala said his government would not allow any activities from the Nepali soil against the neighbouring countries, Xinhua reported.

Concerned, IndiaCalls for Solution to South ChinaSea Row
The New Indian Express, May 10
India has expressed “concern” at the ongoing high stakes confrontation in South China Sea, reiterating the solution should be found within international law, a traditional position which is at odds with the biggest stakeholder of the dispute, China. Stating that India has been, “following with concern”, recent developments in South China Sea, Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Syed Akbaruddin said on Friday, “We believe that maintenance of peace, stability, growth, and prosperity in the region is of vital interest to the international community.”

After China, Indiasends most students to America
Times of India, May 11
Of the total proportion of foreign students in the US, India cements its place as the No. 2 destination after China. While 29% foreign students in the US with F (academic) and M (vocational) visas are from China, 11% come from India, says US immigration and customs enforcement report released in April. “Nearly 100,000 Indians are pursuing higher studies in the US, enriching our classrooms and campuses and building relationships that will last a lifetime,” said the US consul general in Mumbai Peter Haas.

Israeli Ties With ChinaandIndiaCompromise Asian Support to Arabs
Al-Jazeerah.info, May 12
Israel has carved economic inroads into Asia deep enough to compromise the traditional Asian political support for Arabs. If this trend continues, the growing economic Israeli-Asian relations could in no time translate into political ties that would neutralize Asia in the Arab-Israeli conflict.

News Reports

Trade and Economy

Indian Aluminum Producers Look to ‘Safeguard’ Against Chinese Imports
Metal Miner, April 28
India’s three leading aluminum producers – Hindalco Industries, Sesa Sterlite and Bharat Aluminium Company have petitioned the Indian government to impose a “safeguard duty” on imports of a bricklike aluminum product for four years to protect domestic producers. The three companies together account for 71 percent of total domestic production. In 2009, some aluminum producers had proposed a similar tax, especially against cheaper imports from China.

China Set To Overtake US As World’s Largest Economy While India Pulls Ahead Of Japan To Become Third-Largest Economy: World Bank
International Business Times, April 30
China is on track to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy while India has already moved ahead of Japan to become the third-largest economy, according to a report released Tuesday by the World Bank. The report released the findings of the 2011 International Comparison Program, or ICP, which assesses economies based on purchasing power parity, or PPP, and noted that China’s Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, was nearly 87 percent of U.S. GDP in 2011 while India had moved up from being at 10th position in 2005. The world produced goods and services worth more than $90 trillion in 2011 and half of that output came from low- and middle-income countries, according to the report.

U.S. resists pressure to give India worst offender rating in IP review
Reuters, April 30
The United States has resisted lobbying by U.S. drug and pharmaceutical companies to take tougher trade action against India for its intellectual property policies, deciding against risking ties with a likely new government in New Delhi. The U.S. Trade Representative avoided labeling India with the worst offender tag in its annual scorecard on protecting U.S. patents, copyrights and other intellectual property (IP) rights. Instead, the United States kept India, which is in the midst of elections, on its Priority Watch List along with China and eight other countries. It would start a special review of India in the fall and “redouble” efforts to address concerns with the new government, the U.S. Trade Representative said.

Japanese firms hiring more talent from India, China
Business Line, April 30
Facing cut-throat competition from the international market, Japanese companies are stepping up efforts to hire people from India, China and other emerging countries, reaching out for talent across national borders. Technology companies are no exception to the trend of cross-border talent hunting as they try to survive the crucial phase. Harshad Maral, an Indian engineer who was hired by Sony Corp in 2010, is a Sony aficionado whose enthusiasm for the company shames even his Japanese colleagues.

Indian traders swarming China’s trade hub for cheap goods
The Economic Times, April 30
India has emerged as one of the top importers of small commodities from the world’s biggest wholesale market here, with 3.60 lakh Indian traders visiting the city last year to buy products worth $780 million, flooding the country with low priced Chinese goods. The US edged past India in 2013 to become the highest importer from Yiwu while India retained second spot, City Vice Mayor Dong Feng Ming said. India was at the top in 2011-12. Highlighting Yiwu’s increasingly close trade links with India, Ming said the trade gained ‘profound momentum’ boosted by the visits of 3.60 lakh Indian businessmen last year.

