China-India Brief #122

Guest Column

Why this Flurry of Smiles in China-India Ties?

By P S Suryanarayana   

Photo: kremlin.ru

Chinese President Xi Jinping is pursuing his “China Dream” of long-term global leadership by drawing up a grand strategy called the “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI). His pursuit has gradually caused what I see as his latest India-imperative, because of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s dim view of the BRI. India-imperative is China’s geopolitical compulsion for a non-hostile and cordial relationship with India, as far as possible, in words and deeds.  

Similarly, Modi has begun to articulate India’s new China-imperative of non-confrontational but candid relations with China as far as feasible. If pursued vigorously over time, these matching initiatives will be conducive to genuine rapprochement between the two Asian neighbours, whose boundary dispute is still far from being settled. For the moment, though, the gain is an improved climate for Sino-Indian dialogue. Both China and India have primary and secondary reasons for seeking such a near-term modus vivendi.

For Xi, the prime driver is his own world-view of establishing China’s connectivity with countries near and far. In his calculus, such connectivity radiates from China and ranges from conventional infrastructure to the digital and other forms of the current Fourth Industrial Revolution.

As in Sherlock Holmes’ inspirational homily to Watson, it is an “elementary” insight that Xi will stand a better chance to achieve his global endeavours if China can have peaceful and stable relations with its three most important neighbours – India, Russia and Japan. This will help Xi in his current and future competition with the United States (US), the lingering global superpower. So, Xi began his charm offensive towards India as far back as in May 2015 when, for the first time, China recognised India as a “major power”.[i] 

However, China did not make much headway in humouring India for two reasons. Xi did not accept what he evidently saw as Modi’s assertive demands that China support India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group and uphold the Indian view about neighbouring Pakistan, Beijing’s “all-weather strategic partner”, as the source of terror.

Regardless of the merits of the Indian and Chinese arguments on these two issues, Xi found that Modi was willing to risk a major military confrontation with China at Doklam (Dong Lang) in the harsh Himalayan terrain in mid-2017. Bloodless but very tense, the 73-day Sino-Indian standoff erupted over India’s objections to what China saw as its legitimate road connectivity project in that area.

The snowballing crisis was defused through diplomacy involving civilian and military officials on both sides. As a follow-up, Xi palpably decided that he should try to bring India to his side in the emerging global context of Sino-US competition which, if not managed properly by both countries, could spiral out of control. This should explain Xi’s secondary consideration of trying to keep Modi in good humour before India gravitated further towards the US ‘camp’.          

For India too, a China-imperative of non-confrontational and cordial relations is very important. Discernibly, Modi’s prime calculation is that India, facing many challenges at home and abroad, can hope to benefit from a far-from-satisfactory but reasonably-stable relationship with China. Towards this end, he has so far reciprocated what he sees as Xi’s post-Doklam overtures towards India.

Modi’s secondary consideration has two dimensions. He can hope to make political capital at home through such stability, if sustained, along the disputed India-China boundary. No less important, too, is his signalling to the US that Delhi desires a modus vivendi with Beijing, despite Xi’s vigorous support for Pakistan, with which India has had a long, contentious relationship.[ii]

Modi’s China-imperative should serve as a wake-up call for US President Donald Trump, who has shown an increasing penchant for dealing with Xi combatively. Trump can either leave Modi to deal with Xi on his own or instead explore a US-India effort to balance China.

Viewed from this big-picture perspective, the strategic content of this new flurry of China-India smiles will be determined over time by a few geopolitical realities that are now slowly emerging.

Three emerging realities are significant, although their course and consequences are unpredictable. These emerging factors are: (1) the development of a more business-like and cordial Sino-Indian engagement; (2) anxieties about a possible global trade war; and (3) the unexplored potential of the Russia-India-China trilateral dialogue growing into a quadrilateral with the participation of the US.

First, the near-term prospects for a more balanced China-India dialogue have been set in motion since the Xi-Modi informal summit in the Chinese city of Wuhan in late April 2018.[iii] Interestingly, a Chinese scholar, Yin Bin, noted that the inherent “fragility” of the generally positive Sino-Indian relationship of the 1950s could be traced to the “heavy reliance on high-level political contacts” between the two sides.[iv] In contrast, Xi has said that his three meetings with Modi so far in 2018 have “provided a top-level design for bilateral ties in a macroscopic perspective and a timely fashion”.[v]

Unsurprisingly, in this emerging context, Chinese State Councillor and Defence Minister Gen. Wei Fenghe struck an upbeat note during his talks with Modi in Delhi on August 21, 2018. Wei said the current relations between the two militaries “have been highlighted by friendly coexistence” under the “guidance” of leaders on both sides.[vi] Modi, too, underscored the “sensitivity and maturity” of the two countries in handling their differences over the unsettled Sino-Indian boundary.[vii]

Second, the latest move to “consolidate” the Sino-Indian “development partnership” will be watched closely during the current uncertainties over global trade.  The fresh US-China trade talks, which ended on August 23, have not cleared the air for business as before. Importantly in this context, China and India have already opposed the “trade protectionism” of the US.