India became third largest economy in 2011: World Bank
The Hindu, May 1
In a matter of six years, India emerged as the world’s third-largest economy in 2011 from being the tenth largest in 2005, moving ahead of Japan, while the US remained the largest economy closely followed by China, latest figures have revealed. “The economies of Japan and the UK became smaller relative to the US, while Germany increased slightly and France and Italy remained the same,” according to data released today by the International Comparison Program (ICP), hosted by the Development Data Group at the World Bank Group. “The relative rankings of the three Asian economies — China, India, and Indonesia — to the US doubled, while Brazil, Mexico and Russia increased by one-third or more,” the report said. The world produced goods and services worth over USD 90 trillion in 2011 and that almost half of the total output came from low and middle-income countries, it said.

India is the ‘bedrock’ of Yiwu’s economy
The Hindu, April 30
India in 2013 grew to become Yiwu’s second largest export destination. Of the half a million foreign traders who visited this city in 2013, three out of four were Indian. There are 1,089 Indian businessmen living in the city, Li said, with 34 permanent offices and more than 233 partnerships with local companies. In 2012, the city was in the headlines over a bitter dispute involving two resident Indian traders, who were held hostage after the owner of their firm fled overseas while owing more than 10 million yuan ($1.6 million). The incident prompted the Indian Embassy in Beijing to issue a trade advisory directed at Yiwu. The Communist Party chief in Yiwu, Li Yifei said he would assure traders from India that disputes would be handled fairly as the government was “expanding dispute solving channels”, for instance through the recent setting up of a dispute resolution centre and an online system for credit checks.

Indian gods, made in China
The Hindu, May 3
Mr. Zhao’s shop, the Zhejiang Yiwu Yijie Crafts company, displays from its walls images one would not expect to find in officially atheist China: on one corner is a collection of beautifully rendered images of the god Krishna as a child. There are, on the shop’s walls, framed photographs of half a dozen gods and goddesses from the Hindu pantheon: images of Ganesha, Hanuman and Saraswathi on a lotus. More than a hundred Indian companies buy Mr. Zhao’s products, supplying and distributing them across India – often without making their customers aware of the fact that the images that adorn their prayer rooms were all put together by Chinese workers in a factory in Zhejiang province. Over the past decade, Yiwu has emerged as a marketplace for the world. Goods from factories across China’s manufacturing heartland in the southern provinces of Zhejiang and Guangdong find their way to Yiwu’s traders, before being dispatched across the world. Mr. Zhao’s business illustrates the depth to which Chinese manufacturing has penetrated the Indian market. 

China wants to tap India’s expertise in services sector
The Hindu, May 3
Even as India is on the threshold of electing a new government, neighbouring China sees a huge potential for cooperation between the two countries, especially in economic development, according to Cheng Guang Zhong, minister-counsellor of the Chinese Embassy in Delhi. Mr. Cheng, heading a four-member delegation on a visit to Chennai from May 2 to 4, said China could gain a lot from India’s expertise in the services sector.

Russia can switch to payments with India, China in national currencies crushing dollar amid sanctions – experts
The Voice of Russia, May 4
Russia has decided to develop cooperation with Asian countries. India, for example is our partner in issues of the military-industrial complex, in the high-tech segment. Cooperation with China is based on the raw materials sector, engineering, military technology. Recall that the Russian president’s visit is due in May. Most likely, agreements on natural gas will be signed. Actually, bearing in mind that China will become the world’s largest economy in the near future, the development of the eastern vector will guarantee that a considerable part of extra profits and the growth of the home market will be generated in the South-East Asia.

China Pushes for Asia-Pacific Free Trade Agreement
Asia Briefing, May 5
Amid the stalling of the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and expected challenges with the alternative Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) deal, China has proposed a third route. Assistant Minister of Commerce Wang Shou confirmed China’s plan to urge Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) trade ministers to initiate a study on the feasibility of the proposed Free Trade Area of Asia Pacific (FTAAP) during the APEC Senior Officials’ Meeting to be held later this month in Qingdao. China is also due to host the annual APEC meeting this October in Beijing after last year’s Bali round.

Chinese policy causes a 25% fall in India’s April cotton exports
The Economic Times, May 6
The Indian cotton yarn industry is in a spot. The recently announced Chinese cotton policy has made cotton yarn exports to the Dragon country unattractive thus denting Indian yarn exports by 25% in the month of April. Though the demand of cotton yarn in domestic market is showing some recovery but the textile mills say that the robust growth is yet to be felt thus raising concern for the industry which has just come out from the financial hardship of 2009-10.

China, India Competition to Soar
Wall Street Journal, May 7
As India looks to ratchet up its manufacturing exports and China expands its services industries, Asia’s two giants are going to be battling more for global markets. Senior opposition party leader Arun Jaitley told The Wall Street Journal that should his Bharatiya Janata Party come to power later this month—as some polls have predicted will happen– it would implement policies to make India a bigger manufacturer and exporter like China.  At the same time China is hoping its economy will evolve so that services, like software, communications and tourism make up a higher slice of its gross domestic product.

Asia Economic Growth to Drive Demand for Infrastructure Projects
Bloomberg, May 7
The economic growth in Southeast Asia, China and India will provide opportunities for companies to invest in infrastructure projects such as airports, said Ram Charan, an independent business adviser. China will have a minimum of 400 airports and India will add at least another 100, said Dallas-based Charan, who has advised companies including General Electric Co., Tata Group and Verizon Communications Inc. Health-care and consumer industries, especially for luxury goods, also provide opportunities, he said in an interview in Singapore yesterday.

India’s Rupee Climbs to One-Month High on Fed, China Trade Data
Bloomberg, May 8
India’s rupee rose to a one-month high after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled the U.S. still needs monetary stimulus and China’s exports beat forecasts. Yellen said yesterday in testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress that a “high degree” of accommodation remains warranted and that the Fed must continue to spur economic growth as indicators for inflation and employment remain far from its goals. China’s overseas shipments rebounded in April after contracting for the previous two months, easing concern about a slowdown in Asia’s biggest economy.

New govt expected to open Indian iron ore mines: Radiant World
Business Standard, May 8
The global iron ore industry expects India’s new government to open the country’s mines and resume exports to China, a senior official of trading firm Radiant World said today. “We have good expectations (of the Indian mines opening),” said Gopalakrishna Rampalli, senior vice president of the Mumbai-based company.

Indiato Face Tough Fight fromChinain Services Exports: Report
NDTV, May 8
A report from State Bank of India says China is going to emerge as a threat to India for global services business. “In the first step the import substitution measure of China would affect India’s services export to China. In medium term, when China starts exporting services it may eat up India’s share in the international market,” the report says. In 2013, India’s net services export was at $18 billion while China was a net importer of $124.5 billion worth of services, the report said. Within India’s net services export pie, the software sector’s net contribution was $16.8 billion.

China‘s$50 Billion Asia Bank Snubs Japan,Indiain Power Push
Bloomberg, May 11
China’s proposal is viewed privately by officials and diplomats as a challenge to the regional role of the ADB, a Manila-based multilateral lender founded in 1966 that is dominated by the U.S. and Japan. It’s one of a number of moves by China to promote its influence in the region, from the suggestion of a “mega free-trade area” in Asia to promoting a regional security summit hosted by President Xi Jinping this month with at least 14 state or government leaders attending, including Russian President Vladimir Putin. Japan and the U.S. are observers to the 24-member body

IndiaShares Rise on Election Hopes,ChinaShares Higher on Reform Talk
Wall Street Journal, May 12
Stocks in Mumbai hit a new high Monday and the rupee was its strongest in 10 months on hopes the Indian election will bring in a more business-friendly government, while Chinese stocks rose as the market welcomed a blueprint for capital market reform.

News Reports

Energy and Environment

After offering Kashagan oilfield to China, Kazakhstan now tries to mollify India
Business Line, April 24
Kazakhstan is keen to make amends with India on the energy front. After the Kazakh Government handed over stake in Kashagan oilfields to China last year straining relations with India, it now wants India to participate in upcoming projects and joint ventures as well as the trans-national oil pipeline. A senior government official said China had started playing a major role in Kazakh’s economy, including oil exploration, production and laying of pipelines to China, which is now turning into an area of concern. “Seeing the growing Chinese influence (almost 40 per cent of oil and gas business), Kazakhstan now wants India to be more proactive as it does not want to be over-dependent on China,” he told Business Line.