Third, could the Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral dialogue grow into a quadrilateral mechanism that includes the US? Russian President Vladimir Putin has pointed out that the RIC has already expanded once and became BRICS, a forum consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.  Additionally, could RIC be enlarged into a new quad with the US included?

The US, India, Japan and Australia have already hinted they will work together as a “quadrilateral” group or ‘Quad’ to reshape the Asian geopolitical and geo-economic order. A different ‘Quad’ consisting of Russia, India, China and the US, while difficult to imagine today, may be a more necessary forum for Asian and global security. The new Sino-Indian cordiality is welcome, in itself, and as a means towards a larger dialogue among the big powers.

[i] Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China, Chinese Embassy in India, Joint Statement between the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of India, 2015/05/28

[ii] It is too early, at this writing, to judge whether China will be able to guide the new Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, and the Pakistani military to seek genuine rapprochement with India.

[iii] Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China, China, India reach broad consensus in informal summit, 2018/04/30

[iv] Yin Bin, in China-India Relations: Review and Analysis, Volume 1, Chief Editor: Ye Hailin, Translator: Chen Mirong, Polisher: William White, Social Sciences Academic Press (China) and Paths International Ltd., UK, 2014, pp. 9 and 10  

[v] Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China, Xi says China to boost closer development partnership with India, 2018/07/27

[vi] Ministry of National Defense, People’s Republic of China, China, India vow to strengthen military exchanges, cooperation

[vii] PMINDIA website, Gen. Wei Fenghe, State Councillor and Defence Minister of China calls on PM, 21 Aug, 2018

The views expressed in the article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy or the National University of Singapore.

News Reports

Bilateral relations

India natural partner in Belt and Road: China
The Economic Times, August 27
India is a natural partner in China's Belt and Road project and should not be paranoid about its key artery in the disputed Kashmir as it won't affect Beijing's neutral stance, a top Chinese government official said on Monday (August 27).

India and China to increase military cooperation after defence talks
South China Morning Post, August 24
India and China have agreed to expand their military ties and enhance interaction to ensure peace on their common border, India said after a meeting between the old rivals’ defence ministers.

Vajpayee was an ‘architect’ of India’s China policy: Chinese scholars
The Times of India, August 17
From the 1998 nuclear tests that angered China to initiating a new boundary talks mechanism in 2003, Atal Bihari Vajpayee is regarded here as an architect of India’s China policy, according to Chinese scholars.

'Understand India' Programme To Be Launched In China To "Demistify" India
NDTV, August 15
India plans to launch an 'Understanding India' programme in China to "demystify" the country and create a better understanding of it. Despite being immediate neighbours, India and China lack people-to-people contact and cultural exchange.

India, China resolved dispute over large segment of border: Ram Madhav
The Economic Times, August 15
Senior BJP leader Ram Madhav said today (August 15) that a dispute over a “large segment” of the border with China has been resolved, barring the Western sector and the negotiations were moving in the positive direction.

News Reports

China and India in the Regions

Peace In Indian Ocean A Priority For Indian Foreign Policy: Sushma Swaraj
NDTV, August 28
Emphasising the economic importance of the Indian Ocean, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj on Monday (August 27) said nurturing a climate of peace and stability in this region is an important priority for India's foreign policy.

China steps up courting of Africa ahead of summit
Nikkei Asian Review, August 27
China is expanding its influence campaign in Africa as it prepares to host a summit with leaders from the continent, ready to offer economic assistance as part of its Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.

China hails first-time participation of India, Pakistan in SCO counter-terror drill
The Times of India, August 27
China on Monday (August 27) welcomed the participation of militaries of India and Pakistan for the first time in a mega anti-terror drill of the SCO and hoped that the two countries could enhance dialogue and cooperation both bilaterally and within multilateral mechanisms to maintain regional peace and stability. 

China aims to build houses, roads in Sri Lanka north to extend sway
Reuters, August 24
China wants to build houses and roads in Sri Lanka’s north, much of which is in a state of disrepair nearly a decade after the end of civil war, Chinese and Sri Lankan officials said, in a bid to expand it influence beyond the island’s south.

China offers to play ‘constructive role’ to ease India-Pakistan tensions
The Hindu, August 22
China on Wednesday (August 22) offered to play a “constructive role” to ease tensions between India and Pakistan following the change of guard in Islamabad.

News Reports

Trade and Economy

Singapore RCEP meet: 'India not defensive, China slowing talks'
The Economic Times, August 30
India is not defensive about the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a government official said ahead of a key ministerial meeting of trade agreement starting Thursday (August 30).

FTA misuse by China hitting us: Stainless steel industry
The Times of India, August 29
A surge in imports from China and countries with which India has signed free trade agreements (FTAs) is heaping misery on the domestic stainless steel manufacturers, prompting them to seek more permanent measures to stem inflows.