Is India losing the water war against China?
DNA, April 27
A resource struggle with China is afoot as the giant neighbour plans many dams on the Brahmaputra. India’s response to the strategic warfare has been lukewarm, defence expert Brahma Chellaney tells DNA. When China’s demand for water swells, it will ruthlessly pursue its national interest and tap into resources that provide water to India, Kazakhstan, Laos and Cambodia, he says. China’s policy on river waters itself is alarming. It believes in the Doctrine of Absolute Territorial Integrity over river waters. This doctrine calls for absolute control over river waters that originate from its territory, irrespective of what happens downstream, he says.

On social progress, India worst in BRICS, US among developed peers
The Indian Express, April 27
In a virtual rerun of the Human Development Index scorecard, the Social Progress Index 2014 has also put India at a dismal rank of 102, the last in the BRICS peer group. India at 102 position trails Brazil which scores best among the group with a rank of 46 reflecting the most “balanced” social progress, South Africa is at 69, Russia at 80 and China at 90. Russia and China have performed best in the area of Basic Human Needs, but rank low on personal rights and ecosystem sustainability.

ONGC’s presence in South China Sea: Beijing sets up oil rig to reinforce its territorial claims
The Economic Times, May 7
Days after India and Vietnam agreed to additional presence by state-run ONGC in oil blocks in South China Sea region, Beijing has upped the ante and set up oil rig to reinforce its territorial claims in the region. In what could spark fresh tension in the region the China National Offshore Oil Corporation in a sudden move on May 1 moved oil drilling rig ‘HD 981’ for operation at the location about 120 nautical miles from the Vietnamese coast, which is within the exclusive economic zone.

India, China must be responsible to combat climate change: US
Business Standard, May 7
Moments after releasing a report on the impact of climate change in the US, the White House has said it is essential that countries with high carbon emission, such as India and China, be responsible in addressing this major challenge. “It is absolutely essential that nations that produce high levels of carbon emissions be responsible in addressing this challenge,” White House Press Secretary Jay Carney told reporters yesterday during his daily news conference when asked about India and China.

US senators against export of natural gas toIndia,China
IBNLive, May 10
A bi-partisan group of 22 American senators have expressed reservations on the export of natural gas to Asian countries such as India and China, arguing that such a move by the Obama Administration would result in an increase in cost for consumers and businesses at home. “Natural gas prices in Asia are currently three to four times higher than those in the US. Integration of US and Asian natural gas markets through US exports could lead to further increases in prices for American consumers and businesses, which may fundamentally reverse many of the economic benefits that have led to the current surge in manufacturing job growth in the US,” the senators said in a letter to Obama.

Analyses and Commentaries

No change in China policies if BJP wins
Global Times, April 21
With Indian general elections underway, the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seems on course for a win. But after BJP prime-ministerial candidate Narendra Modi threatened a tougher attitude on border disputes with China recently, there have been worries about relations between the two Asian giants in case of a BJP victory. 

China, India and Indonesia: Asia’s Giants Under New Management
Jakarta Globe, April 22
Kishore Mahbubani opines that more than one-third of the world’s population lives in just three countries: China, India and Indonesia. With all three undergoing significant political transitions — whether electing a new leader or experiencing a recently installed leader’s first key decisions — this is a decisive moment in shaping the global economy’s future. If Narendra Modi and Joko “Jokowi” Widodo win the upcoming elections in India and Indonesia, respectively, they will join Chinese President Xi Jinping in spurring regional economic growth — likely causing Asia’s rise to global economic preeminence to occur faster than the world ever imagined.

US, China signals in the time of political transition
DNA, April 23
Shastri Ramachandarn highlights that the general expectation is that the Lok Sabha election would result in a government with a new set of people and policies. Regardless of whether this comes about, many countries are taking positions to stay on the right side in this time of transition. In doing so, foreign governments have conveyed that they do not share the alarmist views of the media in their country about Narendra Modi. Envoys of many governments, including the US, the UK and China, have established a rapport with Modi and expect this to stand them in good stead. The big interest, however, is on India’s relations with the US and China because of its importance to global power play.

The China model of growth won’t work in India
Hindustan Times, April 23
The BJP’s 3D view — demography, democracy, and demand — is an encapsulation of India’s current problems. The solutions, however, are far more complex than a catchy alliteration. Demand — for goods and services — is a function of money and income. Greater income will prompt people to spend more. Companies, thus, will be encouraged to add more capacity lines and hire more to feed into the growing demand, leading to a revival of the so-called ‘manufacturing’ sector. There is, however, a qualification in this line of argument. A large plant that employs few but produces on a massive scale cannot necessarily lead to greater income. China-style mega industrial zones are important to reap benefits of scale, technology and temper down prices. But for India, any plan to convert the country into a manufacturing hub would necessarily have to factor in the millions of hopefuls who join the work force every year.

Why India needs private investment to boost defence
The Economic Times, April 23
India is now one of the world’s biggest spenders on defence and the world’s largest importer of military equipment and munitions. Adjusted for purchasing power parity, India was the world’s ninth-biggest spender on defence in 2012, according to the World Bank. It spends a full 2.5% of its GDP on the military, a tad higher than the world total of 2.4%, though lower than America’s 3.8% of GDP. Yet, unlike the US, most European nations or even China, India does not have a thriving dome.

China and South Asia: Contention and Cooperation Between Giant Neighbours
The European Financial Review, April 23
Xiangming Chen, Pallavi Banerjee, Gaurav Toor and Ned Downie study that are China and India allies or enemies in the South Asian economy? Well, it seems they are both; working together in healthy and profitable partnerships while maintaining armies in the contested China-India borders. The article explains the paradoxical nature of the China-India relationship and its impact and implications for the smaller countries in South Asia and neighboring Southeast Asia.

India’s Election on China’s Weibo
Gateway House, April 24
Ying Pei demonstrates that as India’s election goes on, drawing attention from the domestic and international media, Weibo, the biggest social medium in China, can provide a peek into the Chinese public’s thoughts on the Indian election and other related issues, revealing the Chinese people’s complex sentiments towards the election and their southern neighbor.

Could Modi Be India’s “Nixon to China?”
Foreign Policy, April 24
In February, Narendra Modi, the front-runner to be India’s next prime minister, urged China to leave behind its “mindset of expansion.” Speaking to a gathering in Arunachal Pradesh, an Indian border state that is partly claimed by China, Modi added in the same breath that Beijing should work for “development and prosperity.” While a one-off election speech is hardly a comprehensive guide, Modi’s statement provides some clues into India’s prospective foreign policy. Namely, it reveals his preference for a “compartmentalized” approach to China.

Even as New Delhi and Beijing have strived towards deepening economic cooperation, the relationship between the two sides has continued to be defined by high politics and geopolitical rivalry, and exacerbated by regular border standoffs. But with Modi, domestic priorities are likely to play an even greater role in his government’s China stance than foreign policy concerns. The broad contours of the India-China bilateral relationship could be marked less by high politics and grand strategy and more by unprecedented investment cooperation in coming years.

A War for Thirty Years of Peace
The New Indian Express, April 27
V Sudarshan highlights that for a long time, the Chinese mulled over the scale of the reaction to India’s stance. The Chinese, says John Garver (China’s Decision for War with India in 1962), were erroneously convinced at both political and military levels that Tibet was the root cause of Nehru’s forward policy. The official People’s Liberation Army history argues that India sought to turn Tibet into a “buffer zone”. The “decisive factor” for the Chinese was the way India welcomed the Dalai Lama and the thousands who escaped the Chinese crackdown of the Lhasa uprising of 1959. Indian media was full of stories of Chinese repression. It reiterated to Mao that India was behind the rebellion and saw Nehru’s forward policy as an effort to “seize Tibet”.

China’s rising economic might and its implications for India
DNA India, April 27
Shastri Ramachandaran writes that China’s offer to invest $300 billion — 30% of the 12th Five Year Plan target of $1 trillion — for India’s infrastructure development in the next three years is at once an opportunity and a challenge. It is an opportunity that has never come India’s way from any other country. Economic engagement with China on such a scale with access to its investible surplus, expertise, technology, products and, perhaps, labour, too, would transform not only the Indian economy and the pace of its development but also India-China relations to a formidable global partnership. The challenge is whether India has the political and diplomatic courage to seize this opportunity.