India Plans to Fill Gap Left by U.S. Exports to China
Bloomberg, August 28
India has drawn a list of goods it can export to China, replacing U.S. exports that have become costlier in light of the trade spat between the world’s two biggest economies, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

China, India, Indonesia may represent half of world economy by 2060: Report
Business Standard, August 24
By 2060, China and India’s share of the global economy will be larger than that of all OECD countries combined. If one adds Indonesia, about half of the world’s economy will be represented by the three Asian countries.

News Reports

Energy and Environment

India’s Thirst For Oil Is Outpacing China
Oilprice, August 28
Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said last week that India will pass China as the country with the largest demand for oil by 2024, accounting for about 30 percent of total global oil demand growth.

China pollution study rings alarm for India
The Times of India, August 28
A joint study conducted by Yale and Peking Universities on long-term exposure to air pollution on 32,000 Chinese could hold relevance for India, where roughly 25 lakh people died in 2015 due to causes arising out of air pollution.

India Likely To Continue Importing Iran Oil Despite US Sanctions
NDTV, August 24
With India seeking ways to maintain its bilateral ties with Iran in the face of US sanctions reimposed on the Gulf nation, a London-based international law firm said on Thursday that Iran''s major energy consumers like India and China have indicated they intend to find a way to go around the US sanctions and keep the Iran oil lines open.

Slowdowns in China and India eat away at Asian oil demand
Reuters, August 15
Oil demand from Asia’s biggest importers, China and India, is growing more slowly than expected, exposing weakness in two of the world’s largest economies and eroding a key pillar of global petroleum prices amid trade tensions.

Analyses

Chinese defence minister’s India visit — much ado about nothing
Money Control, August 27

By Jabin T Jacob - New-Delhi based China analyst

There remains great mistrust between the two militaries on the ground, which cannot be overcome by cosmetic exchanges of visits and personnel.

Can India Help the United States Against China?
Lawfare, August 26

By Oriana Skylar Mastro, Assistant Professor of Security Studies, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and Jeane Kirkpatrick Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI).

The Indo-Pacific strategy elevates India’s importance to the United States as a key partner in the region and calls on New Delhi to play a larger role as “a nation that can bookend and anchor the free and open order in the Indo-Pacific region.”

The Chinese model is failing Africa
Financial Times, August 26

By Luke Patey, Senior Researcher, Danish Institute for International Studies

Nearly a decade ago, China surpassed the US to become Africa’s largest trading partner. Last year, its two-way trade hit $170bn — four times larger than US-Africa commerce. But after more than a decade of vaulting growth in trade, finance and investment, China’s weighty engagement is jeopardising future development prospects in Africa.

India still wary of the Quad amid its own China ‘reset’
The Strategist, August 24

By Aakriti Bachhawat – Research Intern, APSI

The conciliatory change in New Delhi’s attitude to Beijing that started in February is nothing but tactical manoeuvring. India wants to maintain its strategic autonomy by hedging its bets on multiple partners.

The foreign policy legacy of Atal Bihari Vajpayee
Livemint, August 20

By Abhijnan Rej, Senior Fellow, Observer Research Foundation

High international politics and diplomacy was, by all accounts, former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s enduring passion. A natural grand strategist, Vajpayee’s realism was tempered by restraint, leading him to craft a pragmatic foreign policy template for India that has endured till date.

Should Rising China-Nepal Military Ties Worry India?
The Diplomat, August 20

By Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Distinguished Fellow and Head of the Nuclear and Space Policy Initiative, Observer Research Foundation

While India can find some solace in the depth of New Delhi’s relations with Nepal, India’s concerns nonetheless have been growing about this new facet of the China-Nepal relationship that has seen an uptick, particularly in recent years.

Between conformity and innovation: China’s and India’s quest for status as responsible nuclear powers

Review of International Studies, Vol 44, Issue 3, July 2018, pp.482-503

By Nicola Leveringhaus, Lecturer, War Studies, King’s College London, and Kate Sullivan de Estrada, Associate Professor, International Relations of South Asia, University of Oxford.

China and India, as rising powers, have been proactive in seeking status as nuclear responsibles. Since the 1990s they have sought to demonstrate conformity with intersubjectively accepted understandings of nuclear responsibility within the global nuclear order, and have also sought recognition on the basis of particularistic practices of nuclear restraint. This article addresses two puzzles. First, nuclear restraint is at the centre of the pursuit of global nuclear order, so why have China and India not received recognition from influential members of the nuclear order for the full spectrum of their restraint-based behaviours? Second, why do China and India nonetheless persist with these behaviours? We argue that the conferral of status as a nuclear responsible is a politicised process shaped by the interests, values, and perceptions of powerful stakeholder states in the global nuclear order. China’s and India’s innovations are not incorporated into the currently accepted set of responsible nuclear behaviours because, indirectly, they pose a strategic, political, and social challenge to these states. However, China’s and India’s innovations are significant as an insight into their identity-projection and preferred social roles as distinctive rising powers, and as a means of introducing new, if nascent, ideas into non-proliferation practice and governance.