New government will boost ties with China: China’s ambassador to India, Wei Wei
The Economic Times, April 28
China’s Ambassador to India, Wei Wei tells ET’s Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury that the new Indian government is expected to boost economy and help bilateral ties reach historical stage. Describing India as an important neighbour, Wei Wei says the relation between the two countries is a prior agenda in China’s foreign policy

Updating India’s nuclear doctrine
Live Mint, April 29
W.P.S Sihdu opines that there is a case to review and, perhaps, revise and update the Indian nuclear doctrine, which dates back to 2003. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will “study in detail India’s nuclear doctrine, and revise and update it, to make it relevant to challenges of current times.” (Ek Bharat Shreshtha Bharat, BJP’s 2014 election manifesto). Unsurprisingly, these words have perturbed international strategic experts. Everyone remembers how the party delivered on its 1998 manifesto promise to “re-evaluate the country’s nuclear policy and exercise the option to induct nuclear weapons”.

The Indian Navy’s ‘China’ dilemma
IDSA, April 28
Abhijit Singh argues that the Indian navy’s premier warship, INS Shivalik, has just completed a maritime exercise at Qingdao with the PLA-N and the navies of six other countries, including Pakistan. China’s invitation to India to participate in its first ever multilateral maritime exercises, held alongside the Western Pacific Naval Symposium (WPNS) is an important landmark and, not surprisingly, it has drawn considerable attention with some views expressing it as “a new phase” in India-China maritime relations.

Naval symposium in China: Decoding the outcome
IDSA, April 29
Sarabjeet Singh Parmar argues that one of the hallmarks of the Western Pacific Naval Symposium (WPNS) held at Qingdao, China in April 2014 was the adoption of an agreement called the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES). This agreement signed by the US, China and around two dozen Asia-Pacific nations (including India, Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Australia amongst others) caters for improving communications when ships of the signatory nations meet in an unplanned event at sea and thereby reduce the possibility of any misunderstanding or collision that in turn could lead to increased friction.

The Developing India-China Maritime Dynamic
The Diplomat, May 1
Abhijit Singh argues that New Delhi’s new pragmatic approach has a sobering flipside: Beijing’s growing involvement in the security and governance of the IOR will eventually pose a strong challenge to India’s power and stature in the Indian Ocean. What seems like a win-win proposal today could prove to be the ultimate zero-sum proposition tomorrow – a complex equation that India will have little chance of resolving in its favor, unless it has the gumption to take hard strategic decisions. China’s gradual and organic appropriation of the Indian Ocean will only attenuate New Delhi’s geo-political equities and strategic influence in the region.

India-China: A Water War over the Brahmaputra?
IPCS, May 1
Roomana Hukil highlights that recently, Claude Arpi, a renowned scholar on China, wrote about how China’s aspirations to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra River were feeding into mounting disagreements between New Delhi and Beijing. China has consistently been moving ahead with its dam construction projects and India has been pressing for a negotiation with the government of China to look into the proposed reduction in the diversion of the water flow of the Brahmaputra. Is a water conflict over the Brahmaputra River likely in the near future? What measures must the government in India, which will come to power following the conclusion of the ongoing election, adopt in order to resolve the water-sharing tensions between both states?

India and Indonesia show Asia isn’t all about China
Market Watch, May 1
Peter Kohli writes that he does not see “Asia” as a monolith, with or without China. He looks at certain segments that make sense to him, although they may not be the most popular breakouts. As a case in point, he thinks the most promising segment of Asia can be found in the southeast. However, when you Google Southeast Asia, you’ll likely come up with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries and corresponding investments.

India’s next foreign policy
Business Day, May 2
Jaswant Singh argues that next month, India will complete its marathon election. A new government is expected to assume power at the end of May, and, if the polls prove correct, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has named Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate, will lead that government. With India’s sluggish economic performance having rightly dominated the campaign, the question of what foreign policy the new government should pursue remains unanswered. Whatever the specifics, one imperative is clear: India must move beyond its allegiance to the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). The most pressing threat to India’s peace lies on its borders, especially the Himalayan border with China, the world’s longest disputed frontier – not least because uncertainty there facilitates inflows of terrorist forces bent on undermining India’s territorial integrity and sowing seeds of ethnic and religious conflict.

Why India Will Soon Outpace China
Forbes, May 4
James Gruber writes that the picture doesn’t appear as favourable for China’s economic prospects vis-a-vis India’s. First, it’s highly probable that China’s GDP growth rate is slowing much more than the fraudulent figures put out by the government. Second, credit tightening in China will almost certainly take years rather than months given the boom which preceded it. Third, Chinese economic reform will be a drag on growth in the near-term, as can already be evidenced by the crackdown on corruption and its impact on retail consumption.

India’s Himalayan China ignorance
The Hindu, May 5
Praveen Swami reviews Shishir Gupta’s The Himalayan Face-Off, highlighting that book tells us two important things. First, it underlines the desperate thinness of Indian intellectual engagement on China. In spite of exponential growth in trade, mirrored only by the growing concern over the rising Chinese nationalism, there is only a small corpus of serious Indian writing that engages unfolding policy debates. The second important thing reactions to Mr. Gupta tell us is this: Indian policy-making on China is at a crossroads. For the best part of two decades, Indian foreign policy makers have assumed that a growing economic relationship would lead to strategic stabilisation, and an eventual resolution of the two countries’ border disputes.

Pacing India-China Relations
Chennai Center for China Studies, May 5
Bhaskar Roy argues that howsoever little, the forward movement on the border issue in the overall India-China relations may be appreciated. The recent visit of Gen. Qi Jianguo Deputy Chief of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to India (Apr 22-24), an Indian naval ship taking part in the PLA navy’s fleet review in Qingdao, Joint Working Group (JWG) bilateral meeting in Beijing, all add to positives in this relationship. Both sides have agreed to enhance military-to-military relationship to forge closer ties, and expand cooperation in various fields. This has particular relevance to the border issue especially transgressions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) by troops of the other side.

Modi victory could cause disquiet in West
Global Times, May 5
Liu Zongyi argues that some Indian and Western observers claim that a Modi victory would lead to a period of authoritarian or even fascist rule in the country given his authoritarian style of leadership in his home state of Gujarat. They underscore the possibility that India will ally with Japan and Vietnam to contain China after Modi becomes the prime minister. However, it has been a policy for India to offset the negative effects of China’s rise by enhancing strategic cooperation with countries around China. It’s unlikely that Modi will change this policy. Modi was once a practical businessman. After he got into politics, he established good relations with China. A large number of Chinese enterprises invested in Gujarat, contributing to the economic development of the state. Therefore, ties between China and India may become closer under Modi’s leadership.

For a clear nuclear doctrine
The Hindu, May 6
Jayant Prasad reviews India’s nuclear doctrine. For India, nuclear deterrence is defensive and a means to secure its sovereignty and security. Its strategy of assured retaliation, combined with “no first use,” provides adequate guarantee for this purpose. The strategy was unveiled concurrently with its 1998 nuclear tests, which ended the determined U.S. bid to prevent India from acquiring nuclear deterrent. Ironically, India’s nuclear weapons tests, together with the rapid expansion of its economy, transformed its global outlook and relations with the U.S. and the world. The Chinese nuclear weapons test of 1964, on the heels of the 1962 war, had always rankled in Indian minds.

Our foreign policy needs adjustment
India Today, May 6
Kanwal Sibal writes that now that it appears that the next government in New Delhi could well be Modi-led, questions about the possible changes in India’s foreign policy are being raised inside and outside the country. India’s external challenges are well known and policy responses have been examined over time by governments in power. Whether existing policies represent the best balance in coping with our external environment with the capacities we have can always be debated. Some say that our foreign policy is weak and accommodating, too risk-averse and lacking in self-confidence.

Many mountains still to cross in Sino-Indian relations
South China Morning Post, May 7
Neeta Lal argues that it would have be reasonable to expect an Oxford-educated economist like Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh – architect of India’s economic reforms in the 1990s, which put the country on a high-growth trajectory – to leverage trade with China to his country’s advantage. With the world’s largest democracy embarked on its five-week general elections that end on Monday, one of the biggest disappointments of Singh’s decade-long term will undoubtedly be his failure to establish a balance between economic transactions with India’s largest trade partner.

Looking West
The Times of India, May 8
It has been a disappointing few years for Indian higher education on the global charts, with not a single Indian college featuring in the top 100 global educational institutions and the coveted IITs making their first appearance at the 222nd rank. Of the four global emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India and China – Indian colleges continue to scrape the bottom rung of the education race, with Chinese colleges battling venerated US institutions for a place in the top 50, while Indian colleges remain out of site and mind in the far reaches of the bottom 100. This has left a bad taste in the mouths of India’s youth, who are being integrated into the global economy that India has become.

Forex reserves: why following Chinawon’t work for India| East Asia Forum
East Asia Forum, May 10
Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan recently stated that India’s economy cannot be said to be insulated from external shocks unless the country’s foreign exchange reserves rise to the levels of China’s. ‘I think, if you focus only on reserves, there is really no point at which you feel safe … 400, 500, 600 … any level of reserves, until you get to Chinese level, it is probably not enough’, he said. Recent research, however, suggests that the myth of a ‘comfortable level of reserves’ is, at best, doubtful, at worst, misleading.

Modi will move Indiacloser to Japan andChina, US expert on Sangh Parivar says
Times of India, May 11
Some 27 years after it was first published, Dr Walter Andersen’s book The Brotherhood of Saffron, co-authored with Shridhar Damle, remains the definitive study of the sangh parivar and its dynamics in India. As a young state department official posted at the US embassy in India, and thereafter holding posts in Foggy Bottom that kept him in the India loop, Andersen has followed the evolution of the RSS and the BJP, including the rise of Narendra Modi, who he first met in Washington DC as a state department guest in the early 1990s. Dr Andersen is Washington’s go-to man for matters relating to RSS and BJP, and these are busy days for him.

Journal Articles and Publications

China’s provincial diplomacy to Africa: applications to health cooperation
Contemporary Politics, May 2014
Gordon C. Shen & Victoria Y. Fan argue that there is a prevailing view of China as a unitary actor in its relationships with African countries. This view is incomplete: on the contrary, China is a collection of provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities with myriad strategic ties to African countries, with decentralization shaping the current form of Chinese government and its level of efficiency. In this paper, factors have been explored for why Chinese provinces have played a role in foreign cooperation in health of African countries, in addition to trade and foreign direct investment. Incentives and disincentives for Chinese provinces to engage internationally in foreign cooperation and health assistance have been identified. The concept of paradiplomacy for health has been presented and this typology has been applied to the example of Chinese medical teams. Finally, we draw linkages between China and other members of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

Relevancy of Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence (Panchsheel) in Post Cold War Era
Asian Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies, May 2014
Vishakha Sharma and A. K. Ghildial highlight that 2014 is “the year Friendly Exchanges” between India and China. It is also the 60th anniversary of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence (Panchsheel). Thus it becomes imperative to study the relevancy of Panchsheel in Post Cold War Era. In Post Cold War Era, the bilateral high level close interaction has been resulted into strengthening the strategic trust between India and China. The 16th special Representatives meeting for the India-China Boundary dispute and the 5th India china strategic dialogue were held. In this Paper, the researcher has studied the bilateral relations between India and China in the frame of reference of Panchsheel and depth of mutual interest taking place. In the contemporary world, the conceptual basis for international relations provided by Panchsheel can be more effective in formulating a new world order.

Determinants of renewable energy adoption in China and India: a comparative analysis
Applied Economics, May 2014
Shuddhasattwa Rafiq, Harry Bloch& Ruhul Salim examine the dynamic relationships among output, carbon emission and renewable energy generation of India and China during the period 1972 to 2011 using a multivariate vector error correction model (VECM). The results for India reveal unidirectional short-run causality from carbon emission to renewable energy generation and from renewable energy generation to output, whereas in the long run, the variables have bidirectional causality. Causalities in China give a rather different scenario, with a short-run unidirectional causality from output to renewable energy and from carbon emission to renewable energy generation. In the long run, for China, unidirectional causality is found from output to renewable energy generation, while bidirectional causality is found between carbon emission and renewable energy generation.